Chairman Bernanke
Tarullo, Regulatory restructuring
Testimony before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.. Chairman Bernanke presented identical remarks before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, on July 24, 2009
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Mar. 20th
Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Mar. 20th
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Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory this morning with no relevant economic news to drive the markets. The stock markets are relatively flat with the Dow up a few points and the Nasdaq down the same. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
As expected, we saw some pressure in bonds late yesterday and this morning. This by no means is a point of concern for me. The selling or balancing of portfolios is common after such a drastic move in such a short period of time. I am still quite optimistic that mortgage rates still have more room to improve in the near future.
There are no relevant economic reports being released today. Fed Chairman Bernanke is giving a speech at noon today to a bankers’ conference in Phoenix, Arizona. It is not considered to be an important speech that will likely affect the markets or mortgage rates. Whenever he speaks publicly there is always a possibility of the markets reacting, but the likelihood of seeing any reaction that will change mortgage rates is minimal in my opinion.
Next week is fairly busy with economic releases, but none are considered to be of extreme importance. There are reports scheduled for several days of the week, including Monday’s posting of February’s Existing Home Sales data. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the b est interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Mar. 3rd
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Mar. 3rd
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Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly following early stock gains. However, the major indexes have given back those gains to currently stand in negative territory. The Dow was up as much as 85 points during earlier trading while the Nasdaq had gained 21 points. But the Dow is currently down 24 points while the Nasdaq has now lost 2 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but I am expecting to see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to strength yesterday.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Fed Chairman Bernanke is speaking to the Senate Budget Committee about the Federal budget and current economic conditions. His words seemed to have fizzled the early stock rally and have pushed traders back into selling mode. If stocks continue to fall further, we may see bonds rally this afternoon and possibly lead to a downward revision in mortgage rates.
Tomorrow’s only relevant data is the Fed Beige Book during afternoon trading. This report details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading tomorrow. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.
Thursday and Friday brings us the release of a couple of important economic results, including Friday’s Employment Report. Those reports could drive stock prices lower if they show weaker than expected results, and possibly create a bond rally that will improve mortgage rates even more. But, with the recent volatility in the markets, it is a good idea to remain in contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.
If I were consi dering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Feb. 24th
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Feb. 24th
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Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following news of a plummet in consumer confidence last month and word that the Fed expects it to take a couple of years for the economy to fully recover from the recession. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow currently up 48 points while the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Conference Board gave us February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late this morning, showing a reading of 25.0. This was an all-time low and indicates that consumers are still concerned about their jobs and own financial situations. That is expected to mean that they are less likely to make large purchases in the near future, which will limit economic growth. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Also this morning was Mr. Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy to the Senate Banking Committee. During his testimony he stated that he was optimistic that the recession would end later this year, but that it would take two to three years for the economy to fully recover from it. He also said that restoring financial stability is needed for the economy to recover. None of this is a major surprise but making it official word from Chairman Bernanke gives the markets benchmarks to follow.
January’s Existing Home Sales report will be posted late tomorrow morning. This is one of the least important reports of the week, along with Thursday’s New Home Sales report. They measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually do not have a significant impact on bond trading or mortgage rates. The Existing Home Sales report is expected to show an increase in sales but new home sales are expected to fall slightly.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my clo sing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 23rd
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 23rd
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Monday’s bond market is currently down slightly despite stock losses. The Dow is currently down 53 points while the Nasdaq has lost 20 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The bond market and stock indexes are well off earlier levels. The stock markets opened in positive territory with the Dow up nearly 75 points earlier and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market was down 12/32 during early trading, but as the stock markets have given back early gains and slid into negative ground, bonds are rising. This is likely as a result of investors shifting funds into bonds to escape the expected volatility in stocks. Some analysts are predicting stocks to fall further in the near future and bonds are benefiting.
This week brings us the release of six pieces of economic data for the bond market to digest along with some very important tes timony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Two of the reports are considered to be of low importance, but a couple of them are considered to be of fairly high importance. None of this week’s relevant data is being released today.
Tomorrow morning brings us the first of this week’s data with the release of February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) during late morning trading. This Conference Board index measures consumer confidence in their personal financial situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy, related data is considered important in terms of gauging economic activity. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from 37.7 in January to 36.0 this month. A lower reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Mr. Bernanke will deliver the Fed’s semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy late tomorrow morning. He will be speaking to the Se nate Banking Committee and market participants will watch his words very closely. The Fed Chairman is required to deliver this testimony twice a year, which is considered to be of extreme importance to the financial markets. We almost always see the markets move as a result of what he says during this testimony. Look for him to address the banking and housing crises specifically and their impact on the overall economy. His testimony begins at 10:00 AM ET with a prepared statement then is followed by Q & A with committee members. I am expecting to see the markets fluctuate during this session, possibly affecting mortgage rates also.
Overall, look for plenty of movement in bond prices and mortgage rates this week. I think we will see the most movement either tomorrow or Thursday, but Friday may be fairly active also. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I wou ld…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Feb. 22nd
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Feb. 22nd
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This week brings us the release of six pieces of economic data for the bond market to digest along with some very important testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Two of the reports are considered to be of low importance, but since we have data being posted every day of the week except for tomorrow, it is likely that we will see plenty of movement in mortgage rates the next few days.
Tuesday morning brings us the first of this week’s data with the release of February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) during late morning trading. This Conference Board index measures consumer confidence in their personal financial situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy, related data is considered important in terms of gauging economic activity. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from 37.7 in January to 36.0 this month. A lower reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Mr. Bernanke will deliver the Fed’s semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy late Tuesday morning. He will be speaking to the Senate Banking Committee and market participants will watch his words very closely. The Fed Chairman is required to deliver this testimony twice a year, which is considered to be of extreme importance to the financial markets. We almost always see the markets move as a result of what he says during this testimony. Look for him to address the banking and housing crises specifically and their impact on the overall economy. His testimony begins at 10:00 AM ET with a prepared statement then is followed by Q & A with committee members. I am expecting to see the markets fluctuate during this session, possibly affecting mortgage rates also.
January’s Existing Home Sales report will be posted late Wednesday morning. This is one of the least important reports of the week, along with Thursday’s New Home Sales report. They measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually do not have a significant impact on bond trading or mortgage rates. The Existing Home Sales report is expected to show an increase in sales but new home sales are expected to fall slightly.
The only important data scheduled for release Thursday is January’s Durable Goods Orders data. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for items expected to last three or more years. A larger drop than the 2.3% that is expected would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. This data is quite volatile from month-to-month, so large swings are fairly normal.
The first of two revisions to the 4th Quarter GDP reading is scheduled for release Friday morning. Analysts’ forecasts currently call for a decline of 5.4%, indicating that the economy was weaker in the last quarter of the ye ar than initially thought. It will be interesting to see where this figure falls and what its impact on the markets will be. Generally speaking, higher levels of activity are bad news for the bond market.
The last piece of data scheduled for release this week is the University of Michigan’s revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February. Current forecasts show this index revising slightly higher than previously thought. The preliminary reading was 56.2 and is now expected to stand at 56.5, indicating that consumer sentiment was slightly stronger than previously thought. This index is important because it helps us measure consumer confidence that translates into consumer willingness to spend.
Overall, look for plenty of movement in bond prices and mortgage rates this week. I think we will see the most movement either Tuesday or Thursday, but Friday may be fairly active also. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Feb. 10th
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Feb. 10th
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Tuesday’s bond market has opened well into positive territory as last night’s speech by President Obama and his bank bailout plan are being received favorably. The stock markets are not reacting as well to the news with the Dow down 295 points and the Nasdaq down 49 points. The bond market is currently up 28/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.
Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee at 1:00 PM ET today. He is expected to testify and update the panel on the Fed’s liquidity injections and future plans. His words could create movement in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing during afternoon trading. After this morning’s warm reception to the President’s plan, I don’t think that it is likely that we will have a negative reaction to Chairman Bernanke’s testimony.
However, this week begins the quarterly refunding or sales of government debt that has had traders so concerned about recently. We will likely see more volatility as the week goes on, and as the sales take place. A total of $67 billion in new debt is being sold this week, which had raised concern about demand for current debt already in the market. That is what has pressured bonds recently and helped drive mortgage rates higher. If the market can get by that stigma or concern, we could see mortgage rates rally in the coming weeks.
There was no relevant data scheduled for release this morning. Tomorrow brings us the first of this week’s three releases when the least important of them, December’s Goods and Services Trade Balance, will be posted. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I w ould…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 9th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 9th
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Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for this week’s sales and speeches by President Obama and Fed Chairman Bernanke. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down approximately 15 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
There are only three pieces of economic data scheduled to be posted this week along with a couple of Treasury auctions and relevant speeches from highly important speakers. Only one of the three reports are considered to be of high importance while one is moderately important. The third is not considered to be of much importance unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
None of the economic reports were posted today. However, President Obama will address the nation on national television this evening. He will likely speak about his economic r ecovery plan amongst other important topics. What he says may heavily influence trading tomorrow morning. It is very difficult to predict whether the markets are likely to react favorably to his words or negatively. But I am expecting to see volatility tomorrow morning.
Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow at 1:00 PM ET. He is expected to testify and update the panel on the Fed’s liquidity injections and future plans. His words could create movement in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing during afternoon trading.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release until Wednesday morning. This is when the week’s least important data, December’s Goods and Services Trade Balance, will be posted. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates.
Overall, it is difficult to peg a particular day as the most important of the week. Tomorrow will be quite interesting with the reaction to President Obama’s words from tonight and Fed Bernanke’s testimony on the Fed’s attempts to stabilize the financial system. The single most important piece of economic news comes Thursday, so that day needs to be given much weight also. Throw in the fact that there is an early close Friday due to the President’s Day holiday next Monday, and we have the makings of an interesting week ahead of us.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to b e in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Oct. 19th
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Oct. 19th
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There are only two pieces of data scheduled for release this week that may affect mortgage rates along with testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Neither of the reports are considered to be of high importance to the markets, so I am expecting the stock markets to again play a significant role in bonds swings and changes to mortgage rates.
The first report is will be posted late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board posts September’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.3% from August?s reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to slow moderately. That would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
Chairman Bernanke will speak before the House Budget Committee late tomorrow morning regarding the status of the economic recovery plan. As usual, market participants will be watching his words carefully. We may see them cause fluctuations in the markets while he is speaking, however, I suspect he will not say anything drastically surprising to anyone.
The middle part of the week is very calm in terms of economic releases and related events. Accordingly, look for significant movement in the stock markets to lead to any sizable movements in bonds or mortgage pricing.
September’s Existing Home Sales that will be posted at 10:00 AM ET Friday. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight increase in sales from August to September.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates, assuming the stock markets are not wild agai n. The most important day will likely be tomorrow with the more important of the two releases scheduled and the testimony from Chairman Bernanke. However, just because it is a light week in terms of economic news, we should not let our guard down as the markets can implode or rally at anytime these days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 8th
Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 8th
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Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again, following the path of stocks and other markets despite the Fed rate cut news. The stock markets are showing another round of volatility this morning with the Dow down 60 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points but both well off earlier highs. The bond market is currently down 18/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.
In a surprise move, the Fed announced an emergency rate cut of a half point to the benchmark Fed Funds rate. This was coordinated with several other international central banks in an effort to spur global economic activity. The markets initially took this as very good news, hence the strong opening in stocks. However, it was short-lived as skepticism about it being enough to fix the crisis rose. The bond market is suffering today, but as previously mentioned, I believe there is still more room for stocks to fall befo re bottoming out. This could mean bonds become the preferred investment and lead to lower mortgage rates in the immediate future.
Yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes and words by Fed Chairman Bernanke actually helped fuel the theory that the Fed was getting ready to lower key rates again. But, not many people expected today’s move, particularly the involvement of other central banks. Still, it does signal that the Fed is in tune to the current crisis and ready to act at anytime to help slow or end the market meltdowns.
The only data scheduled for release tomorrow is weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to show that 475,000 new claims were filed last week, down by 24,000 from the previous week. Unless they vary greatly from forecasts, I don’t think this data will affect mortgage rates much.
The only factual economic data of the week will be posted Friday morning. August’s Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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