Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Mar. 9th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Mar. 9th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. However, stocks have given back those gains to currently stand close to Friday’s closing levels. The Dow is currently up 4 points while the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30 year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, but this does not mean that we can expect to see a quiet week in mortgage rates. We could very well see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, but rates are likely to mo ve several days this week.

The most important of the three reports will be posted Thursday morning when February’s Retail Sales data is released. This report is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month’s report is expected to show a decline in sales of approximately 0.4%. If it reveals a larger decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals an increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise Thursday morning.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Thursday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of bot h sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. But I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week regardless of the auction results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Tags: 10 year treasury note, bond, bond auctions, closing, economic releases, economy data, lock, mortgage market, mortgage markets, mortgage rates, negative territory, retail sales data, stock gains, Thursday, U.S., week, year

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 11th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 11th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected numbers in some minor economic reports and a fairly uneventful morning in stocks. The stock markets are flat with the Dow currently nearly unchanged and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

Neither of today’s reports are considered to be market movers, so their results have had little impact on this morning’s mortgage pricing. The first was October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report that showed a trade deficit of $57.2 billion. This was much larger than the $53.5 billion deficit that was expected. However, we have not seen this news affect trading or mortgage rates today.

The second was last week’s unemployment claims figures by the Labor Department. They reported that 573,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, grea tly exceeding forecasts. This is also a 26 year high for new claims, meaning that the employment sector may still be weakening. This is generally good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but since the data tracks only a week’s worth of claims it usually does not heavily influence the markets.

Also worth mentioning is the 10-year Treasury Note auction today that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand for the sale, we may see bonds move higher and mortgage rates revise lower during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release lf November’s Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts call for it to show a 2.0% decline in sales from October’s levels. If it reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates should fall as a result. A stronger than expected reading could fuel stock market gains and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning.

Also tomorrow and just as important as the sales data, the Labor Department will release November’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If tomorrow’s release reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker tha n expected numbers, the bond market should fair well and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are showing a 2.0% drop in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data.

The fourth and final report of the week is December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly. However, with the Retail Sales and PPI reports out before this data, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage rates much. It is expected to show a reading of 55.0, which would be a small decline from last month’s final reading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my c losing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 10 year treasury, 10 year treasury note, balance report, bond, bond prices, economic reports, employment sector, lackluster interest, lock, market movers, mortgage rates, tomorrow, U.S., week, year treasury note

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 10th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 10th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following a strong opening in stocks. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday’s sell-off with the Dow currently up 120 points and the Nasdaq up 26 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, but we will likely still see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be posted early tomorrow morning along with weekly unemployment figures. The Trade Balance report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $53.5 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

The Labor Department will post last week’s unemployment claims figures tomorrow also. They are expected to show that 525,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. While a larger number would be good news for bonds, the truth is that this data is not very influential to bonds and mortgage rates because it covers only a week’s worth of claims. But, with no highly important data scheduled for release, if it varies much from forecasts we may see bonds react enough to slightly impact mortgage rates.

Also, there is a 10-year Treasury Note auction tomorrow that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand for the sale, we may see bonds move higher and mortgage rates revise lower during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

Friday morning brings us the release of a couple of important reports. The two most important are November’s Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. The sales report tracks consumer spending while the PPI gives us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Both can lead to large swings in the markets and mortgage pricing. The third report of the day will be December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, but it less important than the first two.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 10 year treasury, 10 year treasury note, balance report, bond, closing, lackluster interest, lock, mortgage rates, negative territory, producer price index, producer price index ppi, Release, report, Trade, U.S., unemployment claims, unemployment figures, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 9th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 9th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened flat with no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 103 points and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount due to weakness late yesterday.

This week is moderately busy in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release. There are four on the agenda but two of them are considered to be very important that can heavily influence the markets and mortgage pricing. In addition, there is a 10-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Since all of the data is scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, the most movement in rates will likely be the latter part of the week.

There is no relevant economic n ews scheduled for release today or tomorrow. The first data is October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early Thursday morning. This report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $54.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

Friday brings us the release of all of this week’s important data with November’s Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) being posted. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates Friday, but I believe the general atmosphere for mortgage rates is still negative.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only m y opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 10 year treasury, 10 year treasury note, balance report, bond, bond prices, closing, economic releases, first data, lock, producer price index, producer price index ppi, refinancing a home, Release, Thursday, Trade, U.S., week, year treasury note

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 8th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 8th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive despite early stock gains. The stock markets are starting the week off strong with the Dow up 276 points and the Nasdaq up 45 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .500 of a discount due to weakness late Friday.

This week is moderately busy in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release. There are four on the agenda but two of them are considered to be very important that can heavily influence the markets and mortgage pricing. In addition, there is a 10-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Since all of the data is scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, the most movement in rates will likely be the latter part of the week.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today, tomorrow or Wednesday. The first data is October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early Thursday morning. This report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $54.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

Overall, expect to see a pretty volatile week in the financial markets and mortgage pricing with the most movement Thursday and Friday. Friday’s Retail Sales and PPI reports can cause a great deal of movement in rates. Due to the expected volatility, I am holding the current lock recommendations. However, please maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 10 year treasury, 10 year treasury note, balance report, bond, bond prices, closing, economic releases, first data, lock, mortgage rates, pricing, refinancing a home, Release, stock gains, Thursday, U.S., week

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 7th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 7th

This week is moderately busy in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release. There are four on the agenda but two of them are considered to be very important that can heavily influence the markets and mortgage pricing. In addition, there is a 10-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Since all of the data is scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, the most movement in rates will likely be the latter part of the week.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow, Tuesday or Wednesday. October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be posted early Thursday morning. This report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $54.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

Th e first important data of the week comes Friday morning with the release of November’s Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts call for it to show a 1.4% decline in sales from October’s levels. If it reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates should fall as a result. A stronger than expected reading could fuel stock market gains and push mortgage rates higher Friday morning.

Also Friday and just as important as the sales data, the Labor Department will release November’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it e xcludes more volatile food and energy prices. If Friday’s release reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, the bond market should fair well and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are showing a 1.8% drop in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

The fourth and final report of the week is December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly. However, with the Retail Sales and PPI reports out before this data, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage rates much. It is expected to show a reading of 58.0, which would be an increase from last month’s final reading .

Overall, expect to see a pretty volatile week in the financial markets and mortgage pricing with the most movement Thursday and Friday. Friday’s Retail Sales and PPI reports can cause a great deal of movement in rates. Due to the expected volatility, I am holding the current lock recommendations. However, please maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 10 year treasury, 10 year treasury note, balance report, bond, core data, economic releases, lock, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, Release, release tomorrow, stock market gains, Thursday, U.S., week

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Sep. 7th

This week brings us the release of four pieces of economic data, with three of them likely to affect mortgage rates. There is no relevant data scheduled for release until Thursday and the most important reports are all scheduled for release Friday. Therefore, look for the biggest changes to rates the latter part of the week. The first report of the week is not considered to be of high importance. July’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted Thursday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $58.0 billion, which would be an increase from June’s $56.8 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week’s releases, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates. Also worth noting is the 10-year Treasury Note auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET Thursday. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve Thursday afternoon.   Friday brings us the release of three pieces of relevant data. The first is the release of August’s Retail Sales report. It will give us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase in sales. If we see a higher level of spending than is forecasted, the bond market will most likely fall and mortgage rates will rise. However, a weaker than expected reading could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Friday. The second important piece of data Friday morning is the release of Augus t’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This report will give us a very important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are currently calling for a 0.3% decline in the overall index, and a rise of 0.2% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and lead to an increase in mortgage rates Friday morning.   The last report of the week comes from the University of Michigan. Their consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers’ willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial si tuations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 63.9. Overall, the latter part of the week will likely be pretty active for the bond market and mortgage rates. Friday’s Retail Sales and PPI reports are the week’s most important and make Friday the biggest day of the week. If we see weaker than expected readings in that data, we should see mortgage rates move lower for the week. However, stronger than expected readings will likely drive bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher. I am holding the float recommendations for now, but could change if there is a lackluster interest in the 10-year auction or if Friday’s data shows stronger than expected results. We may also see the stock markets significantly influence bond trading, so look for sizable movement in the major indexes to also lead to a possible change in recomme ndations. This weekend’s news about the Fed taking control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely drive their stock prices lower and could affect the broader markets. That may start the week off with lower mortgage rates. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 10 year treasury, 10 year treasury note, augus, balance data, bond, bond prices, bond trading, Float, international investors, producer price index, producer price index ppi, Release, relevant data, spending, Thursday, U.S., week