Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 31st

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, allowing mortgage rates to recover part of this week’s losses. The stock markets are showing small gains with the Dow up 25 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

None of today’s three economic reports gave us any major surprises. The Labor Department said that the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits, rose 0.7% last quarter. This was expected and has not had much of an influence on the markets.

September’s Personal Income and Outlays report revealed a 0.2% rise in income and a 0.3% decline in spending. The income reading was slightly higher than expected, meaning that consumers had a little more income to spend that thought. The drop in spending was bigger than forecasted, meaning consumers were spend ing less than thought. The income reading can be considered negative news for bonds, but the drop in spending offsets that news. Therefore, this report also failed to push the markets either way.

The week’s last report was the University of Michigan’s revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. It showed a reading of 57.6 that nearly matched forecasts of no change to the 57.5 preliminary reading. Again, this data had little impact on the markets and mortgage rates.

Next week is fairly active in terms of economic releases for the markets to digest. Monday brings us the first with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index. This is usually the first report we see each month and is considered to be pretty important. It is expected to show that manufacturer sentiment slipped further in October.

The rest of the week also brings us some important data including October’s employment numbers next Fr iday. Look for more details on next week’s releases and events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 30th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of a stronger than expected GDP reading and early stock gains. The Dow has risen 132 points while the Nasdaq has gained 30 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

This morning’s big news was the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. It revealed a decline of 0.3%, its worst reading in seven years. It also was only the fifth time in 17 years that the quarterly GDP has fallen. However, analysts were expecting to see a 0.5% decline, therefore, the numbers weren’t as bad as expected. Also contributing to this morning’s losses was a key inflation reading in the data that showed a larger than expected inc rease. This raised some inflation concerns and contributed to the weak opening in bonds.

The Labor Department posted weekly unemployment figures this morning, saying that 479,000 new claims were filed last week. This was nearly unchanged from the previous week, but was slightly higher than forecasts. However, there is no comparison between the importance of this data and the GDP. With the GDP being considered a very highly important report, the markets ignored the weekly claims figures.

There are three reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.7%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

September’s Personal Income and Outlays report will also be posted early tomor row. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.1% in income and decline in outlays of 0.2%.

The week’s last report comes at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow when the University of Michigan updates their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. Current forecasts show this index remaining nearly unchanged from this month’s preliminary reading of 57.5. This index is important because it helps us measure consumer confidence, which is believed to indicate consumers’ willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be important.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 29th

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of a half-point rate cut by the Fed in an effort to stimulate economic activity. The move was widely expected by market participants, but has still boosted stocks and hurt bonds. The Dow is currently up 218 points while the Nasdaq has gained 44 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this afternoon’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed was still concerned about the economy and was expecting further weakness. This led to speculation that the Fed may lower short-term rates again in the future despite the fact that the Federal Funds rate is now at a record low of 1.00%. It has not been this low since June 2003 to June 2004. The fact that it appears the Fed has conceded more measures may be needed and is ready to act has helped drive stock prices higher during afternoon trading. This has made bonds less attractive to investors and is the reason we likely will see upward revisions to mortgage rates this afternoon.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that Durable Goods Orders for September rose 0.8% when they were expected to fall 1.0%. This means that manufacturing activity was stronger than expected, which is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and therefore is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Tomorrow’s release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for a decline of approximately 0. 5% in the GDP. If this report shows a larger decline, I am expecting to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates to fall tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 29th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors await today’s FOMC meeting adjournment. The stock markets were trading higher earlier but are now in negative territory after yesterday’s huge rally. The Dow is currently down 32 points while the Nasdaq is down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates slightly higher.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that Durable Goods Orders for September rose 0.8% when they were expected to fall 1.0%. This means that manufacturing activity was stronger than expected, which is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, since the markets are directing their attention to today’s FOMC results, the higher than expected orders has not had much of an impact on this morning’s mortgage rates.

The FOMC meeting began yesterday and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET today. There is now a pretty large consensus that the Fed w ill lower key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but what is being debated is the size of the cut. Some analysts are calling for a .750 cut while the majority think a half-point reduction is coming. This makes the post meeting statement even more important than usual as traders will try to figure out if the Fed thinks this is the last cut or if they are prepared to make another in the future.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the Fed move and the post-meeting statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guarant eed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Oct. 28th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory despite a new record low reading on consumer confidence. The stock markets are showing sizable gains as investors speculate about another Fed rate cut tomorrow. The Dow is currently up 115 points while the Nasdaq has gained 9 points. The bond market is currently down 22/32, which with yesterday’s late weakness will push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .750 of a discount point.

The Conference Board reported late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell this month to its lowest reading ever. The reading of 38.0 was significantly lower than the 52.0 that was forecasted and indicates that consumers are too concerned about their own financial situations to make large purchases in the near future. This is actually favorable data for the bond market and mortgage rates, but traders are preparing for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and reacting to this morning’s stock gain s. This has prevented bonds from moving higher as a result of this report.

The week’s FOMC meeting began today and will adjourn tomorrow afternoon. There is now a pretty large consensus that the Fed will lower key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but what is being debated is the size of the cut. Some analysts are calling for a .750 cut while the majority think a half-point reduction is coming. This makes the post meeting statement even more important than usual as traders will try to figure out if the Fed thinks this is the last cut or if they are prepared to make another in the future. The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon trading.

Tomorrow also brings us the release of some important economic data. The Commerce Department will post Durable Goods Orders for September at 8:30 AM tomorrow. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factor ies for big-ticket items. Analysts are currently calling for a drop in new orders of approximately 1.0%. If we see a smaller than expected decline in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Oct. 27th

Monday’s bond market has opened fairly flat with the stock markets mixed and despite stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are in another volatile session after the international markets that had another significant sell-off. The Dow is moving in a range of 250 points between its high and low of the morning, but currently stands up 30 points. The Nasdaq is also fluctuating between positive and negative ground and is currently down 6 points. The bond market is up 2/32, but we will likely see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to movements late Friday.

Today’s only economic data is the week’s least important. September’s New Home Sales report was posted late this morning, showing an increase in sales of 2.7% when it was expected to reveal another decline. However, offsetting that increase was a downward revision to August’s sales figures. Still, this data is not considered to be of high importance and has not influenced bond trading or mortgage rates today.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the month of October. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a sizable decline in confidence from last month’s 59.8 reading, indicating that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. As long as the reading doesn’t exceed the forecasted 52.0, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

The week’s FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins tomorrow and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. Assuming the Fed stands pat and leaves rates unchanged, traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed’s next move. Since there is a fair amount of uncertainty and a lack of a strong consensus of what the Fed will do here, the move itself, if it happens, will likely cause plenty of volatility in addition to the post-meeting statement. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM Wednesday, so look for quite a bit of volatility during afternoon hours.

Overall, it is difficult to peg a single day of the week as being the most important but I am expecting to see plenty of movement in rates this week. The data being posted tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday is all very important to the markets. The FOMC meeting is the single most important event of the week, but we may see noticeable movement in mortgage rates several days this week. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my clo sing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Oct. 26th

This week is packed with economic releases and major events that will likely lead to a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing. There are seven reports scheduled for release along with another FOMC meeting. The first of the week’s news comes late tomorrow morning with the release of September’s New Home Sales. This data covers the remaining 15% of home sales that last week’s Existing Home Sales report tracked and is this week’s least important data. It is expected to show a decline in sales, but regardless of its results I am not expecting it to have a significant impact on mortgage rates tomorrow.

The first important data will be posted Tuesday morning with the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the month of October. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a sizable decline in confidence from last month’s 59.8 reading, ind icating that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. As long as the reading doesn’t exceed the forecasted 52.0, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

The week’s FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins Tuesday and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. Assuming the Fed stands pat and leaves rates unchanged, traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed’s next move. Since there is a fair amount of uncertainty and a lack of a strong consensus of what the Fed will do here, the move itself, if it happens, will likely cause plenty of volatility in addition to the post-meeting statement. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM Wednesday, so look for quite a bit of volatility during afternoon hours.

Wednesday morning, the Commerce Department will post Durable Goods Orders for September. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. Analysts are currently calling for a drop in new orders of approximately 1.0%. If we see a smaller than expected decline in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast.

The next relevant data is the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) early Thursday morning. The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and therefore is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Thursday’s release is the first and usually h as the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for a decline of approximately 0.5% in the GDP. If this report does show a decline, I am expecting to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates to fall.

There are three reports scheduled for release Friday. The first is the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.7%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

September’s Personal Income and Outlays report will also be posted early Friday. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making econ omic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.1% in income and decline in outlays of 0.2%.

The week’s last report comes at 10:00 AM ET Friday when the University of Michigan updates their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. Current forecasts show this index remaining nearly unchanged from this month’s preliminary reading of 57.5. This index is important because it helps us measure consumer confidence, which is believed to indicate consumers’ willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be important.

Overall, it is difficult to peg a single day of the week as being the most important. The data being posted Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday is a ll very important to the markets. The FOMC meeting is the single most important event of the week, but we may see noticeable movement in mortgage rates several days this week. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 24th

Friday’s bond market opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The stock markets are continuing their downward spiral with the Dow down 300 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently up 20/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

The only economic news released today was September’s Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors. They reported an increase of over 5% in home resales last month when the report was expected to show an increase of approximately 1%. This means that sales activity was stronger than expected last month. That can be considered a negative for bonds and mortgage rates, but the market seems to be giving that data little weight.

The recent rapid improvement in bonds has me concerned that we may see profit taking by traders that could push mortgage rates higher. It appears that there is no consensus in the markets regarding whether or not this is the bottom for the stock markets. It seems there is still room for the major indexes to fall further, but this may not necessarily mean that rates will improve as a result, indicating that the risk versus reward factor of continuing to float an interest rate is leaning heavily to the risk side in my opinion. Accordingly, please maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

Next week is packed with economic releases along with the next FOMC meeting. The first data comes Monday when we will get New Homes Sales for September. This is the sister report to today’s Existing Home Sales release and is also not considered to be of much importance to the markets. It is next week’s least important report.

The rest of the week brings us important reports every day. There is another FOMC meeting that adjourns W ednesday afternoon that will likely lead to plenty of volatility in the markets. Look for details on next week’s data and events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 23rd

Thursday’s bond market opened flat but has since slipped into negative ground following early gains in stocks. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday’s afternoon sell off that pushed the Dow down over 500 points and the Nasdaq down 80 points. I suspect that this morning’s rally may be short-lived so we should be looking for afternoon volatility again.

The Dow is currently up 180 points while the Nasdaq has gain 13 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point. If the stock markets due give back their current gains, we may see improvements to mortgage rates later in the day.

The only economic news released this morning was last week’s initial unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They reported that new claims rose to 478,000 last week, which was an increase of approximately 15,000. Analysts were expecting to see lit tle change form the previous week, meaning that the employment sector is still showing signs of weakness. This is good news for bonds, but this particular report is not considered to be of high importance because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of September’s Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight increase in sales from August to September.

The recent rapid improvement in bonds has me concerned that we may see profit taking by traders that could push prices lower and mortgage rates higher. It appears that there is no consensus in the markets regarding whether or not th is is the bottom for the stock markets. It appears there is still room for the major indexes to fall further, but this may not necessarily mean that rates will improve as a result. That means that the risk versus reward factor of continuing to float an interest rate is leaning heavily to the risk side in my opinion. Accordingly, please maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 22nd

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as investors continue to dump stocks this morning. The stock markets showing significant losses with the Dow currently down 324 points and the Nasdaq down 36 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by another .125 to .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, therefore the bond market is relying on stocks for direction. With stocks still falling, investors are eyeing bonds as a parking space for funds, at least temporarily. This has benefited mortgage rates this week, however, I don’t see that as a situation that will likely last long. Accordingly, I am shifting to a lock recommendation for immediate and short-term closings.

The only data scheduled for release tomorrow is weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. Analysts are expecting to see that 465,000 new claims were filed last week. This would be a slight increase from the previous week and would basically be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. But, since this data tracks only a week’s worth of claims, its influence on the markets is usually limited unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The only other data scheduled for release this week is September’s Existing Home Sales Friday morning. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight increase in sales from August to September.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking pla ce between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.