employment report
Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th
Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th
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Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite another round of stock losses and favorable economic news. The stock markets are continuing yesterday’s late selling that drove the Dow down 486 points and the Nasdaq down 98 points. The Dow has currently lost another 174 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 41 points. The bond market has fluctuated this morning between positive and negative ground, but currently stands down 11/32. This should mean that this morning’s mortgage rates will be approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s rates.
This morning’s release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading revealed a larger than expected increase of 1.1% in employee output. This was slightly higher than forecasts, but is still considered to be good news for bonds because high levels if productivity allows the economy to grow without inflationary pressures rising.
The second piece of data this morning was last we ek’s unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They reported that 481,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a drop from the previous week but higher than expected. This news isn’t the cause of this morning’s stock weakness, but today’s data was watched more closely due to the importance of tomorrow’s monthly report.
October’s Employment report will be released early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower.
I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the im mediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th
Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th
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Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are well into negative ground this morning with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but due significant strength in bonds late yesterday, we will likely see an improvement of approximately .500 – .625 in today’s mortgage rates.
There is no important data scheduled for release today. Tomorrow’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.
We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Lab or Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.
Friday’s Employment report is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower. However, stronger than forecasted readings could give back this morning’s improvements to rates since the markets are expecting weak numbers.
I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the immediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 07/09/2008 12:03:00 PM EST
Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 07/02/2008 12:03:00 PM EST
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Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again as investors continue to worry about the economy and what this month’s Employment report is going to show. The stock markets are showing losses this morning with the Dow down 36 points and the Nasdaq down 21 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.
The Commerce Department reported this morning that new orders at U.S. factories rose 0.6% in May. This was slightly higher than forecasts but not enough to influence bond trading or mortgage rates during morning trading. They also revised April’s sales higher by 0.2% but it also has not had an impact on mortgage pricing.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of June’s Employment report that will give us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added or lost and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets.
The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and no change in earnings. Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate to slip 0.1% to 5.4%, while 60,000 jobs were lost and a 0.3% rise in earnings.
The bond market will close early tomorrow ahead of Friday’s Independence Day holiday and will reopen Monday morning. This may add to the volatility following tomorrow’s release as investors move to protect themselves over the long weekend.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/30/2008 10:44:00 AM EST
Monday’s bond market has opened that week flat as have the stock markets. The Dow is currently up 3 points while the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged from Friday’s close. The bond market is also nearly unchanged, but due to strength in bonds late Friday we should see an improvement in today’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point. This week brings us the release of very few economic reports for the markets to digest. There are only three monthly reports scheduled for release that are likely to affect mortgage rates, but one of them is arguably the most influential single piece of data that we see each month. This is a shortened trading week with the markets closed Friday and an early bond market close Thursday in observance of the Independence Day holiday. The first of the week’s three reports is of fairly high importance to the bond market. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of approximately 48.6, meaning that sentiment fell from May’s level. That would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Overall, I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week. Tomorrow morning should bring some volatility with the ISM index, but Thursday’s Employment report is definitely the most important of the week and can single handily lead to an improvement or increase in mortgage rates for the week. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 6 0 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. |
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Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 05/30/2008 11:47:00 AM EST
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Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s economic news failed to bring any negative surprises. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 15 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.
There were two pieces of economic data released this morning. The first was April’s Personal Income and Outlays data that showed personal income and spending both rose 0.2% last month. Forecasts were calling for an increase of 0.2% in both readings, indicating that consumer spending and their ability to spend rose modestly.
The second report of the day came from the University of Michigan who updated their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. Today’s revision revealed a reading of 59.8 that was up slightly from the earlier estimate of 59.5. This means that consumer sentiment was slightly stronger this month than previously thought, but not enough to have much of an impact on bonds or mortgage pricing.
Even with this morning’s gains, I still believe they overall tone in the bond market is more negative than positive. This will likely lead to not only volatility in bonds but also possibly intra-day changes to mortgage rates. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.
Next week is busy with several important economic releases scheduled for the markets to digest. It begins with Monday’s release of May’s ISM manufacturing index and ends with Friday’s posting of May’s Employment report. It will likely be another active week in the mortgage market, but look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 05/02/2008 11:47:00 AM EST
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Friday’s bond market has opened down sharply following the release of stronger than expected employment figures. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 66 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 23/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.
The Labor Department brought us today’s big news with the release of April’s Employment report. They said that the unemployment rate fell to 5.0% when it was expected to rise to 5.2%. The payrolls number was also bad news for bonds with a 20,000 job decline compared to the forecasted 75,000 drop. Those readings indicate that the employment sector may not be as bad as many had thought. This has hurt bond prices and led to this morning’s increase in mortgage rates.
In a bit of good news though, the average hourly earnings portion of the report showed a 0.1% increase in earnings. This was well bel ow the 0.3% that was expected and should ease some concerns about wage inflation. Unfortunately, the other two headline numbers are influencing trading the most this morning.
March’s Factory Orders data was also released this morning. It showed a 1.4% increase in orders that greatly exceeded forecasts of a 0.2% rise. Also worth noting was a 0.4% upward revision to February’s orders. This means that combined orders for durable and non-durable goods exceeded what analysts had thought. While this is a negative for bonds, it has not had much of an influence on mortgage rates this morning as the employment figures are the driving force behind today’s losses.
Next week is fairly light in terms of economic releases. There is a moderately important piece of news scheduled for release Monday in the ISM Services Index. If it varies greatly from forecasts it could influence mortgage rates. However, it likely will have little impact on rates. Look for detai ls on the rest of next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 05/01/2008 12:39:00 PM EST
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Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite the release of stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are reacting positively with the Dow up 50 points and the Nasdaq up 40 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which with yesterday’s late gains should improve mortgage rates by approximately .375 – .500 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.
There were two pieces of monthly data posted this morning. The first was March’s Personal Income & Outlays report that showed personal income fell short of forecasts with a 0.3% rise but that spending rose 0.4% when it was expected to rise only 0.2%. That means that consumers spent more than expected and that is considered bad news for bonds.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their manufacturing index for April late this morning. It showed a reading of 48.6, meaning that manufacturer sentiment remained unchanged from March to April. Anal ysts were expecting to see a small decline, so this report could also be taken as a negative towards bonds. However, the market seems to not be too concerned with it. Trader are probably waiting for tomorrow’s data before making any moves.
The almighty Employment report will be released early tomorrow morning, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be an increase in the unemployment rate and fewer than expected new payrolls. Just how much of an improvement or worsening depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for a 5.2% unemployment rate and approximately 75,000 jobs lost during the month.
Tomorrow’s second report and the last of the week is March’s Factory Orders data at 10:00AM. This is a fairly important release because it measures manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, except this report includes non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Generally, the market is more concerned with the durable goods orders like refrigerators and electronics than items such as cigarettes and toothpaste. This is why the Durable Goods report usually has more of an impact on the financial markets than the Factory Orders report does. Still, a smaller increase than the 0.2% that is expected could push mortgage rates slightly lower, while a larger increase will likely lead to higher rates. But, the employment numbers are of much more importance to the markets than this data is.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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