downward revision
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 5th
Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 5th
 |
|||
 |
 |
 |
 |
Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite some surprising figures in today’s release of November’s Employment report. The stock markets are negatively to the news with the Dow down 200 points and the Nasdaq down 25 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we should still see and improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.
The Labor Department gave us today’s big news in November’s Employment report. They reported a drop in payrolls of 533,000 jobs, which was the largest monthly decline since December 1974. This brings the total number of jobs lost from the economy this year to 1.9 million jobs. Included in that figure was a downward revision of 80,000 jobs in November.
They also said the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, falling just short of forecasts of a 6.8% rate. It still was a 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate and further indicates that the labor market is not doing well at all. That can be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, it does not bode well for family income as workers are laid off, etc.
Next week brings us the release of a couple of important releases for the markets to digest. The most important data of the week comes during the latter part and can cause a great deal of movement in the markets and mortgage rates. We will get a first peek at November’s holiday sales to help gauge how holiday retail spending looked and a key consumer inflation reading. But look for more details in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 2nd
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 2nd
|
|||
|
|
|
 |
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following a rebound in stock prices. The stock markets are bouncing off yesterday’s beating with the Dow up 250 points and the Nasdaq up 47 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. It is the only day of the week that we will not get some type of relevant data. The next report that we need to be concerned with comes tomorrow morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the cond itions around economic growth, such as inflation that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%.
The Fed Beige Book will be posted tomorrow afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.
The recent bond rally has driven bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower, however, I am concerned that we may see an increase in rates before they fall much further. The rally creates a situation where bond traders may sell holdings to capture profits from it. If there is a concern in the market whether bonds can improve much more, that move may happen sooner than later and can lead to a spike in mortgage rates. Therefore, I strong ly recommend that you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate because rate usually move higher much quicker than they improve.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 1st
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 1st
|
|||
|
|
|
|
Monday’s bond market has opened strong following weaker then expected economic news and a major sell-off in stocks. The stock markets are kicking the month off in the tank with the Dow down almost 400 points and the Nasdaq down 81 points. The bond market is currently up 30/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .500 of a discount point.
The week’s first piece of economic news was November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) late this morning. It showed a reading of 36.2 that was below forecasts and is the lowest reading since May 1982. That indicates that manufacturer sentiment was weaker than many had thought last month. Since that hints at slower manufacturing activity it is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The recent rally in bonds has put us in uncharted waters in terms of their yields. The benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note is currently yielding 2.82%, which is it lo west on record. It broke below 3.00% last week for the first time since the Notes were issued in 1962. While mortgage rates have not recently plummeted as quickly as the yield has, they have fallen quite a ways and show signs of continuing to slide. The downside to that is the possibility of rates spiking higher at any moment. Bond yields and mortgage rates can worsen much quicker than they usually improve. Therefore, we need to remain extremely cautious during this rally as we could see an entire week’s worth of gains erased in a single morning if any of the major influences on bonds turns negative.
The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes Wednesday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around economic growth, such as inflation that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%.
The Fed Beige Book will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.
Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but today will also likely be one of the more important. Tomorrow will probably be the lightest day of the week, assuming we don’t see another major sell-off or rally in stocks.
If I were considering financing/ refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 30th
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 30th
|
|||
|
|
 |
|
There are five pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week. There are relevant reports scheduled for release every day except for Tuesday, meaning it likely will be a fairly active week for mortgage rates.
November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will kick off the week’s data at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 38.9. A weaker reading than the expected 38.0 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. That is a recessionary sign and could help keep mortgage rates low.
The next piece of data that we need to be conce rned with comes Wednesday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around economic growth, such as inflation that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%.
The Fed Beige Book will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.
Thursday’s only report of the day is October’s Factory Orders. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except that this one includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but we may see it cause some movement in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in orders of approximately 2.5%.
The Labor Department will post November’s Employment report early Friday morning. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for another upward change in the unemployment rate to 6.8%, payrolls down approximately 300,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage sho ppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 6.8%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings portion.
Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but we may also see movement in rates Monday and Wednesday. The remaining days could be fairly quiet, depending on stock market gains or losses. Friday’s data could cause a significant change in rates, but if it reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher Friday morning. Ahead of the report, we may see pressure in bonds as investors prepare for its release. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for short and intermediate-term periods.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking pla ce over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 24th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 24th
|
|||
|
 |
|
|
Monday’s bond market has opened well into negative territory as investor interest turns back towards stocks. The stock markets are posting strong gains during morning trading with the Dow up 289 points and the Nasdaq up 52 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates up slightly from Friday’s levels.
The National Association of Realtors reported this morning that home resales in the U.S. fell more than analysts had expected last month. This is fairly good news for bonds but since this data is not considered to be of high importance it has had little impact on today’s rates.
The first important data of the week comes early tomorrow morning when we will get the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of -0.3%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately -0.6 %, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
Late tomorrow morning, November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted. The Conference Board will release the CCI for the month of November at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a small increase from last month’s 38.0 reading to somewhere around 39.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.
Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market. Today or Friday will be the least i mportant day of the week and either tomorrow or Wednesday will be the most important. The bond market will close early Wednesday and remain closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. I still expect to see plenty of movement in rates the remaining days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 23th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 24th
|
|||
|
|
|
|
This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of an abundance of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are seven reports on the calendar with several being considered to be of high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates. With multiple moderately or highly important reports due out more than one day this week, we will likely see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates day to day.
October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted late this morning. This report, along with Wednesday’s New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results.
The first important data comes early tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary r eading of -0.3%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately -0.6%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
Late tomorrow morning, November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted. The Conference Board will release the CCI for the month of November at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a small increase from last month’s 38.0 reading to somewhere around 39.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.
There are four importan t reports scheduled to be posted Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items. It is expected to show a 2.5% drop in new orders. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show that income rose 0.1% and that spending fell 0.7%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.
The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late Wednesday morning. Analysts are expecting to see little change to the preliminary reading of 57.9. Unless we see a significant variance from the fore casted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.
Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market. Today or Friday will be the least important day of the week and either Tuesday or Wednesday will be the most important. The bond market will close early Wednesday and remain closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. I still expect to see plenty of movement in rates the remaining days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financi ng a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Oct. 27th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Oct. 27th
|
|||
|
|
|
|
Monday’s bond market has opened fairly flat with the stock markets mixed and despite stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are in another volatile session after the international markets that had another significant sell-off. The Dow is moving in a range of 250 points between its high and low of the morning, but currently stands up 30 points. The Nasdaq is also fluctuating between positive and negative ground and is currently down 6 points. The bond market is up 2/32, but we will likely see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to movements late Friday.
Today’s only economic data is the week’s least important. September’s New Home Sales report was posted late this morning, showing an increase in sales of 2.7% when it was expected to reveal another decline. However, offsetting that increase was a downward revision to August’s sales figures. Still, this data is not considered to be of high importance and has not influenced bond trading or mortgage rates today.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the month of October. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a sizable decline in confidence from last month’s 59.8 reading, indicating that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. As long as the reading doesn’t exceed the forecasted 52.0, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
The week’s FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins tomorrow and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. Assuming the Fed stands pat and leaves rates unchanged, traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed’s next move. Since there is a fair amount of uncertainty and a lack of a strong consensus of what the Fed will do here, the move itself, if it happens, will likely cause plenty of volatility in addition to the post-meeting statement. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM Wednesday, so look for quite a bit of volatility during afternoon hours.
Overall, it is difficult to peg a single day of the week as being the most important but I am expecting to see plenty of movement in rates this week. The data being posted tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday is all very important to the markets. The FOMC meeting is the single most important event of the week, but we may see noticeable movement in mortgage rates several days this week. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my clo sing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Oct. 20th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Oct. 20th
|
|||
 |
|
|
|
Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite early stock gains. The stock markets are mixed the Dow up 102 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today’s only economic data was September’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. It was expected to show a decline of 0.3% but revealed an increase of 0.3%. This means that the economy may strengthen during the next few months when it was expected to worsen. However, offsetting this news was a downward revision to August’s reading. What was previously announced as a 0.5% drop in August is now believed to be a 0.9% decline. That revision is helping to offset the surprise jump in this month’s reading.
The primary focus in this morning’s trading is Chairman Ber nanke’s testimony before the House Budget Committee. He updated the committee on the status of the economic recovery, which included a prediction that the economy would be weak for several quarters. He also encouraged another economic stimulus package that may benefit taxpayers. His words are being taken as favorable to bonds, so look for some improvement as the morning goes on.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for tomorrow or Wednesday. This will likely keep bonds fairly calm unless the stock markets are volatile again. As long as the major stock indexes remain calm, I am expecting the bond market and mortgage rates to follow suit for the most part.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates, assuming the stock markets are not wild again. The most important day will likely turn out to be today. However, just because it is a light week in terms of economic news, we should not let our guard down as the marke ts can implode or rally at anytime these days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Sep. 26th
Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Sep. 26th
|
|||
|
|
|
|
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a negative open in stocks and weaker than expected economic news. The markets are reacting more to news of the possible failure of the Fed bailout than today’s economic data. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 32 points and the Nasdaq down 16 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, but I don’t believe we will see much of a change in this morning’s mortgager rates.
Neither of today’s economic releases are considered to be of high importance, but both gave us results that were favorable to bonds. The first was the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that showed a revised rate of growth of 2.8%. This was a sizable downward revision to the previous estimate of a 3.3% annual rate and lower than analysts had expected for this revision. This means that the economy grew at a slower rate than many had thought during the 2nd quarter of the year.
The second report of the day and the final report of the week was the revised reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. The preliminary reading that was released earlier this month revealed a 73.1 reading, but today’s update showed a 70.3 reading. This was also lower than forecasts and hints that consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations than thought, which usually means they are less likely to make large purchases in the near future.
Next week is packed with economic news for the markets to digest. There is relevant data scheduled for release every day of the week, beginning with August’s Personal Income and Spending data Monday morning. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/27/2008 12:30:00 PM EST
Categories
Archive
- March 2012
- November 2011
- September 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- December 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- June 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
Links
- Application
- Build A Fortune With Real Estate Foreclosures And Short Sales.
- Build Massive Wealth With Foreclosures.
- Buy And Sell Real Estate From Home.
- Creative Real Estate System W Complete Tools For Todays Real Estate!
- Fast Fixer-Upper Profits.
- Federal Reserve Speeches and Testimony
- Foreclosure Profits Now.
- Learn To Find Commercial Real Estate Deals And We Will Fund Them.
- One Click Home Loans
- Own Real Estate With No Money Down.
- Pro-Investor Real Estate Contracts For Canada
- Rate Lock Advisory -Feed
- Real Estate Agents, List Bank Reo, Foreclosure, Short Sale, Bpo.
- Real Estate Developing Secrets!
- Real Estate Investing – Get Motivated Sellers Calling
- Tim Irishs Credit Repair Truth Blueprinting System!
- U.S. Census Bureau – Retail Sales
- US Senate Banking Committee