Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 31st

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following morning gains in stocks. The stock markets are looking to close a very rough year on a positive note with the Dow up 75 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32, but we will see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

The Labor Department did give us a surprise in this morning’s release of weekly unemployment figures. They reported that new claims for benefits fell drastically last week. They were expected to be at 575,000, but today’s release announced that only 492,000 new claims were filed. Fortunately, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets therefore the impact on mortgage rates has not been significant.

The bond market will close early today ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday tomorrow and will remain closed until Friday mo rning. The stock markets will also be closed tomorrow.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index will be released late Friday morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 35.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment fell from November’s 36.2. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.. . This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 30th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are contributing to the bond losses with early gains of 103 points in the Dow and 24 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but with yesterday’s afternoon weakness we should see this morning’s mortgage rates move higher by approximately .750 of a discount point.

The Conference Board released their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December late this morning. It showed a reading of 38.0 that was much weaker than the 45.2 that was expected and was a new record low for the index. This indicates that consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situation than many had thought. That is actually good news for bonds, generally speaking, because consumers are less likely to make large purchases if they are concerned about their own financial situations.

The only data we will get tomorrow are weekly unemployment numbers from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 575,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week’s spike of 586,000. However, this data usually is not influential in setting mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The bond market will close early tomorrow ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday and will remain closed Thursday. The stock markets will also be closed Thursday.

The markets will reopen Friday morning along with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 35.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment fell from November’s 36.2. A smaller rea ding will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 29th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses. The stock markets are starting the week off in negative ground with the Dow down 80 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

This week brings us the release of only two pieces of economic news that are relevant to mortgage rates. It is another holiday-shortened week with the New Years Day holiday Thursday, so the data may have a heavier impact on trading than usual if it varies from forecasts by much. The bond market will close early Wednesday and possibly Friday as they did last week. With that type of schedule, many traders will not be working Wednesday or Friday, so any unexpected news or data may lead to a larger than usual reaction in the markets.

There is no relevant news scheduled for today. The first important release co mes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board will post its Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December. This is a pretty important release because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their personal financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely by market participants and can have a significant influence on mortgage rate direction. Current forecasts are calling for a minor increase confidence from November’s reading of 44.9. Analysts are expecting tomorrow’s release to show a reading of 45.2.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday. They will reopen Friday morning with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading below 50 means that more surveye d manufacturing executives felt that business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 35.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment fell from November’s 36.2. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 28th

This week brings us the release of only two pieces of economic news that are relevant to mortgage rates. It is another holiday-shortened week with the New Years Day holiday Thursday, so the data may have a heavier impact on trading than usual if it varies from forecasts by much. The bond market will close early Tuesday and possibly Friday as they did last week. With that type of schedule, many traders will not be working Wednesday or Friday, so any unexpected news or data may lead to a larger than usual reaction in the markets.

There is no relevant news scheduled for tomorrow. Look for any significant changes in stocks to drive bond trading and mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes remain fairly calm, it is possible that bond prices and mortgage rates may follow suit. However, I still believe there is a possibility of seeing year-end weakness in bonds that may drive mortgage rates higher. Accordingly, I am still recommending to proceed with caution of still floating an interest rate.

The first important release comes late Tuesday morning when the Conference Board will post its Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December. This is a pretty important release because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their personal financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely by market participants and can have a significant influence on mortgage rate direction. Current forecasts are calling for a minor increase confidence from November’s reading of 44.9. Analysts are expecting Tuesday’s release to show a reading of 45.2.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday. They will reopen Friday morning with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 35.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment fell from November’s 36.2. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

Overall, I am still pessimistic towards mortgage rates, at least short-term. The week’s two reports are both considered important and can influence mortgage rates. If they report weaker than expected results, we could see rates close the week lower than last Friday’s closing levels. But, even if we get results that match forecasts, I suspect we will see selling in bonds and traders make year-end adjustments to their portfolios that could push mortgage rates higher for the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 26th

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, but not enough to affect this morning’s mortgage rates. The stock markets relatively calm with the Dow up 28 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but I am not expecting to see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates compared to Wednesday’s rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The bond market is expected to close at 2:00 PM ET again, therefore, I think we will see a relatively calm day in bonds and mortgage rates. Unless the stock markets make a drastic move from current levels, mortgage rates should close at this morning’s levels.

The bond market will reopen Monday morning for regular trading hours, but it is also a holiday-shortened week. We can expect a similar trading schedule as this week’s, with only two full trading days. We may see some volatility early in the week as investors make some year-end trans actions to finalize their end-of-year portfolios. I suspect that without some favorable data or influences, bonds may move lower the first part of the week. This could lead to higher mortgage rates the first couple of days.

There are only two relevant reports scheduled for release next week but both are considered to be of fairly high importance. Neither of them will be posted Monday, but December’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released Tuesday and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index Friday morning. Both of these can influence the markets enough to change mortgage rates.

Look for more details on next week’s schedule and events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days … Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 24th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite mixed results from this morning’s economic data. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 46 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently 7/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

There were two monthly reports released this morning along with weekly unemployment numbers. The first was November’s Durable Goods Orders that showed orders for big-ticket products fell 1.0% last month. This was much stronger than the 3.1% decline that was forecasted, however, October’s 6.2% drop was revised to a decline of 8.4%. That revision help offset some of the surprise from November’s orders, this was still negative news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the day was November’s Personal Income and Outlays data. The income portion of the report gave us favorable results with 0.2% decline in personal income and a downward revision of 0.2% to October’s income reading. This means that consumers had less income to spend than was expected during those two months. The bad news came in the spending portion of the report that showed a 0.6% decline in consumer spending. It was expected to show a 0.8% drop, meaning consumers spent more than thought.

The third piece of news posted this morning was last week’s unemployment numbers that showed 586,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was nearly 30,000 above what analysts had forecasted. Unfortunately, this data is not given much weight because it tracks a single week’s worth of claims.

The bond market will close early today and remain closed tomorrow in observance of the Christmas Day holiday. The stock and bond markets will be open Friday, but with no relevant economic news scheduled for release and another early close for bonds, I am not expecting to see much m ovement in rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 23rd

Tuesday’s bond market has opened flat after this morning’s economic data failed to show any major surprises. The stock markets are reacting similarly with the Dow down 16 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close. The bond market is also practically unchanged but we will still see an increase in this morning’s rates of approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

The first of today’s four reports was the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP that showed a 0.5% decline. This matched forecasts but was not likely to significantly impact mortgage pricing anyhow. The data is quite aged by now and next month we get the initial reading on this quarter’s activity, so analysts do not pay much attention to this version of the report unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

November’s Existing and New Home Sales reports were both posted this morning and both revealed larger than expected drops in sales. This indicates that the housin g sector is still softening and not near the ?floor? that many are attempting to predict. However, this is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weakening housing sector will make slow the economic recovery and keeps inflation fears to a minimal.

The last report of the day did reveal a higher than expected level of consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for December was revised and showed a higher level of sentiment than the previous estimate. The reading of 60.1 means that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situation than many had thought. This is considered bad news for bonds because rising sentiment means that consumers are more apt to make large purchase sin the near future. Still, this report ha snot had a significant impact ton today’s trading.

The last event of the day is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. If the sale is met with a decent demand from investors, we could se e interest in other notes and bonds such as mortgage-related bonds increase during afternoon trading. But, a lackluster interest from investors may also lead to weakness in bonds and possible upward afternoon revisions to mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of November’s Durable Goods Orders and the Personal Income and Outlays report. The Durable Goods Orders report tracks new orders for big-ticket items and is expected to show a drop of 3.1%. The Income and Outlays report is likely to show that personal income was unchanged from October and that spending fell 0.8% last month. Weaker readings would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is an early close tomorrow ahead of the Christmas Day holiday. The markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the holiday but will be open Friday. The bond market will close early Friday also. However, I am expecting to see a very quiet couple of days as many traders are home for the holidays.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 22nd

Monday’s bond market has opened flat with no relevant economic news on tap for today and a fairly uneventful morning in stocks. The stock markets are showing losses, but they can be considered pretty minor compared to recent sessions. The Dow is currently down 17 points while the Nasdaq has lost 20 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from Friday’s close, which should keep this morning’s mortgage pricing near Friday’s levels.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly or quarterly economic reports and a fairly important Treasury auction tomorrow. Most of the data being released is not considered to be of high importance to the markets, but with the Christmas holiday falling during the week we can expect very thin trading. We also may see profit-taking by some firms to capture the sizable gains in bonds this year as it winds down, so by no means can we be guaranteed a quiet week.

There is no relevant economic news schedul ed for release today, but four of the week’s reports are scheduled to be posted tomorrow. The first is the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP. I don’t think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month’s first revision showed that the economy contracted at a 0.5% annual pace during the quarter and this month’s revision is expected to show the same.

The next two are November’s Existing and New Home Sales reports. The Existing Home Sales release will come from the National Association of Realtors while the New Home Sales data is a Commerce Department report. Both give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, neither are considered to be of high importance. Both of the reports are expected to show a drop in sales.

The fourth report of the day also comes late morning when the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December is posted. Current forecasts are calling for a small downward revision from the preliminary reading of 59.1. This is important because rising consumer confidence indicates that consumers may be more apt to make large purchases in the near future. An unexpected upward revision could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

The last event tomorrow is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. If the sale is met with a decent demand from investors, we could see interest in other notes and bonds such as mortgage-related bonds increase during afternoon trading. But, a lackluster interest from investors may also lead to weakness in bonds and possible upward afternoon revisions to mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking pl ace over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 21st

This significantly shortened trading week brings us the release of six monthly or quarterly economic reports and a fairly important Treasury auction. Most of the data being released is not considered to be of high importance to the markets, but with the Christmas holiday falling during the week we can expect very thin trading. This means that we may see a larger reaction than normal to some news because there will be fewer traders working and less transactions being made. We also may see profit-taking by some firms to capture the sizable gains in bonds this year as it winds down, so by no means can we be guaranteed a quiet week.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. Five of the week’s events are scheduled for Tuesday. The first is the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP. I don’t think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month’s first revision showed that the economy contracted at a 0.5% annual pace during the quarter and this month’s revision is expected to show the same.

The next two are November’s Existing and New Home Sales reports. The Existing Home Sales release will come from the National Association of Realtors while the New Home Sales data is a Commerce Department report. Both give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, neither are considered to be of high importance. Both of the reports are expected to show a drop in sales.

The fourth report of the day also comes late morning when the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December is posted. Current forecasts are calling for a small downward revision from the preliminary reading of 59.1. This is important because rising consumer confidence indicates that consumers may be more apt to make large purchases in the near future. An unexpected upward revision could lead to higher mortga ge rates Tuesday.

The last event on Tuesday that is worth noting is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. If the sale is met with a decent demand from investors, we could see interest in other notes and bonds such as mortgage-related bonds increase during afternoon trading. But, a lackluster interest from investors may also lead to weakness in bonds and possible upward afternoon revisions to mortgage pricing.

The remaining two reports are scheduled for release Wednesday at 8:30 AM. This is when November’s Personal Income and Outlays data and Durable Goods Orders will be posted. The Income and Outlays report will give us an important measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data usually has a fairly significant impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for no change in income and a 0.8% decli ne in spending. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, we should see the bond market improve and mortgage rates drop slightly Wednesday

The last piece of data will be the Commerce Department’s Durable Goods Orders for November. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last at least three years. Analysts are expecting the report to show a decline in the neighborhood of 3.1%. A larger decline would indicate that the manufacturing sector was weaker than many had thought. This would be good news for the bond market and should drive mortgage rates lower. However, a smaller than expected drop in orders could lead to mortgage rates moving higher early Wednesday morning.

Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets and mortgage rates, but nothing drastic unless we get some surprising results from the week ’s data. The bond market will close early Wednesday and Friday and be closed all day Thursday. This means that firms that trade bonds will likely be keeping only a skeleton staff most of the week. Still, my biggest fear between now and the end of the year will be selling bonds to capture profits from the significant rally of the past several weeks. That could lead to bonds falling and mortgage rates rising.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 19th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains and a lack of economic data to drive trading. The stock markets are reacting favorably to news of an approval to use bailout funds U.S. automakers. However, the rally has lost some steam as the major indexes are well off earlier highs. The Dow is currently up 95 points but was up 180 points earlier while the Nasdaq has gains 25 points.

The bond market is currently down 14/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates. I still think there is not much chance of rates improving considerably lower than current levels, at least not in the immediate future. Accordingly, we should proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the immediate future.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. I am expecting the bond market and mortgage rates to remain near current levels, as long as the stock markets don’t rally past earlier highs or give up much more of their current gains. As long as stocks remain fairly calm this afternoon, I believe mortgage pricing will also.

Next week brings us the release of a handful of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are only two that can be considered of somewhat high importance to mortgage rates and neither are scheduled for release Monday. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best intere st of all/any other borrowers.