Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 20th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 20th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well into negative territory despite early stock losses. The stock markets have also shown a weak opening with the Dow down 130 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently down 29/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 of a discount point over Friday’s rates. The financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of the Martin Luther King holiday.

Today’s weakness in bonds is a result of renewed concern about the supply of government debt that will need to be sold to cover the economic stimulus that President Obama has hinted at. The significant new debt that will be sold makes the current outstanding bonds less attractive to investors, leading to lower bond prices and higher mortgage rates this morning.

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This will likely leave the stock markets to be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week. Whether this is good or bad news for bonds depends if stocks rally or fall. If stocks move higher, bonds will likely suffer, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, if stocks show weakness, funds may shift into bonds, driving mortgage rates lower.

Today is Inauguration Day and while I don’t believe the ceremony or President Obama’s speech will directly affect the markets or mortgage rates, it does bring in the new administration, new policies and new theories. Those changes could come into play in the coming weeks and likely influence mortgage rates. Issues such economic stimulus and recovery along with tax and deficit news could create significant volatility in the markets and therefore mortgage pricing.

The week’s only relevant monthly economic data is December’s Housing Starts report early Thursday m orning, but I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond prices, bond trading, closing, economic stimulus, inauguration day, influence, lock, negative territory, President Obama, report, stock, stock losses, Tuesday, week

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 18th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 18th

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This will likely leave the stock markets to be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week. Whether this is good or bad news for bonds depends if stocks rally or fall. If stocks move higher, bonds will likely suffer, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, if stocks show weakness, funds may shift into bonds, driving mortgage rates lower.

The financial markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the Martin Luther King Holiday. They will reopen Tuesday morning for regular trading hours. I don’t believe many mortgage lenders will be open tomorrow, but any that are will likely use Friday’s rates or not allow a rate to be locked tomorrow.

Tuesday is Inauguration Day and while I don’t believe the ceremony or President Obama’s speech will directly affect the m arkets or mortgage rates, it does bring in the new administration, new policies and new theories. Those changes could come into play in the coming weeks and likely influence mortgage rates. Issues such economic stimulus and recovery along with tax and deficit news could create significant volatility in the markets and therefore mortgage pricing.

The week’s only relevant monthly economic data is December’s Housing Starts report early Thursday morning, but I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading.

Also Thursdays is the Labor Department’s weekly update on unemployment filings. They are expected to show that 548,000 new claims were filed last week. A smaller number is considered negative for bonds while a larger than expected rise is positive. But, this data is also not considered t o be of high importance. Since it is one of the only two reports released at all, it may influence trading some but not enough to greatly affect mortgage rates.

Overall, I am expecting a relatively quiet week in the mortgage market. As long as the stock markets remain fairly calm, mortgage rates will probably close the week close to Tuesday’s opening levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond trading, closing, economic report, economic stimulus, inauguration day, influence, lock, mortgage credit, mortgage lenders, open tomorrow, President Obama, report, tomorrow, trading, Tuesday, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 16th

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 16th

Friday’s bond market has opened down sharply following the release of mixed economic news and concerns about future sales of related securities. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 13 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently down 45/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

There were three economic reports released this morning with the most important coming first. The Labor Department said that the overall reading in December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.7% when it was expected to fall 0.9%. However, the more important core data reading was unchanged from November’s level when it was forecasted to rise 0.1%. This means that food and energy costs did not fall as much at the consumer level of the economy as was expected. The good news is that other prices did not rise.

December’s Industrial Production report was next with a surprising drop in output of 2.0%. This was more than twice the decline that analysts were expecting. This, and a large downward revision to November’s output, indicates that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities are spiraling lower. This is not good news for the economy, but is generally taken as favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

The final report of the week was January’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment that showed a higher level of sentiment than was expected. The reading of 61.9 was an increase from December’s final reading and stronger than the decline to 59.8 that was expected. This indicates that consumer willingness to spend may be rising, which is not considered to be good news for bonds.

Today’s data has not seemed to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates this morning. What seems to be driving bonds lower this morning is concern that more economic stimulus and government bailout f unds are going to require a significant increase in the amount of debt the government will need to sell in the near future. That additional supply weakens demand for current securities in the market. Unfortunately, this issue may come to light more often in the coming weeks. Hopefully the concern over corporate earnings and economic weakness will help fuel investor appetite for mortgage related bonds. If not, we may see mortgage rates begin an upward trend.

Next week brings us very little economic data for the markets to digest. There is nothing of interest or relevance Monday that needs to be noted today. It will be a very quite week in terms of economic releases, but as we have seen many times in the past this is not a guarantee that we will have a calm week in mortgage rates. Look for a summary of next week’s events and expectations in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond trading, closing, consumer price index, core data, downward revision, economic reports, economic stimulus, index cpi, index of consumer sentiment, lock, U.S., unds, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 13th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 13th

Tuesday’s bond market opened in negative territory as traders prepare for the next three day’s economic releases. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 6 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s only economic data wasn’t considered to be relevant but its surprise reading is worth noting. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. Trade Deficit stood at $40.4 billion in November, down sharply from the $56.7 billion in October. This data usually is not of much importance to the markets or mortgage rates, but it did catch the attention of traders since it was its lowest reading in 5 years. The data has not had much of an influence on this morning’s mortgage rates since the large decline is being attributed to the huge drop in oil prices. However, more eyes will be watching next month’s relea se, which may allow it to impact bond trading and possibly mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow kicks off the week’s important releases with December’s Retail Sales data being posted during early morning trading. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of approximately 1.2%. A larger drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Thursday and Friday will also be important days due to the PPI being posted Thursday and the very important CPI on Friday. There is also other data scheduled for release Friday, so I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates over the next three days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond trading, closing, commerce department report, Float, important days, mortgage rates, negative territory, refinancing a home, report measures, retail establishments, retail sales data, Tuesday, U.S., U.S. Since, U.S. Trade

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 12th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 12th

Monday’s bond market opened in negative territory but has since rebounded into positive ground. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 85 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, but we will likely still see a small increase in this morning’s mortgage pricing due to weakness in mortgage bonds late Friday and early this morning.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today or tomorrow. Look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and therefore mortgage rates until we get to the relevant data later in the week. If we continue to see stock weakness, bonds may thrive, pushing mortgage rates slightly lower.

The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data to digest. The first is December’s Retail Sales data early Wednesday morning. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of approximately 1.1%. A larger drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday may end up being the most important day of the week. The single most important report is the CPI, but the Retail Sales and PPI reports on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, are also considered to be of high importance and can heavily influence the markets. Therefore, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional, especially the latter part of the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… Th is is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond trading, closing, commerce department report, five pieces, lock, mortgage bonds, negative territory, refinancing a home, report measures, retail establishments, retail sales data, stock, stock markets, U.S., U.S. Since, Wednesday, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 6th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 6th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as long-term securities are falling out of favor with investors. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 46 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by another .375 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department posted November’s Factory Orders data this morning, reporting a drop of 4.6% in new orders. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength and was expected to show a decline in orders of 2.6%. This means that the manufacturing sector was weaker than expected. However, even though this is good news for bonds, other pressures are making the results a non-factor in today’s trading.

The 10-year TIPS Notes (inflation-indexed securities) will be auctioned today with its results being posted at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was strong, we sh ould see bonds strengthen during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest in the sale could cause bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to move higher following the announcement of the sale results.

Later this afternoon we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed’s future moves toward interest rates, even though the Fed appears to be running out of options. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates. I am expecting to see more pressure in bonds, until at least Friday when we will get December’s Employment report.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: afternoon hours, bond, bond prices, bond trading, closing, Fed, fomc meeting, investor demand, lackluster interest, lock, market participants, mortgage rates, negative territory, trading

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 5th

Monday’s bond market has opened well into negative territory despite early stock losses. The stock markets are giving back some of Friday’s new year gains with the Dow down 68 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently down 28/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. This morning’s bond weakness can be attributed to economic stimulus news that has traders concerned. The concern comes from two angles with the first being that an economic recovery will likely be bad news for bonds as stocks will likely become the investment of choice. This could lead to significant selling that would push yields and mortgage rates higher.

The second concern is that any stimulus package will require a large amount of new debt to be issued by the government. The additional supply weakens demand for existing debt, which in turns drives bond prices lower and their yields higher. Even though hard figures or estimates have not been released, traders are assuming that it will create an unfavorable situation for current bonds and Treasury notes.

The rest of the week brings us the release of only two monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. However, in addition to those two reports, we also will see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and a couple of Treasury auctions that may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates.

The first of the two reports will be posted late tomorrow morning when the Commerce Department releases November’s Factory Orders data. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last month, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 2.6% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates.

Also tomorrow will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed’s future moves toward interest rates, even though the Fed appears to be running out of options. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

There are two Treasury auctions that are worth watching also. The 10-year TIPS Notes (inflation-indexed securities) will be auctioned tomorrow while the traditional 10-year Treasury Note will be sold Thursday. If investor demand for these sales is strong, we should see bonds strengthen during afternoon trading those days and possibly improve mortgage rates slightly. However, a lackluster interest in the sales could cause bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to move higher following the announcement of the sale results.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for tomorrow to also be important with the economic data, FOMC minutes and one of the two more important Treasury auctions. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we will probably see mortgage rates move higher again.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I wo uld…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond prices, bond trading, closing, durable goods orders, economic stimulus, fomc meeting, lock, negative territory, stimulus package, stock losses, tomorrow, Treasury, treasury auctions, year

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 4th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 4th

This week bring us the release of only two monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. However, in addition to those two reports, we also will see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and a couple of Treasury auctions that may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates.

The first of the two reports will be posted late Tuesday morning when the Commerce Department releases November’s Factory Orders data. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last month, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 2.6% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates.

Also Tuesday will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed’s future moves toward interest rates, even though the Fed appears to be running out of options. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

There are two Treasury auctions that are worth watching also. The 10-year TIPS Notes (inflation-indexed securities) will be auctioned Tuesday while the traditional 10-year Treasury Note will be sold Thursday. If investor demand for these sales is strong, we should se e bonds strengthen during afternoon trading those days and possibly improve mortgage rates slightly. However, a lackluster interest in the sales could cause bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to move higher following the announcement of the sale results.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is considered to be one of the most important monthly releases we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a larger than expected drop in new payrolls and a small increase or even a decline in earnings would be good news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 7.0%. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in payrolls in the neighborhoo d of 475,000 with earnings rising 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for Tuesday to be important with the economic data, FOMC minutes and one of the two more important Treasury auctions. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we will probably see mortgage rates move higher again.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guarante ed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: afternoon hours, bond, bond market, bond trading, closing, durable goods orders, fomc meeting, investor demand, lock, market participants, mortgage rates, report, Treasury, treasury auctions, Tuesday, week, year treasury note

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 18th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 18th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite slightly stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets have fluctuated between positive and negative ground during early trading, but are fairly flat at this point with the Dow down 28 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently up 20/32, however, we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates as a result of weakness late yesterday. After peaking during afternoon trading, bonds closed well off their earlier highs. This led some lenders to revise rates higher yesterday, but many waited to reflect those changes in this morning’s pricing.

The Labor Department reported that 554,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week’s 575,000 initial claims, but was pretty close to forecasts. Therefore, the news has had a minimal impact on bond trading and mortgage rates.

The Conference Board gave us their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the month of November late this morning. They reported a decline of 0.4% that was slightly stronger than the 0.5% drop that was expected. This means that economic activity may slow over the next three to six months, but at a slightly slower pace than many had thought.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates. I am still concerned about further increases in mortgage rates from their recent lows, so please proceed cautiously if still floating a rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a h ome. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond trading, closing, initial claims, labor department, leading economic indicators, LEI, lock, minimal impact, mortgage rates, rate, refinancing a home, stock markets, Thursday, trading

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 3rd

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 3rd

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of favorable economic news. The stock markets are in positive ground with the Dow up 87 points and the Nasdaq up 25 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage pricing higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The revised reading to the 3rd Quarter Productivity report was posted this morning, showing an upward revision in productivity. What was previously estimated as a 1.1% rate was expected to be lowered to 0.9%. However, today’s release revealed a 1.3% annual rate, which means that workers were more productive than previously thought. That is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Fed Beige Book will be released at 2:00 PM ET this afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises. I am expecting it to show significant signs of economic weakness and easing inflationary pressures. But, I believe the market has this news already built into it so the news may not lead to improvements in rates this afternoon.

Tomorrow’s only monthly report is October’s Factory Orders. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except that this one includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but we may see it cause some movement in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in orders of approximately 4.5%.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond trading, closing, durable goods orders, economic weakness, fed beige book, fomc meetings, inflationary pressures, lock, negative territory, productivity report, quarter productivity, rate, report, upward revision, Wednesday