Tuesday’s bond market has opened in fairly flat following the release of mixed economic news. The stock markets are also relatively calm with the Dow up 20 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged. The bond market is close to yesterday’s closing level, which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates unchanged from yesterday.

The more important of today’s two releases was the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late this morning. It showed a reading of 56.9 that was higher than forecasts had called for. This means that consumer sentiment was stronger this month than thought, which is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

July’s New Home Sales data was also posted this morning, revealing fewer home sales than analysts had thought. This indicates that the new construction portion of the housing industry continues to weaken. However, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets or mortgage rates.

The final release of the day is the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member’s views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed’s next move may be. If mortgage rates will be influenced by this, it will come during late afternoon trading.

The Commerce Department will post July’s Durable Goods Orders tomorrow morning, giving us an important measure of manufacturing sector strength. This data tracks orders at U.S. factories for big ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A weaker reading than the expected 0.1% rise that is expected would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This would be good news for bonds and should lead to lower mortgage rates.

If I were considering fi nancing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after the stock markets kicked the week off in selling mode. The stock markets are showing fears of the banking crisis after another bank failed over the weekend. This has the Dow down 127 points and the Nasdaq down 34 points. The bond market is benefiting as investors seek safe-haven in bonds. This has pushed the bond market up 28/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by .125 - .250 of a discount point.

Today’s only economic data was July’s Existing Home Sales report that showed a larger increase in home resales than was expected. This could be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets. Therefore, the stock losses are influencing bond trading more than this data is.

The Conference Board will post this month’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM tomorrow. This index measures co nsumer willingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy. A decline would indicate that consumers may not be making large purchases in the immediate future. That sign of economic weakness should drive bond prices higher, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 53.0, which would be an increase from July’s 51.9.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow is July’s New Home Sales data. This report is the least important release of the week. It will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand like Monday’s Existing Home Sales report does and also usually doesn’t have a major impact on bond prices or mortgage rates.

The third and final event for tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show so me divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member’s views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed’s next move may be.

Overall, it is a shortened week and will probably be a very busy week for mortgage rates. The bond market is expected to close at 2:00 PM ET Friday ahead of the Monday holiday. We will likely see the most activity in rates tomorrow morning, but Wednesday and Thursday are also important. If we manage to get weaker than expected results in the key reports and the Fed minutes don’t show any surprises, we should see mortgage rates close the week lower than tomorrow’s opening levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… T his is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of eight relevant economic releases for the bond market to watch. This will also be a shortened week in the bond market as a result of the Labor Day holiday next Monday. This makes it quite likely that we will see a fair amount of volatility in the financial markets this week, and therefore quite possibly mortgage rates.

Tomorrow brings us the first piece of data for the markets to digest with July’s Existing Home Sales. The National Association of Realtors will release this report, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It covers approximately 85% of home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts forecasts. It is expected to show a small increase from June’s sales.

The Conference Board will post this month’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM Tuesday. This index measures consumer wi llingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy. A decline would indicate that consumers may not be making large purchases in the immediate future. That sign of economic weakness should drive bond prices higher, leading to lower mortgage rates Tuesday. It is expected to show a reading of 53.0, which would be an increase from July’s 51.9.

Also scheduled for release Tuesday is July’s New Home Sales data. This report is the least important release of the week. It will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand like Monday’s Existing Home Sales report does and also usually doesn’t have a major impact on bond prices or mortgage rates.

The third and final event for Tuesday is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members. It will be interesting to see some of the Fed member’s views on the economy and inflation and if they will hint what the Fed’s next move may be.

The Commerce Department will post July’s Durable Goods Orders Wednesday morning, giving us an important measure of manufacturing sector strength. This data tracks orders at U.S. factories for big ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. A weaker reading than the expected 0.2% rise that is expected would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This would be good news for bonds and should lead to lower mortgage rates.

Thursday’s only data is the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Last month’s preliminary reading revealed a 1.9% pace of growth. A smaller than expected upward revision should help lower mortgage rates Thursday, especially if the inflation portion of t he release does not get revised higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 2.7% annual rate. There will be a final revision issued next month, but it probably will have little impact on mortgage rates.

Friday is also a multi-release day with the release of July’s Personal Income and Outlays and the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment posting. The income and spending data measures consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is expected to show a decline of 0.1% in income and a 0.3% increase in spending. Weaker than expected numbers would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

August’s revision to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is also due Friday morning. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show an upward revision from August’s preliminary reading of 61.7. If it revises lower, consumers were less confident about their perso nal financial situations than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, it is a shortened week but probably will be a very busy week. The bond market is expected to close at 2:00 PM ET Friday ahead of the Monday holiday. We will likely see the most activity in rates Tuesday morning, but Wednesday and Thursday are also important. If we manage to get weaker than expected results in the key reports and the Fed minutes don’t show any surprises, we should see mortgage rates close the week lower than tomorrow’s opening levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following a strong open in stocks. The stock markets are posting sizable gains during morning trading with the Dow up 180 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, but Fed Chairman Bernanke did make a speech this morning at a conference in Wyoming. In it he implied that the problems in the credit markets may not be over and that they will continue to affect the economy. He added that the drop in oil prices was encouraging and should help ease inflation concerns.

Generally speaking, his words did not come as a surprise to many. They did however, help some to push back their estimated date of a Fed rate increase. Many had predicted the Fed would raise rates sometime this fall to help control inflationa ry pressures, but now feel that the increase may not come until the first half of next year. But, today’s negative open in bonds is more a result of the stock gains than his speech.

Next week has a fairly busy calendar with economic data scheduled for release each day. None of the reports are considered to be extremely important, but a couple of them are important enough to affect mortgage rates if their results differ from forecasts. The week starts off fairly light with July’s Existing Home Sales report late Monday morning. It is one of the least important reports of the week, but since it is the only one scheduled for that day we may see enough of a reaction in the markets to affect mortgage pricing if it varies greatly from forecasts.

It appears there are seven reports scheduled for release next week that are worth watching, in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly p review.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite stock gains and a lack of economic news on the day’s agenda. The stock markets are showing solid gains after earlier weakness this week. The Dow is currently up 68 points and the Nasdaq up 21 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The bond market will likely be influenced by stock swings if we are to see any afternoon changes to mortgage rates today. Stocks of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have come under fire again and have posted considerable losses this week as investors become more concerned about their stability and the housing market. This could influence mortgage rates also if the fears continue to rise and should be kept on our radar.

Early tomorrow morning, the Labor Department will post last week’s new unemployment claims numbers. They are expected to fall by 12,000 claims from the previous week to 438,000 new claims. A larger than expected number of claims would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, this is not one of the more important reports we see each week. Therefore, unless the number varies greatly from forecasts its impact on rates will probably be minimal.

The Conference Board will give us the last piece of monthly data for the week late tomorrow morning when it releases its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening. However, a weaker than expected reading means that the economy may slow in the near future, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases inflation concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow if the stock markets remain calm. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.3% in the index.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following much stronger than expected inflation readings. Preventing a much weaker open in bonds is another round of early stock losses with the Dow down 130 points and the Nasdaq down 25 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, but we will likely see a slight improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates as a result of strength late yesterday.

Today’s big news was July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that revealed a surprising jump in inflation prices. The 1.2% jump in the overall reading and the 0.7% rise in the core data reading were both much larger than analysts had expected. The overall reading now pushes the increase over the past year to its highest level since 1981. Even the core data reading was the largest monthly jump since November 2006. However, since oil prices have fallen by nearly $30 a barrel, there is a general consensus that these inflation readings may have peaked. Therefore, the bond market has been able to minimize its losses this morning.

The second report of the day was July’s Housing Starts data that showed starts of new homes fell to their lowest level in 17 years. This was a larger drop than analysts had expected and indicates that the housing sector may still be weakening. That would be good news for the bonds and mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. The Conference Board will give us the last piece of data for the week late Thursday morning when it releases its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening. However, a weaker than expected reading means that the economy may slow in the near future, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases inflation concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow if the stock markets remain calm. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.3% in the index.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly following a negative open in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week in the red with the Dow down 56 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates near Friday’s levels.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. However, there are two reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. The first is July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that gives us an indication of inflation at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is more important because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices that can change significantly from month to month. Current forecasts call for an increase of 0.6% in the overall and 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger increase may renew inflation concerns and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. If it reveals smaller than expected increases, we could see mortgage rates improve as a result.

The Conference Board will give us the first data late tomorrow morning when it releases its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening. However, a weaker than expected reading means that the economy may slow in the near future, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases inflation concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow if the stock markets remain calm.

The second is July’s Housing Starts data. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. However, it isn’t considered to be of high importance to the bond market or mortgage pricing and usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It is the least important of the week’s reports and is expected to show a sizable drop in new starts.

The Conference Board will give us the last piece of data for the week late Thursday morning when it releases its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening. However, a weaker than expected reading means that the economy may slow in the near future, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases inflation concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow if the stock markets remain calm. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.2% in the index.

Overall, look for tomorrow to be the busiest day of the week with the PPI being released. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. Therefore, keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a larger than expected increase in consumer prices and early stock gains. The stock markets are showing noticeable gains after initially opening in the red. The Dow is currently up 115 points while the Nasdaq has gained 22 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

This morning’s release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that consumer prices rose 0.8% last month, doubling analysts’ forecasts. Fortunately, the core data reading was much closer to forecasts with an increase of 0.3%. These figures raised inflation concerns since they pushed the annual rate of inflation to a 17-year high. However, the bond market seems to be reacting in a much more subtle way than one would expect since inflation is the number one nemesis for long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds.

The Labor Department reported this morning that 450,000 for new benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the upward revision of 460,000 of the previous week, but was still higher than the 436,000 that were expected. This can be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, since this data only tracks a week’s worth of claims its’ impact on the markets is usually limited.

There are two pieces of data scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is Industrial Production data for July. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be of moderately high importance and may cause movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently expecting to see no change in production between June and July. An increase in output could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow, while a weaker than expected figure should help push rates lower.

The second report of the day will come from the University of Michigan who will release its Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending is likely to continue, we may see mortgage rates move higher tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday’s bond market has opened up slightly after this morning’s economic data showed no surprises. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow currently down 98 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department gave us July’s Retail Sales numbers early this morning, saying that sales fell 0.1% last month. This matched forecasts and hasn’t had much of an impact on this morning’s bond trading or mortgage rates. The portion of the report that excludes more volatile auto sales showed that sales rose 0.4%, which was slightly below forecasts. That could be considered a bit of good news for bonds, but has not influenced trading as of yet.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month since it measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The more important of the two is the core data because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Current forecasts call for an increase of 0.4% in the overall and 0.2% in the core data reading. Smaller than expected increases should lead to a bond rally and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than expected readings will likely cause a spike in mortgage pricing.

Also tomorrow is the weekly release of new unemployment claims by the Labor Department. This release normally has little impact on the bond market or mortgage rates but due to the previous week’s spike to 455,000 claims, analysts will likely be watching this data a little closer than usual. Another increase could send bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower, assuming the CPI doesn’t reveal stronger than expected inflation readings.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory with the stock markets posting sizable losses during morning trading. The Dow is currently down 121 points while the Nasdaq is down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

Today’s only economic news was June’s Trade Balance report that revealed a much smaller than expected trade deficit. The report showed that it stood at $56.8 billion compared to the $61.9 billion that was expected. However, this data is not considered to be of high importance to mortgage rates and has not had much of an influence on today’s pricing.

July’s Retail Sales data will be released early tomorrow morning. This data is very important to the financial markets and mortgage rates because it helps us measure consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any data related to it can cause a fair amount of movement in the markets. A larger decline than expected would indicate that consumers are spending less than previously thought, potentially slowing the economy. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it eases inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.1%.

July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30 AM Thursday. The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month. It measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The more important of the two is the core data because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Current forecasts call for an increase of 0.4% in the overall and 0.2% in the core data reading. Smaller than expected increases should lead to a bond rally and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than expected readings will likely cause a spike in mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite early stock losses that are resulting from oil concerns. The Dow is currently down 42 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 5 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, but we will likely see a slight improvement to this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late Friday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, but the rest of the week brings us five reports for the bond market to digest. The first is June’s Trade Balance report tomorrow morning that gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week’s least important report and likely will have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a $61.9 billion deficit, but it will take a wide variance to directly influence mortgage pricing.

July’s Retail Sales data will be released early Wednesday morning. This data is very important to the financial markets and mortgage rates because it helps us measure consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any data related to it can cause a fair amount of movement in the markets. A smaller than expected increase would indicate that consumers are spending less than previously thought, potentially slowing the economy. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it eases inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.5%.

The most important data of the three is July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM Thursday. The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month. It measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The more important of the two is the core data because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Current forecasts call for an increase of 0.4% in the overall and 0.2% in the core data reading. Smaller than expected increases should lead to a bond rally and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than expected readings will likely cause a spike in mortgage pricing.

There are two pieces of data scheduled for release Friday. The first is Industrial Production data for July. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be of moderately high importance and may cause movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently expecting to see no change in production between June and July. N increase in output could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday, while a weaker than expected figure should help push rates lower.

The second report of the day will come from the University of Michigan who will release its Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending is likely to continue, we may see mortgage rates move higher Friday.

Overall, look for the most movement in bond prices and mortgage rates the middle part of the week. Wednesday or Thursday will likely turn out to be the most important days. If we get stronger than expected results in the Retail Sales and CPI releases, I fear that we may see mortgage rates spike higher fairly quickly. If those reports do further ease inflation concerns, I will likely be shifting to a float recommendation across the board. But, the risk versus reward comparison short-term still favors the risk side in my opinion, therefore, I am holding the lock recommendations for short-term closings for the time being.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following sizable stock losses. The stock markets are reacting to weak earnings news as the Dow fell 130 points and the Nasdaq lost 9 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us last week’s unemployment figures early this morning. They reported that 455,000 new claims for benefits were filed when analysts had predicted 420,000. This was a 6 year high for new claims and raises concerns that the employment sector is quickly weakening. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, since this data tracks only a week’s worth of filings it is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market.

Yesterday’s Treasury auction went fairly well and led to afternoon buying in bonds. Today’s sale will bring 30 year bonds to market and if investor demand is also strong we could see afternoon improvements in bonds again today. Results of the auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter will be released early tomorrow morning. It will give us an indication of employee output. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. I don’t see this being a big mover of mortgage pricing, but since it is the only data of the day it may influence rates slightly. Analysts are currently expecting to see an increase in productivity of 2.5%. A higher than expected reading could help improve bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as traders continue to digest yesterday’s events. Also contributing to this morning’s weakness was news of a much larger than expected quarterly loss and mortgage giant Freddie Mac. This raised concerns about the credit markets and the stability of the company and its sister entity Fannie Mae. The concern led to more selling in bonds in this morning and sizable increases to mortgage rates.

The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 21 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement that there was not a change to key short-term interest rates. It was the second consecutive meeting with no change and was widely expected. The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed was aware and considered the economic slowdown but also was quite concerned about the threat of inflation. Those words created concern in the bond market since inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments.

The next piece of news is tomorrow’s posting of weekly unemployment figures and those are not considered to be of high importance to the markets. This leaves the bond market to be influenced by stock and oil prices. If stocks continue to move higher, we may see bonds suffer and mortgage rates move higher until Friday’s data is posted. If the major indexes begin to fall, bond could benefit and drive mortgage rates lower.

Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter will be released Friday morning. It will give us an indication of employee output. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. I don’t see this being a big mover of mortgage pricing, but since it is the only data of the day it may influence rates slightly. Analysts are currently expecting to see an increase in productivity of 2.7%. A higher than expected reading could help improve bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

Today’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement that there was not a change to key short-term interest rates. This was the second consecutive meeting with no change and was widely expected. The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed was aware and considered the economic slowdown but also was quite concerned about the threat of inflation. That created concern in the bond market since inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments.

However, bonds have actually held up quite well during afternoon trading, at least so far. The stock markets have extended their earlier gains with the Dow up 275 points and the Nasdaq up 50 points. The bond market is near morning levels, so I am not expecting a change to mortgage rates unless bonds fall from current levels.

There was no relevant economic news posted this morning. Stock started the day off strong as oil prices continue to f all. High fuel costs have been noted by many sources as a contributing factor to the slowing economy. As oil prices fall well off their recent highs, that concern seems to be easing. This leads to better expectations for economic activity and corporate earnings.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. The next piece of news is Thursday’s posting of weekly unemployment figures and those are not considered to be of high importance to the markets. This leaves the bond market to be influenced by stock and oil prices. If stocks continue to move higher, we may see bonds suffer and mortgage rates move higher until Friday’s data is posted. If the major indexes begin to fall, bond could benefit and drive mortgage rates lower.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taki ng place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory due to early stock gains. The stock markets are off to a strong start with the Dow up 165 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.

There was no relevant economic news posted this morning. Stock traders are showing their optimism in the economy following another decline in oil prices. High fuel costs have been noted by many sources as a contributing factor to the slowing economy. As oil prices fall well off their recent highs, that concern seems to be easing. This leads to better expectations for economic activity and corporate earnings.

Today’s FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET and is expected to bring no change to key interest rates. If that is indeed the result, I expect top see little reaction in the markets . However, the post-meeting statements seem to have more of an influence on the markets than the rate adjustments themselves, or a lack of one in many cases. Accordingly, we may still see some volatility in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing during afternoon hours even if the Fed leaves interest rates alone.

Look for an update to this report after the markets have an opportunity to react to the news.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday’s bond market has opened down slight following the release of stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are also showing losses with the Dow down 18 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

Today brought us the release of two pieces of economic news. The first was June’s Personal Income and Outlays that revealed a 0.1% and a 0.6% rise in spending. Both readings were stronger than expected, indicating that consumers have more money available to spend and are using it. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

The second report of the day was June’s Factory Orders. It showed a much larger increase in new orders than was expected. The 1.7% jump in orders was a full percentage point higher than analysts had expected. That means that the manufacturing sector may be strengthening faster than many had thought, which is also bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

The rest of week brings us little economic data that is likely to affect mortgage rates. However, we do have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting tomorrow. The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM and is expected to yield no change to key interest rates. Usually, the post-meeting comments seem to have more of an influence on the markets than the rate adjustments themselves, or a lack of one in many cases.

Bond traders will be watching the post meeting statement very carefully. Generally speaking, a hint of rate hikes in the future will be construed as an indication that inflation is still a concern and would likely lead to bond selling and increases to mortgage rates. If the statement gives an indication that the Fed is not as concerned with inflation as previously noted, the bond mar ket should rally, leading to lower mortgage rates.

Overall, I am expecting to see a choppy week in trading and mortgage rates. We will likely see the most movement in rates tomorrow with the FOMC meeting. Wednesday’s Treasury auction may also affect rates during afternoon trading that day, but I suspect that the rest of the week will be driven by stock market gains or losses.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data that are likely to affect mortgage rates. However, the biggest event of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Tuesday. We may see some pressure in bonds tomorrow as investors prepare for the meeting, but most traders will likely make their moves post-meeting Tuesday.

The first important release is June’s Personal Income and Outlays data tomorrow morning. The Income & Spending report helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. If it shows sizable increases, bond selling could lead to higher mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.1% in income and an increase of 0.5% in spending.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow is June’s Factory Orders data. This report helps us measure manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for both durable and non-durable goods during the month of June. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders report that tracks only orders for big-ticket items. Since a significant portion of the data was released last week, this report may not have as big of an impact on the markets as you may think. Analysts’ are expecting to see an increase of approximately 0.7% in new orders.

The FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM Tuesday. It is expected to yield no change to key interest rates. Usually, the post-meeting comments seem to have more of an influence on the markets than the rate adjustments themselves, or a lack of one in many cases. Look for the statement to lead to volatility during afternoon trading if it hints at what the Fed’s next move may be.

Bond traders will be watching the post meeting statement very carefully. Generally speaking, a hint of rate hikes in the future will be construed as an indication that inflation is still a concern and would likely lead to bond selling and increases to mortga ge rates. If the statement gives an indication that the Fed is not as concerned with inflation as previously noted, the bond market should rally, leading to lower mortgage rates.

Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter will be released Friday morning. It will give us an indication of employee output. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. I don’t see this being a big mover of mortgage pricing, but since it is the only data of the day it may influence rates slightly. Analysts are currently expecting to see an increase in productivity of 2.7%. A higher than expected reading could help improve bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.

Also worth noting are two important Treasury auctions this week. The sale of 10-year Notes will be held Wednesday while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday. We often see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as the firms pa rticipating prepare for them. However, as long as they are met with decent demand from investors, the firms usually buy them back. This tends to help recover any presale losses. But, if the sales are met with a lackluster interest from investors- particularly international buyers, the bond market may move lower after the results are posted. Those results will be announced at 1:00 PM each sale day. If there will be revisions to mortgage rates because of the results, look for them to be made during afternoon trading Wednesday and/or Thursday.

Overall, I am expecting to see a choppy week in trading and mortgage rates. We will likely see the most movement in rates Tuesday with the FOMC meeting. Wednesday’s Treasury auction may also affect rates during afternoon trading. I suspect that the rest of the week will be driven by stock market gains or losses.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly following the release of this morning’s economic news that had mixed results but leaned more towards unfavorable to bonds. The stock markets are also in negative ground with the Dow down 74 points and the Nasdaq down 30 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which will likely have little impact on this morning’s mortgage rates. However, if bonds fall any further we likely will see mortgage rates revise higher later today.

The Labor Department gave us this morning’s big news with the release of July’s Employment figures. They said that the unemployment rate moved higher by 0.2% to a four year high of 5.7%. Analysts were expecting an increase but only to 5.6%. This was the part of the report that was favorable to bonds.

The negative portion came in the number of payrolls added or lost during the month. Analysts were expecting to see a loss of 75,000 jobs last month, but today’s report showe d a loss of 51,000 payrolls. It also revised June’s loss upward by 11,000 jobs. However, this was the seventh consecutive monthly decline in payrolls, which indicates that the employment sector remains soft. Generally speaking, that is good news for bonds even though its not as good as we had hoped for.

Today’s second release was the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index for July. It showed a stronger than expected reading of 50.0. Analysts were expecting to see a larger decline to a reading of 49.2. This means that more surveyed manufacturers felt business had improved during the month than was expected. That is also considered to be a negative for bonds, but was not enough to create much concern in the market.

Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic reports for the markets to digest, beginning with July’s Personal Income and Outlays early Monday morning. This report is considered to be moderate-to-high in import ance and can influence bond trading and mortgage rates. However, I would not expect to see a significant move in rates solely as a result of this report.

The rest of the week includes data on manufacturing and worker productivity along with another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Look for more details on this meeting and next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news and mixed stock reactions. The Dow is currently down 85 points while the Nasdaq has gained 11 points. The bond market is currently up 20/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point..

The first piece of news posted this morning was the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It revealed a 1.9% annual rate of growth that was lower than forecasts. Today’s release also revised the previous two quarters readings lower than previously announced, which dropped the last quarter of 2007 into negative growth. That was the first quarter of negative growth since 2001. Furthermore, today’s release also showed a much weaker than expected reading in a key inflation reading of the data. Overall, this report was very f avorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the day was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that matched forecasts of a 0.7% rise. This index measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits and is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation. Since it met forecasts its result shave had little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing this morning.

Also worth noting was the Labor Department’s posting of last week’s new claims for unemployment benefits. They were expected to say that 395,000 new claims for benefits were filed but announced that 448,000 we filed. That number is well above the benchmark 400,000 and the second consecutive week of being above it. That raises concerns in the market that the employment sector is weakening, especially with tomorrow’s major report coming. If true, it would be very good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow mornings brings us the release of two important reports, including one of the most important reports we see each month. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new jobs added to the economy and the average hourly earnings reading. The ideal situation for the bond market is rising unemployment, a loss of new jobs and little increase in earnings. This report is considered to be one of the single most important releases that we see each month.

While the today’s GDP release can be considered the single most important report in general, it is posted quarterly rather than monthly like the Employment report. Tomorrow’s Employment report is expected to show that the unemployment rate rose to 5.6% last month while approximately 75,000 new jobs were lost and a 0.3% increase in average earnings. The unemployment rate probably will not be much of a factor if the new jobs number varies from forecasts. However, due to the importance of the payroll numbers, we will undoubtedly see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index for July. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives about business conditions during the previous month. A reading above 50.0 means that more surveyed executives felt that business improved than those who said it had worsened. It is expected to show a decline to a reading of 49.2. A smaller than expected reading would be great news for the bond market and would likely improve mortgage rates tomrorow, assuming that the Employment report doesn’t give us an major surprises.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now … This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as stock extend their gains. The stock markets are showing strength yet again with the Dow up 112 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32, which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates at yesterday’s levels.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today that is relevant to mortgage rates, but there are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 2.3% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

We also will get weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 395,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline form the previous week’s number, but this data usually is not of much importance to the markets unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking pl ace over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and sizable stock gains. The stock markets are showing strength with the Dow up 122 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s economic news came from the Conference Board who posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. It showed a reading of 51.9 and also revised last month’s final reading higher by 0.6. This means that consumer confidence was higher the past two months than many had thought. This is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because consumer spending is tied to consumer confidence.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow that is relevant to mortgage rates. Look for the stock markets to influence bonds and mortgage rates. If s tocks rise again, bonds will likely fall and mortgage rates inch higher. If stocks give back today gains, we should see mortgage rates improve tomorrow.

There are two reports scheduled for release Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 2.3% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflatio n concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 68 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release today, but there are several important reports due this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first piece of news comes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expec