consumer price index
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 16th Afternoon Update
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 16th
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TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Today’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of a .750 cut to key short-term interest rates. This brings the benchmark Fed Funds rate to a record low of .250%. The post meeting statement also indicated that rates will likely remain that low for some time. They noted that the economy could get weaker and that the threat of inflation had eased “appreciably.”
The reaction in the markets was favorable for stocks and bonds. The Dow closed up 360 points while the Nasdaq closed up 81 points. Despite those gains, the bond market did well also, currently up 47/32, which will likely improve this afternoon’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.
The Labor Department gave us this week’s most important economic news with the release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). They reported that the overall index reading fell 1.7% last month. This was a larger drop than was expected and the lar gest monthly decline since February 1947, indicating that prices for energy are still falling rapidly. The core data reading, that excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged last month. Analysts were expecting to see a slight increase in the core reading. This means that prices at the consumer level of the economy were lower than expected, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because falling prices means inflation is not really a threat.
November’s Housing Starts was also posted this morning and also showed a record low. It revealed a decline in starts of new homes of nearly 19% and a drop of 15% in permits for new construction starts. This means that the housing sector is still weakening and appears to be well off a “bottom” that people are trying to predict.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for today’s events to carry into tomorrow’s trading. The next piece of relevant economic da ta will be November’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) late Thursday morning.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 16th
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 16th
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Tuesday’s bond market has opened relatively flat despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are showing sizable gains with the Dow up 115 points and the Nasdaq up 39 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage pricing of approximately .250 of a discount point.
The Labor Department gave us today’s big news with the release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). They reported that the overall index reading fell 1.7% last month. This was a larger drop than was expected and the largest monthly decline since February 1947, indicating that prices for energy are still falling rapidly. The core data reading, that excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged last month. Analysts were expecting to see a slight increase in the core reading. This means that prices at the consumer level of the economy were lower than expected, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rate s because falling prices means inflation is not really a threat.
November’s Housing Starts was also posted this morning and also showed a record low. It revealed a decline in starts of new homes of nearly 19% and a drop of 15% in permits for new construction starts. This means that the housing sector is still weakening and appears to be well off a “bottom” that people are trying to predict.
We also have today’s FOMC meeting to be concerned with. It will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET today and will likely affect afternoon trading and mortgage rates. The general consensus is that another rate cut is coming. Some think that the Fed will reduce key short-term interest rates by another .750 of a discount point, but most think the Fed will make a half-point move and wait until early next year before making another change. The post meeting statement also may a significant influence on the markets and mortgage rates as investors look for any indication of what and w hen the Fed may do next.
Look for an update to this report after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the meeting results.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 15th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 15th
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Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses and slightly weaker than expected economic data. The Dow and Nasdaq are kicking the week off in negative ground with losses of 70 points and 30 points respectively. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.
This week is moderately busy in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release with four on the agenda, but the biggest news will likely be the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year tomorrow. Only one of the four economic reports is considered to be of high importance, so the data may not be the biggest influence eon the markets and mortgage rates this week.
November’s Industrial Production data was posted mid-morning today, revealing a 0.6% decline in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was a slightly larger decline than the 0.5% that was expected, indicating that manufacturing activity was a little softer than thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is similar to last week’s Producer Price Index, except it tracks inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. It is also one of the most important monthly reports we see. Current forecasts call for a decline of 1.3% in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core data is watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving a more stabile reading for analysts to consider.
November’s Housing Starts report will also be released tomorrow morning, but I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report, which is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes, gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage cred it demand. But, it can be considered the least important of this week’s news.
The last FOMC meeting of the year is tomorrow and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET. There is much debate about what the Fed will do at this meeting, but the general consensus is that another rate cut is coming. Some think that the Fed will reduce key short-term interest rates by another .750 of a discount point, but most think the Fed will make a half-point move and wait until early next year before making another change. The post meeting statement also may a significant influence on the markets and mortgage rates as investors look for any indication of what and when the Fed may do next.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now. .. This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 14th
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 14th
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This week is moderately busy in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release with four on the agenda, but the biggest news will likely be the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year Tuesday. Only one of the four economic reports is considered to be of high importance, so the data may not be the biggest influence eon the markets and mortgage rates this week.
November’s Industrial Production data is scheduled to be posted mid-morning tomorrow. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Analysts are expecting this report to show a 0.5% decline in output. A larger than expected drop would be good news for bonds, while a stronger than expected reading may result in slightly higher mortgage pricing.
The week’s most important economic data comes Tuesday morning when November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is posted. It is similar to last week’ s Producer Price Index, except it tracks inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. Current forecasts call for an decline of 1.3% in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core data is watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving a more stabile reading for analysts to consider.
November’s Housing Starts report will also be released Tuesday morning, but I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report, which is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes, gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. But, it can be considered the least important of this week’s news.
The last FOMC meeting of the year is Tuesday and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET. There is much debate about what the Fed will do at this meeting, but the general consensus is that another rate cut is coming. Some think that the Fed will r educe key short-term interest rates by another .750 of a discount point, but most think the Fed will make a half-point move and wait until early next year before making another change. The post meeting statement also may a significant influence on the markets and mortgage rates as investors look for any indication of what and when the Fed may do next.
The last piece of economic news will be posted Thursday morning with the release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the month of November. This 10:00 AM release attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a sizable decline in activity, meaning that it predicts slower economic activity over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.5% decline from October’s reading. If it shows a larger decline, the bond market may move slightl y higher, improving mortgage rates slightly.
Overall, expect to see a pretty volatile week in the financial markets and mortgage pricing. The most important day of the week is certainly Tuesday with the CPI and the FOMC meeting both scheduled. However, we may see noticeable movement in rates more than one day this week, so, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 19th
Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 19th
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Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable results from today’s CPI release. The stock markets are showing another round of early losses with the Dow down 150 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.
The Labor Department gave us today’s big news with the release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). They reported that the overall reading fell 1.0% last month while the core data fell 0.1%. Both of these readings were below forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were not as bad as many had thought. This is very good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
October’s Housing Starts was also posted this morning, showing a stronger level of new starts than what forecasts were calling for. That could be considered bad news for the bond ma rket and mortgage pricing, but this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets therefore has had little impact on today’s pricing.
The minutes to the last FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 PM ET. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher tomorrow afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rate cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.
Tomorrow brings us the release of weekly unemployment figures and October’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Labor Department will post weekly unemployment claims but unless it varies greatly from the 503,000 that is expected, I don’t believe this data will affect tomorrow’s mortgage pricing.
The LEI will be posted by the Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET and is expected to show a decline of 0.6%. This means that the report is predicting economic activity to slow relatively quickly in the next three to six months. That would be good news for bonds because a slowing or weakening economy generally speaking makes bonds more attractive to investors and usually leads to lower mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 16th
Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 16th
Thursday’s bond market opened in negative territory but has since rebounded as the markets continue their see-saw activity. The stock markets are posting sizable losses after yesterday’s sell-off dropped the Dow 733 points. With the Dow down 190 points this morning, it has given back all of Monday’s record gain of 936 points. The Nasdaq is currently down 30 points and is also below its Friday closing level. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but due to a significant rally late yesterday, we should see mortgage rates improve this morning by approximately .500 of a discount point or .125 of a percent in rate. This morning’s economic data added more concern about the status of the economy and the likelihood of a quick recovery. The Labor Department said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September went unchanged from August’s level and that the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices rose only 0.1%. Both of those readings were below forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures are weaker than thought at the consumer level of the economy. That is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. The biggest surprise came from September’s Industrial Production data that showed a whopping 2.8% monthly drop in output. This was the biggest monthly decline in 34 years and points towards a quickly slowing manufacturing sector. That is also good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. The Labor Department said that 461,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a smaller number than was expected but since the data tracks only a week’s worth of claims, it had little impact on trading this morning. The remaining two reports are both scheduled for release tomorrow morning. September’s Housing Starts is the first, but is the week’s least important piece of monthly data. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually is not a mover of mortgage rates. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes last month. If it varies greatly from forecasts, we could see the bond market have some reaction to the news, but probably not enough to cause much movement in rates. The last report of the week is October’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows a sizable decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will probably rise. It is expected to show a reading of 65.0, down from September’s final of 70.3. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. |
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Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 15th
Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 15th
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Wednesday’s bond market opened well in positive territory but has since given back those gains. The stock markets are showing more losses with the Dow down 328 points and the Nasdaq down 55 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, but we will still see an increase of approximately .375 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates due to significant selling in bonds late yesterday.
September’s Retail Sales report was released early this morning. It showed a drop 1.2% drop in sales that was much weaker than expected. Analysts had called for a 0.7% decline, meaning that consumers were spending much less than many had thought. This is good news because consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy, which translates into weaker economic activity and lower inflationary pressures. Those two factors make long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds more attractive to investors.
Today’s second report was September’s Producer Price Index (PPI). It gave us mixed results with an over reading of down 0.4% that matched forecasts, but a higher than expected core data reading of 0.4%. This means that prices at the producer level of the economy rose more than was expected if food and energy prices are excluded from the equation. This is bad news for bonds because rising prices means inflation is still a threat to the economy.
Also scheduled for release today is the Fed Beige Book during afternoon trading. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it reveals stronger signs of inflation from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher shortly after its 2:00 PM ET release.
Tomorrow morning also brings us two economic releases. The first is September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.1% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow. However, a smaller than expected reading should ease inflation concerns and could lead to lower mortgage rates.
September’s Industrial Production data is the second release of the day and will be released mid-morning. It gives us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.8% drop in output from August’s level, meaning that manufacturing activity fell sharply. A smaller than expected decline or an increase in output would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates while a larger drop should help push mortgage rates lower, assuming that the CPI shows favorable results.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Sep. 16th -Update
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Sep. 16th
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TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Today’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates. The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed felt key rates were low enough to spur economic activity. The stock markets initially reacted negatively to the news since traders were expecting a rate cut, but then staged a rally that pushed the Dow up 141 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points.
The bond market did not fair so well. As expected, as soon as stocks started to rise, bonds suffered. The same funds that were moved into bonds and drove prices higher yesterday, now were hurting bonds as they were shifted back into stocks. The result was the bond market closing down 26/32 and a sizable increase to mortgage rates. I suspect that there is more room for bonds to fall if stocks continue to move higher. Therefore, holding the lock recommendations seem to be the prudent stance at this time.
Today’s on ly relevant economic data was August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It showed a decline in the overall reading of 0.1% and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. Both of these readings matched forecasts, therefore, they had little impact on the bond market or mortgage rates.
August’s Housing Starts report is the only relevant data being posted tomorrow morning. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Tomorrow’s report is expected to show a drop in new housing starts from July’s levels.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Sep. 16th
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Sep. 16th
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Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again as yesterday’s frantic buying has carried into this morning’s trading. The stock markets are showing modest gains compared to yesterday’s massive sell-off that had the Dow closing down over 500 points. The Dow is currently up 35 points while the Nasdaq has gained 6 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by another .250 of a discount point.
Today’s only relevant economic data was August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It showed a decline in the overall reading of 0.1% and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. Both of these readings matched forecasts, therefore, they have had little impact on the bond market or mortgage rates.
The biggest influence on this morning’s trading is still the financial sector woes and the stock markets. There is still talk of more bank and financial company collapses that could still create widespread panic in the markets. The spotlight is currently on insurance giant AIG and its ability to continue to remain solvent. Whether or not that will be accomplished remains to be seen. However, the markets often overreact to a crisis and then correct. The stock volatility that came as a result of news from the past few days has certainly benefited bonds as investors seek safe-haven. But, I suspect that this may end in the immediate future, hence the extended lock recommendation yesterday. I am going to hold the lock recommendations for the time being as any type of correction in stocks could drive bond prices sharply lower and create a significant spike in mortgage rates.
The FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM today. The recent financial and bank news has some analysts now thinking that the Fed may lower key short-term interest rates at this meeting. I don’t believe that to be the case and that the Fed will leave rates unchanged. However, I would no t be surprised to see the post-meeting statement address the recent events. Depending on what is said or addressed in the statement, we may see another round of volatility in stocks and bonds during afternoon trading today.
Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the FOMC meeting’s results.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Sep. 15th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Sep. 15th
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Monday’s bond market has opened up sharply following a steep sell-off in stocks during early trading. The stock markets are reacting to news that Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and other related financial sector news. This has pushed the Dow lower by 250 points and the Nasdaq down 33 points. The bond market is currently up 48/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .500 of a discount point.
The news the Lehman was unable to find buyers for its businesses and filed for bankruptcy protection has significantly raised concerns that the financial sector of the market is nowhere near stabilizing and has many fearing that more collapses may be coming in the near future. There are concerns about other banks and financial services companies on the verge of collapse that could create turmoil in international markets also. The benefactor to this news and concern is the bond market as investors seek safe-haven from the volatili ty. Whether this spike in bond prices will hold is unknown at this time, but what is a safe bet is that more news like this weekend’s reports could make mortgage-related bonds much more attractive to investors and may lead to a downward trend in mortgage rates.
Also contributing to this morning’s bond gains was a much larger decline in industrial production than analysts had expected. This morning’s release of August’s Industrial Production report revealed a 1.1% decline in factory output. This was much weaker than analysts’ forecasts of a 0.3% decline and indicates that the manufacturing sector was weaker than thought in August. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity eases inflation concerns.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important reports we see each and every month. It is considered to be a key indicator of inflation at the consumer le vel of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. Current forecasts are calling for 0.1% decline in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. A larger increase in the core data would likely lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow, while a smaller increase would be good news.
The FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM tomorrow. There is little debate about a possible change to key short-term interest rates at this meeting. The overwhelming consensus is that there will be no change to rates at this meeting. However, the post-meeting statement could very well lead to volatility during afternoon trading as investors dissect it in an effort to find the Fed’s expected next move. The wild card is how the markets react to the statement. If we see significant weakness in stocks, the bond market may benefit as a safe-haven from the volatility. This could lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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