Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again after this morning’s economic data revealed stronger than expected readings. The stock markets seem to be having little reaction to the news with the Dow up 4 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently down 15/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

The big news this morning was June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Labor Department. They reported that the overall CPI reading rose 1.1% while the core data rose 0.3%. Both of these readings exceeded forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures were more of a threat at the consumer level of the economy than many had thought.

June’s Industrial Production data was also released this morning. It showed an increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities of 0.5%. This was much stronger than the 0.2% increase that was expecting, m eaning manufacturing activity was higher than thoughts. This is considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Part two of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony on the economy is being made to the House Financial Services Committee. I am not expecting his words to impact bonds or rates this morning unless something in the question and answer portion surprises us.

The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be posted later today. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members during discussion and voting at the last meeting. I am not expecting to see a change in rates as a result of them, but a possibility does exist.

Tomorrow’s only relevant data is June’s Housing Starts report. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but is not considered to be of high importance. Analysts are currently expecting to see a smal l decline in new starts of housing projects. However, I don’t see this data having a much of an impact on mortgage rates tomorrow unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again as the volatility in stocks continues. The stock markets are in negative territory with the Dow down 106 points and the Nasdaq down 28 points. The bond market is currently up 18/32, which likely improve this morning’s mortgage by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) this morning, saying that prices rose 1.8% last month. This exceeds the 1.3% increase that was forecasted. However, the core data reading of 0.2% that excludes more volatile food and energy prices fell short of forecasts. This means that food and energy prices spiked more than expected, but since core prices did not rise as much as thought that data is being considered favorable for bonds.

June’s Retail Sales report was also released today, showing a 0.1% increase in sales when analysts had predicted a 0.4% rise. This was lower than expected and indicates tha t consumers are being more frugal than thought. That is good news for bonds because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee this morning did not reveal any significant surprises. He indicated there was concern about the housing market along with energy costs and their impact on the economy, saying that they could drag on the economy the remainder of the year. He will likely repeat the same testimony tomorrow before the House Financial Services Committee. I am not expecting his words to impact bonds or rates tomorrow unless something in the question and answer portion surprises us.

Tomorrow brings us the release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is a mirror of today’s PPI with the exception that the CPI measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.7% increase in the overall index a nd a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core data is considered to be the key reading because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving us a more stable measure of inflation. Higher than expected readings could raise inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

June’s Industrial Production data will also be posted tomorrow morning. This data measures output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.2% rise in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector showed moderate growth during the month. A smaller than expected increase would be good news and could help push mortgage rates slightly lower tomorrow.

Also worth noting is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release tomorrow, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members durin g discussion and voting at the last meeting.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses. The stock markets are kicking the week off with the Dow down 72 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, but we will likely still see an increase in mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point as investors digest the news of the Fed supporting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

This week brings us the release of six important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Throw in a couple of days of Fed testimony and we have the makings for a very interesting week.

The first piece of data comes tomorrow mo rning with the release of June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 1.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the core data reading. The bond market should react quite favorably to weaker than expected readings, but a bigger than expected jump in the core reading could send mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted tomorrow. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.3% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow morning and the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday morning at 10:00am ET. His testimony will be broadcasted and will be watched very closely. Analysts and traders will be looking for the status of the economy and his expectations of future growth, particularly inflation concerns. This should create a great deal of volatility in the markets during the testimony and the question and answer session that follows. If he indicates that inflation is still a point of concern, we will likely see the bond market tank and mortgage rates rise.

Overall though, I think we will see the most movement in mortgage pricing this week tomorrow or Wednesday due to the release of the inflation related indexes and Mr. Bernanke’s testimony those days. It will likely be an active week for mortgage rates with a fair amount of volatility, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest ra te.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of six important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Throw in a couple of days of Fed testimony and we have the makings for a very interesting week.

The first piece of data comes Tuesday morning with the release of June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 1.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the core data reading. The bond market should react quite favorably to weaker than expected readings, but a bigger than expected jump in the core reading could send mor tgage rates higher Tuesday.

June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted Tuesday. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.3% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report.

Next on tap is Wednesday’s release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is a mirror of Tuesday’s PPI with the exception that the CPI measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.7% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core data is considered to be the key reading of both the PPI and CPI because they exclude more volatile food and en ergy prices, giving us a more stable measure of inflation. Higher than expected readings could raise inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher both days.

June’s Industrial Production data will also be posted Wednesday morning. This data measures output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.2% rise in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector showed moderate growth during the month. A smaller than expected increase would be good news and could help push mortgage rates slightly lower Wednesday.

Also worth noting about Wednesday is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members during discussion and voting at the last meeting.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak before th e Senate Banking Committee Tuesday morning and the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday morning at 10:00am ET. His testimony will be broadcasted and will be watched very closely. Analysts and traders will be looking for the status of the economy and his expectations of future growth, particularly inflation concerns. This should create a great deal of volatility in the markets during the testimony and the question and answer session that follows. If he indicates that inflation is still a point of concern, we will likely see the bond market tank and mortgage rates rise.

Thursday’s only relevant data is June’s Housing Starts report. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but is not considered to be of high importance. Analysts are currently expecting to see a small decline in new starts of housing projects. However, I don’t see this data having a much of an impact on mortgage rates Thursday unless it varies greatly f rom forecasts.

Overall though, I think we will see the most movement in mortgage pricing this week on Tuesday or Wednesday due to the release of the inflation related indexes and Mr. Bernanke’s testimony those days. This weekend’s news of Fed support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely help stocks, but I am not sure of how the bond and mortgage markets will react to that news. I suspect it will be taken as positive news, but it will be interesting to see if it has a significant influence on mortgage pricing. Regardless, even without that turn of events, it will likely be an active week for mortgage rates with a fair amount of volatility.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is o nly my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened relatively flat again as investors prepare for this week’s earnings releases. The stock markets are showing small gains with the Dow up 23 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday’s closing level, but we should see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. I am expecting the stock markets to continue to be the biggest influence on bond trading the rest of the day. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, mortgage rates will likely follow suit. However, if stocks continue to move higher, bonds may fall and we could see afternoon upward revisions to mortgage rates. But, if stocks move into negative territory, we may see mortgage rates improve later today.

I am remaining on the cautious side, particularly in the sh ort-term outlooks. I think there is more likelihood of seeing bonds fall and mortgage rates move higher in the immediate future than there is of them improving much. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for immediate and short-term closings.

This week brings us the release of only two economic reports for the bond market to digest. It also is the beginning of corporate earnings season. Those quarterly earnings reports can lead to significant volatility in the stock markets, which could influence bond trading and mortgage rates.

The first piece of economic news that may affect mortgage rates is Thursday’s weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. Analysts will be paying a little more attention to this week’s release than usual because last week’s report showed that claims had crossed above 400,000 the previous week. This is an important benchmark that will be watched closely. Last week’s numbers didn’t get much attention be cause they were posted at the same time as June’s monthly Employment report. But with little data scheduled for release this week, I believe more focus will be made on Thursday’s report.

Also worth mentioning are a couple of public speeches by Fed members including Fed Chairman Bernanke and a 10-year Treasury auction of inflation protected notes. The speeches will be watched closely for any possible hint of the Fed’s next move. The Treasury auction likely will not have an impact on rates, but could influence bond trading slightly if it is met with a strong or weak demand from investors. In a very light week of economic news such as this week is, events like these sometimes have a greater impact on the markets than if they took place during a busy week of news.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my cl osing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday’s bond market has opened relatively flat with no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are kicking the week off in positive territory with the Dow up 70 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from Thursday’s close, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness late Thursday.

This week brings us the release of only two economic reports for the bond market to digest. It also is the beginning of corporate earnings season. Those quarterly earnings reports can lead to significant volatility in the stock markets, which could influence bond trading and mortgage rates.

The first piece of economic news that may affect mortgage rates is Thursday’s weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. Analysts will be paying a little more attention to this week’s release than usual because last week’s report showed that claims had crossed above 400,000 the previous week. This is an important benchmark that will be watched closely. Last week’s numbers didn’t get much attention because they were posted at the same time as June’s monthly Employment report. But with little data scheduled for release this week, I believe more focus will be made on Thursday’s report.

Also worth mentioning are a couple of public speeches by Fed members including Fed Chairman Bernanke and a 10-year Treasury auction of inflation protected notes. The speeches will be watched closely for any possible hint of the Fed’s next move. The Treasury auction likely will not have an impact on rates, but could influence bond trading slightly if it is met with a strong or weak demand from investors. In a very light week of economic news such as this week is, events like these sometimes have a greater impact on the markets than if they took place during a busy week of news.

Overall, I am e xpecting to see a fairly calm week in mortgage rates. Friday will be the most important day with two economic reports scheduled for release. If the corporate earnings reports that are scheduled for this week are a disappointment, we could see stocks move lower and investors seek safe-haven in bonds. This would likely help push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower for the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of only two economic reports for the bond market to digest. It also is the beginning of corporate earnings season. Those quarterly earnings reports can lead to significant volatility in the stock markets, which could influence bond trading and mortgage rates.

The first piece of economic news that may affect mortgage rates is Thursday’s weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. Analysts will be paying a little more attention to this week’s release than usual because last week’s report showed that claims had crossed above 400,000 the previous week. This is an important benchmark that will be watched closely. Last week’s numbers didn’t get much attention because they were posted at the same time as June’s monthly Employment report. But with little data scheduled for release this week, I believe more focus will be made on Thursday’s report.

Both of the week’s monthly economic reports are scheduled to be p osted Friday morning. The first is May’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early Friday morning, which measures the size of the U.S. trade deficit. This data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market and will not likely have an impact on mortgage rates. However, if it does vary greatly from analysts’ forecasts of a $62.1 billion deficit, we may see some movement in bond prices and therefore possibly mortgage pricing.

The second is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment that is released in a preliminary form each month and then followed up two weeks later with a final reading. The preliminary reading for July will be posted late Friday morning and is expected to fall slightly from June’s final reading of 56.4. This would indicate that consumers were a little less comfortable with their own financial situations this month than last month. It is believed that if consumers are confident in their own finances, they are more a pt to make large purchases in the near future. And with consumer spending making up two-thirds of our economy, investors pay close attention to reports such as these.

Also worth mentioning are a couple of public speeches by Fed members including Fed Chairman Bernanke and a 10-year Treasury auction of inflation protected notes. The speeches will be watched closely for any possible hint of the Fed’s next move. The Treasury auction likely will not have an impact on rates, but could influence bond trading slightly if it is met with a strong or weak demand from investors. In a very light week of economic news such as this week is, events like these sometimes have a greater impact on the markets than if they took place during a busy week of news.

Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly calm week in mortgage rates. Friday will be the most important day with the two reports scheduled for release. If the corporate earnings reports that are scheduled for this week are a disappointment, we could see stocks move lower and investors seek safe-haven in bonds. This would likely help push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower for the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.