Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Feb. 6th

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Feb. 6th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of a fairly concerning Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the news with the Dow up 180 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 7.6% last month. The 0.4% increase was more than expected and indicates that the employment sector is weakening at a faster pace than many had thought. While this is favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates, it gives little hope for the American worker.

The report also showed a larger than expected loss of jobs during the month. The 598,000 loss was the worst since December 1974 and brings the last three month total to 1.8 million. That’s the worst three month performance since the end of World War II and raises concerns about the rest of 2009. It is becoming more likely that we may set some new records this year that are not exactly worth bragging about.

The average earnings portion of the report didn’t reveal many surprises at an increase of 0.3%. However, despite this morning’s bond favorable data, stocks are reaping the benefits during morning trading. The weaker than expected results in the employment report did not surprise me, but the reaction in bonds was disappointing.

Next is pretty light in terms of economic releases, but it does bring us the release of one very important report. There are no relevant reports scheduled for release Monday. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, bond, bond market, closing, economic releases, employment report, employment sector, lock, negative territory, rate, refinancing a home, Release, relevant reports, report, U.S., unemployment rate, world war ii

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Feb. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Feb. 5th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of favorable economic reports. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 44 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Both of this morning’s important releases gave us favorable results. Even weekly unemployment numbers that are not considered highly important came in weaker than expected. The Labor Department said that 626,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was the largest weekly filing since October 1982 and helps support the theory that tomorrow’s monthly employment report will show bleak numbers.

The two more important reports were December’s Factory Orders and 4th Quarter Productivity numbers. The factory orders data showed a larger than expected drop of 3.9% in new orders. This was the fifth consecutive mo nthly decline in orders, which is a first for the report. Analysts were expecting to see a decline of 3.0%, meaning manufacturing activity is slower than thought. In addition, today’s report also revised November’s decline in orders from 4.6% to 6.5% that is now the largest monthly decline since July 2000.

The 4th Quarter Productivity and Costs data was the third piece of news posted this morning. It showed a surprising jump of 3.2% in worker output. This was more than double what analysts had expected, meaning workers were more productive in each hour worked last quarter. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report. It will give us the unemployment rate, number of jobs lost or added to the economy last month and average hourly earnings. Analysts are expecting it to show that the unemployment rate jumped 0.3% to 7.5% last month while 500,000 jobs were lost. The average earnings reading is expected to show that earnings rose 0.3%. A higher unemployment rate and larger job loss would be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. If we do get favorable results, I would expect to see bonds rally and mortgage rates fall tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, average hourly earnings, bond, bond market, closing, decline, economic reports, employment report, favorable results, Float, mortgage rates, quarter productivity, rate, report, Unemployment, unemployment numbers, unemployment rate

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 9th

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 9th

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite stock weakness and news of a spike in the unemployment rate last month. The stock markets are reacting negatively to the employment data with the Dow down 109 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us December’s Employment report this morning, showing an unemployment rate of 7.2% last month. This was higher than the 7.0% that was expected and its highest level since January 1993. They also reported that 524,000 jobs were lost during the month. That reading practically matched forecasts, however, today’s release also revised November’s job loss from 533,000 to 584,000. Overall, we saw 2.6 million jobs lost last year, which was the most since 1945.

Both of those readings are generally favorable to bonds, but traders don’t seem to be in a buying mood. The average earnings reading of the report showed a 0.3% rise compared to the 0.2% that was expected. This could be negatively influencing trading to some degree, but it is my belief that a general lack of interest in bonds is more the culprit in today’s flat trading than anything else. If not, today’s headline numbers should have fueled a bond rally.

Next week brings us the release of several important reports including December’s Retail Sales data and two key inflation readings. There is no relevant data scheduled to be posted Monday or Tuesday, but every other day of the week has important releases scheduled. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Floa t if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, bond, bond market, closing, employment data, employment report, lock, rate, refinancing a home, relevant data, retail sales data, stock markets, today, unemployment rate, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 4th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 4th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of weaker than expected economic news and a lackluster open in stocks. The stock markets are currently mixed with the Dow down 15 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department said late this morning that October’s Factory Orders fell 5.1%. This was the third consecutive month of a decline in new orders and a larger drop than analysts had expected. Forecasts were calling for a drop of 4.5% in orders, meaning that the manufacturing sector was weaker than thought. While this is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, this data is no considered to be of high importance so its impact on trading and mortgage pricing was fairly minimal.

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department gave us last week’s weekly unemployment claim figures. They reported a drop in new claims, pegging the total at 509,000 compared to forecasts of 540,000 new claims. But, since this data tracks only a week’s worth of new claims, it is also not considered to be of high importance to the markets.

The Labor Department will also post November’s Employment report early tomorrow morning. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for another upward change in the unemployment rate to 6.8%, payrolls down approximately 325,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 6.8%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings portion.

Regardless of its results, look for tomorrow morning’s r eport to cause a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage rates, especially if they vary much from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: amoun, average earnings, average hourly earnings, bond, bond market, closing, labor department, lock, mortgage rates, mortgage shoppers, rate, Unemployment, unemployment claim, unemployment rate, upward change

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite another round of stock losses and favorable economic news. The stock markets are continuing yesterday’s late selling that drove the Dow down 486 points and the Nasdaq down 98 points. The Dow has currently lost another 174 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 41 points. The bond market has fluctuated this morning between positive and negative ground, but currently stands down 11/32. This should mean that this morning’s mortgage rates will be approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s rates.

This morning’s release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading revealed a larger than expected increase of 1.1% in employee output. This was slightly higher than forecasts, but is still considered to be good news for bonds because high levels if productivity allows the economy to grow without inflationary pressures rising.

The second piece of data this morning was last we ek’s unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They reported that 481,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a drop from the previous week but higher than expected. This news isn’t the cause of this morning’s stock weakness, but today’s data was watched more closely due to the importance of tomorrow’s monthly report.

October’s Employment report will be released early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the im mediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, closing, employment report, Float, importance of tomorrow, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, negative territory, quarter productivity, rate, stock, stock losses, Unemployment, unemployment figures, unemployment rate, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are well into negative ground this morning with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but due significant strength in bonds late yesterday, we will likely see an improvement of approximately .500 – .625 in today’s mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release today. Tomorrow’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Lab or Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

Friday’s Employment report is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower. However, stronger than forecasted readings could give back this morning’s improvements to rates since the markets are expecting weak numbers.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the immediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, bond, bond market, closing, employment report, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, Productivity, productivity index, quarter productivity, rate, report, unemployment figures, unemployment rate, week, worker productivity

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 3rd

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 3rd

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite favorable results from the Employment report that was posted this morning. The stock markets are rallying as optimism about the House approving the bailout plan grows. The result is a 201 point gain in the Dow and the Nasdaq rising 57 points. The bond market is currently down 24/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. Unemployment Rate remained at 6.1% last month, as it was in August. The good news came in the form of the number of payrolls lost and the average earnings reading. Today’s report showed that 159,000 jobs were lost during the month, exceeding the 105,000 loss that was expected. It was also the ninth consecutive monthly loss and the biggest monthly decline since March 2003. The average hourly earnings was forecasted to rise 0.3%, but rose only 0.2%. Both of those readings are favorable to bonds and mortgage rates because they indicate that the employment sector is still weakening and that wages are not rising as quickly as thought.

I would not be surprised to see afternoon revisions to mortgage rates if stock prices continue to rise or give back their current gains. The bond market has been at the mercy of stocks the past two weeks and we may see more volatility this afternoon as the debate about the bailout measure continues. The House could bring the bill to a vote this afternoon, which may heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates. It the vote appears likely to pass, the stock markets will likely rise and bond prices will fall, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, if concern rises that the vote will fail, we could see stock prices fall and bond prices rise enough to improve mortgage pricing this afternoon.

Next week is very light in terms of economic releases scheduled. There is littl e relevant data on the calendar for next week, but we will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Look for more details on next week’s event s in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, average hourly earnings, bailout plan, bond, bond prices, closing, economic releases, employment sector, favorable results, lock, negative territory, point gain, stock, stock prices fall, U.S. Unemployment, vote