Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Friday’s bond market has opened on positive territory following the release of weaker than expected employment numbers. The stock markets are showing another weak morning with the Dow down 105 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by another .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department posted August’s Employment figures this morning, saying that the unemployment rate spiked to a five year high of 6.1% when it was expected to remain at 5.7%. They also reported that the economy lost 84,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecasted decline of 75,000. Both of these numbers are favorable to bonds and mortgage rates because they indicate a weakening employment sector.

A bit of negative news for bonds was the average hourly earnings readings that rose 0.4%. This was 0.1% higher than was expected, but not enough of a concern to prevent stocks from falling and bo nd prices from rising.

Next week is fairly light in terms of the number of economic reports scheduled for release. However, two of the reports on the calendar are considered to be very important to the markets and mortgage rates. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but look for more details on next week’s event sin Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday’s bond market has opened on positive territory following another round of early stock losses. The stock markets are posting sizable losses during early trading with the Dow down 220 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which with yesterday’s late gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

Yesterday afternoon’s release of the Fed Beige Book report indicated that the economy continues to slow and that inflationary pressure still remain elevated. Neither of those points really come as a surprise, but the comments about the economy slowing and words used such as soft and weak, helped bonds prices to move higher yesterday afternoon.

The 2nd Quarter Productivity numbers were posted this morning, showing a surprising jump in worker output. The 4.3% rise was well above forecasts and is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because higher levels of p roductivity allow the economy to grow without inflation fears.

The Labor Department reported that 444,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a sizable increase from the previous week, especially when analysts were expecting to see a decline in claims.

The Labor Department will also post August’s Employment report tomorrow morning. This report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and average hourly earnings during August. The ideal scenario for the bond market and mortgage rates is rising unemployment, a smaller than expected rise in new payrolls and earnings to remain unchanged. If we are that fortunate, I expect to see mortgage rates drop considerably tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate remain at 5.7% and 75,000 jobs lost in the month. Weaker then expected readings would be very good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

If I were considering f inancing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

There are several important reports scheduled for release this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first piece of news comes late Tuesday morning when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 50.0, which would be a lightly lower reading than June’s reading.

There is no governmental economic news scheduled for release Wednesday that is relevant to mortgage rates. However, there are two on the schedule for Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 1.8% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers’ costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

Friday mornings brings us the release of two important reports, including one of the most important reports we see each month. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new jobs added to the economy and the average hourly earnings reading. The ideal situatio n for the bond market is rising unemployment, a loss of new jobs and little increase in earnings. This report is considered to be one of the single most important releases that we see each month.

While the GDP can be considered the single most important report in general, it is posted quarterly rather than monthly like the Employment report. Friday’s report is expected to show that the unemployment rate rose to 5.6% last month while approximately 68,000 new jobs were lost and a 0.3% increase in average earnings. The unemployment rate probably will not be much of a factor if the new jobs number varies from forecasts. However, due to the importance of the payroll numbers, we will undoubtedly see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing.

Also scheduled for release Friday is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index for July. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executi ves about business conditions during the previous month. A reading above 50.0 means that more surveyed executives felt that business improved than those who said it had worsened. A smaller than expected reading would be great news for the bond market and would likely improve mortgage rates Friday, assuming that the Employment report doesn’t give us an major surprises.

Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Employment and ISM reports being released, but Thursday’s GDP release is highly important to the markets and could heavily influence mortgage pricing also.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of very few economic reports for the markets to digest. There are only three monthly reports scheduled for release that are likely to affect mortgage rates, but one of them is arguably the most influential single piece of data that we see each month. This is a shortened trading week with the markets closed Friday and an early bond market close Thursday in observance of the Independence Day holiday.

The first of the week’s three reports is of fairly high importance to the bond market. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June late Tuesday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting another reading below 50.0. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business remained close to unchanged from the previous month. Good news would be a weaker than expected reading.

The Commerce Department post May’s Factory Orders data late Wednesday morning, which is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was released last week. The biggest difference being that this week’s report covers both durable and non-durable goods. It usually doesn’t have as much of an impact on the bond market as the durable goods data does, but can lead to changes in mortgage pricing if it varies from forecasts. Current expectations are showing a 0.6% rise in new orders from April’s levels. A smaller than expected rise in orders would be considered good news for the bond market and should help lower mortgage rates slightly Wednesday.

The only other important release of the week comes early Thursday morning. The Labor Department will give us June’s unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very impo rtant readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets.

The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and no change in earnings. Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate to slip 0.1% to 5.4%, while 50,000 jobs were lost and a 0.3% rise in earnings.

Overall, I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week. Tuesday morning should bring some volatility with the ISM index, but Thursday’s report is definitely the most important of the week and can single handily lead to an improvement or increase in mortgage rates for the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.