Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news and mixed stock reactions. The Dow is currently down 85 points while the Nasdaq has gained 11 points. The bond market is currently up 20/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point..

The first piece of news posted this morning was the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It revealed a 1.9% annual rate of growth that was lower than forecasts. Today’s release also revised the previous two quarters readings lower than previously announced, which dropped the last quarter of 2007 into negative growth. That was the first quarter of negative growth since 2001. Furthermore, today’s release also showed a much weaker than expected reading in a key inflation reading of the data. Overall, this report was very f avorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the day was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that matched forecasts of a 0.7% rise. This index measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits and is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation. Since it met forecasts its result shave had little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing this morning.

Also worth noting was the Labor Department’s posting of last week’s new claims for unemployment benefits. They were expected to say that 395,000 new claims for benefits were filed but announced that 448,000 we filed. That number is well above the benchmark 400,000 and the second consecutive week of being above it. That raises concerns in the market that the employment sector is weakening, especially with tomorrow’s major report coming. If true, it would be very good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow mornings brings us the release of two important reports, including one of the most important reports we see each month. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new jobs added to the economy and the average hourly earnings reading. The ideal situation for the bond market is rising unemployment, a loss of new jobs and little increase in earnings. This report is considered to be one of the single most important releases that we see each month.

While the today’s GDP release can be considered the single most important report in general, it is posted quarterly rather than monthly like the Employment report. Tomorrow’s Employment report is expected to show that the unemployment rate rose to 5.6% last month while approximately 75,000 new jobs were lost and a 0.3% increase in average earnings. The unemployment rate probably will not be much of a factor if the new jobs number varies from forecasts. However, due to the importance of the payroll numbers, we will undoubtedly see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index for July. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives about business conditions during the previous month. A reading above 50.0 means that more surveyed executives felt that business improved than those who said it had worsened. It is expected to show a decline to a reading of 49.2. A smaller than expected reading would be great news for the bond market and would likely improve mortgage rates tomrorow, assuming that the Employment report doesn’t give us an major surprises.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now … This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as stock extend their gains. The stock markets are showing strength yet again with the Dow up 112 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32, which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates at yesterday’s levels.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today that is relevant to mortgage rates, but there are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 2.3% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

We also will get weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 395,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline form the previous week’s number, but this data usually is not of much importance to the markets unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking pl ace over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and sizable stock gains. The stock markets are showing strength with the Dow up 122 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s economic news came from the Conference Board who posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. It showed a reading of 51.9 and also revised last month’s final reading higher by 0.6. This means that consumer confidence was higher the past two months than many had thought. This is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because consumer spending is tied to consumer confidence.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow that is relevant to mortgage rates. Look for the stock markets to influence bonds and mortgage rates. If s tocks rise again, bonds will likely fall and mortgage rates inch higher. If stocks give back today gains, we should see mortgage rates improve tomorrow.

There are two reports scheduled for release Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 2.3% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflatio n concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 68 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release today, but there are several important reports due this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first piece of news comes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop tomorrow. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 50.0, which would be a lightly lower readin g than June’s reading.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release Wednesday that is relevant to mortgage rates. However, there are two on the schedule for Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 1.8% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Employment and ISM reports being released, but Thursday’s GDP release is highly important to the markets and could heavily influence mortgage pricing also.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

There are several important reports scheduled for release this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first piece of news comes late Tuesday morning when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 50.0, which would be a lightly lower reading than June’s reading.

There is no governmental economic news scheduled for release Wednesday that is relevant to mortgage rates. However, there are two on the schedule for Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 1.8% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

Friday mornings brings us the release of two important reports, including one of the most important reports we see each month. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new jobs added to the economy and the average hourly earnings reading. The ideal situatio n for the bond market is rising unemployment, a loss of new jobs and little increase in earnings. This report is considered to be one of the single most important releases that we see each month.

While the GDP can be considered the single most important report in general, it is posted quarterly rather than monthly like the Employment report. Friday’s report is expected to show that the unemployment rate rose to 5.6% last month while approximately 68,000 new jobs were lost and a 0.3% increase in average earnings. The unemployment rate probably will not be much of a factor if the new jobs number varies from forecasts. However, due to the importance of the payroll numbers, we will undoubtedly see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing.

Also scheduled for release Friday is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index for July. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executi ves about business conditions during the previous month. A reading above 50.0 means that more surveyed executives felt that business improved than those who said it had worsened. A smaller than expected reading would be great news for the bond market and would likely improve mortgage rates Friday, assuming that the Employment report doesn’t give us an major surprises.

Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Employment and ISM reports being released, but Thursday’s GDP release is highly important to the markets and could heavily influence mortgage pricing also.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday’s bond market has opened in well in negative territory as traders erase a sizable rally in bonds yesterday. The stock markets are in positive territory after their large sell-off yesterday helped fuel the bond rally. The Dow is currently up 51 points while the Nasdaq has gained 17 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will erase yesterday’s late rally and prevent much of an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates.

None of today’s economic news did anything to help bond prices or mortgage rates. The first was June’s Durable Goods Orders that showed an increase in orders for big-ticket items of 0.8%. This was much larger than the small decline that forecasted, indicating that the manufacturing sector may be stabilizing.

The second report was the revision to July’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. It showed a reading of 61.2 that was well above the earlier reading of 56.6. This means that consumers w ere much confident about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is considered bad news for bonds because higher levels of confidence usually means that consumers are more willing to make large purchases, helping to fuel consumer spending.

The third was June’s New Home Sales report, but it was the least important of the three. It showed a much higher level of sales than was expected and revealed an upward revision to May’s sales numbers. Fortunately, this data is not considered to be of high importance or we may have seen bonds even lower than current levels.

With exception to Monday, next week is packed with relevant economic reports. Included in the long list of reports scheduled for release is the single most important quarterly report and the arguably the most important month report. In addition, there are several other pieces of data that may influence the markets and mortgage rates next week. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following sizable stock losses and weaker than expected economic news. The Dow is down 110 points and the Nasdaq has lost 16 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

Neither of today’s economic releases ere considered to be high importance to the markets unfortunately, or we may have seen more of an improvement to mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors said that home resales in the U.S. fell 2.6% last month. This was a larger drop than was forecasted. In addition, the Labor Department reported that 406,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a much larger increase than was expected and again crosses the important 400,000 benchmark.

Yesterday afternoon’s Beige Book release showed that economic activity slowed in most regions and that infla tion continued to rise. The slowing economic activity is good news for bonds, but the inflationary pressures are a threat to bonds and could drive prices lower and mortgage rates higher if they continue to rise. Overall, it didn’t reveal any significant surprises.

The results of today’s 5-year Treasury Note auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the auction was met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading and could lead to lower mortgage rates. However, if the sale was met with a poor demand, we could see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise revise higher.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of two of the week’s most important reports. The first will come from the Commerce Department when they will post June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Current forecasts are currently calling for a decline of 0.3% after showing little change in new orders during May. This data gives us an indication of manu facturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. These are products that are expected to last at least three years. A stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning. If it reveals a larger than expected drop, mortgage rates should improve tomorrow.

Also being released tomorrow is the final revision to July’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. Unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate of 56.6, I think the markets will probably shrug this news off.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot b e guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.