Daily Rate Lock Advice for 12/30/2011

Thursday’s bond market has opened in depressing territory following the release of much stronger than expected trade and industry data. The stock markets have had little answer to the news with the Dow up 9 points and the NASDAQ down 2 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, but we will still see a noticeable step up in this morning’s mortgage interest rates due to strength late yesterday. If comparing to yesterday’s morning interest rates, we should see an increase of approximately .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department said early this morning that 388,000 new claims for joblessness reimbursement were filed last week. This was well below forecasts of 416,000 and the lowest total since July 2008. At first appearance, the headline number could be concerning for the bond market and good news for stocks. The size of the drop and the number of new claims hints at a strengthening employment sector. In fact, the number of weekly new claims has risen only once in the past 6 weeks.

That said the markets have not had a significant reaction to the data for a couple of reasons. First and primarily, the data covers only a single week’s worth of new claims. Another portion of the report showed that the number of continuing claims for reimbursement (claims that are not new) rose during the week when analysts were expecting them to remain flat. Also, the reason for the drop in new claims could be the Christmas Holiday last week where state offices were closed at least one of the five days. So, while the headline number of 388,000 does draw attention, it comes from a report that does not carry significant importance because of the short term it covers and were statistics from a holiday-shortened week.

We saw bonds rally late in the day yesterday, partly as a result of a 7-year Note auction that went surprisingly well. Several of the measurements we use to gauge the success of the auctions showed fairly strong investor demand, especially if comparing to Tuesday’s 5-year Note sale. After the results of yesterday’s sale were posted, bonds moved higher causing some lenders to revise mortgage interest rates lower.

There is no relevant monetary data scheduled for release tomorrow. It is the last trading day of the year, so we may see a little unpredictability as investors look to finalize their year-end holdings. We may actually see some of that take place this afternoon, so don’t be surprised to see movement in the markets this afternoon. But there is not much disquiet that we will see sizable changes to mortgage interest rates. Keep in mind that the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow and will reopen Monday for regular hours. The stock markets will not be recognizing the holiday with regular trading hours both tomorrow and Monday.

If you are considering financing/refinancing a home, you should…. Lock if your closing takes place within 7 days… Lock if your closing takes place between 8 and 20 days… Float if your closing takes place between 21 and 60 days… Float if your closing takes place over 60 days from now…

Friday’s bond market has opened down sharply following the release of stronger than expected employment numbers. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the data with the Dow up 136 points and the Nasdaq up 32 points. The bond market is currently down 28/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 – .500 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department reported this morning that only 247,000 jobs were lost last month and that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9.4%. Both of these readings were stronger than expected. Analysts had forecasted a job loss of 328,000 and an increase on the unemployment rate of 0.1% to bring it to 9.6%. In addition, average hourly earnings also exceeded forecasts with a 0.2% increase.

Today’s news was definitely negative for bonds and mortgage rates. It indicates that the employment sector is not as bad as many had thought. While it was still softening last month, it was at a much slower pace than expected. That helps support the theory that the recession may be nearing an end. In fact, some analysts are already stating they think it has ended. This is bad for bonds because economic growth often creates an environment with inflation concerns that make bonds less attractive to investors. The result usually ends up being higher mortgage rates as investors shift funds into a growing stock market.

Next week is another busy one for the markets and mortgage rates. There are several very important economic releases scheduled to be posted in addition to another FOMC meeting that can heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates. None of them is due out Monday, but there is relevant data or events scheduled for every other day of the week. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Feb. 6th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of a fairly concerning Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the news with the Dow up 180 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 7.6% last month. The 0.4% increase was more than expected and indicates that the employment sector is weakening at a faster pace than many had thought. While this is favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates, it gives little hope for the American worker.

The report also showed a larger than expected loss of jobs during the month. The 598,000 loss was the worst since December 1974 and brings the last three month total to 1.8 million. That’s the worst three month performance since the end of World War II and raises concerns about the rest of 2009. It is becoming more likely that we may set some new records this year that are not exactly worth bragging about.

The average earnings portion of the report didn’t reveal many surprises at an increase of 0.3%. However, despite this morning’s bond favorable data, stocks are reaping the benefits during morning trading. The weaker than expected results in the employment report did not surprise me, but the reaction in bonds was disappointing.

Next is pretty light in terms of economic releases, but it does bring us the release of one very important report. There are no relevant reports scheduled for release Monday. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 11th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected numbers in some minor economic reports and a fairly uneventful morning in stocks. The stock markets are flat with the Dow currently nearly unchanged and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

Neither of today’s reports are considered to be market movers, so their results have had little impact on this morning’s mortgage pricing. The first was October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report that showed a trade deficit of $57.2 billion. This was much larger than the $53.5 billion deficit that was expected. However, we have not seen this news affect trading or mortgage rates today.

The second was last week’s unemployment claims figures by the Labor Department. They reported that 573,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, grea tly exceeding forecasts. This is also a 26 year high for new claims, meaning that the employment sector may still be weakening. This is generally good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but since the data tracks only a week’s worth of claims it usually does not heavily influence the markets.

Also worth mentioning is the 10-year Treasury Note auction today that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand for the sale, we may see bonds move higher and mortgage rates revise lower during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release lf November’s Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts call for it to show a 2.0% decline in sales from October’s levels. If it reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates should fall as a result. A stronger than expected reading could fuel stock market gains and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning.

Also tomorrow and just as important as the sales data, the Labor Department will release November’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If tomorrow’s release reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker tha n expected numbers, the bond market should fair well and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are showing a 2.0% drop in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data.

The fourth and final report of the week is December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly. However, with the Retail Sales and PPI reports out before this data, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage rates much. It is expected to show a reading of 55.0, which would be a small decline from last month’s final reading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my c losing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 20th

Thursday’s bond market has opened up sharply as it continues yesterday’s late rally that came as a result of the Fed FOMC minutes that were released during afternoon trading. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 41 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 33/32, but since mortgage bonds have not rallied nearly as much as Treasury Bonds, the improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates is limited to approximately .250 of a discount point.

Yesterday’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting did bring us some surprises and led to the selling in stocks and shifting of funds into bonds. The minutes revealed that several Fed members are concerned about deflation (instead of inflation) where prices actually deflate rather than rise. That creates a very favorable environment for bonds and other long-term securities because their future fixed interest payments are worth more down the road. The minutes also showed the Fe d significantly lowered its outlook on economic growth and employment activity, raising more concern that the economy has more room to shrink before stabilizing. This also makes bonds more attractive to investors because slowing economic activity usually means weaker corporate profits that drive stock prices lower.

The Labor Department gave us last week’s unemployment figures this morning, saying that new claims for benefits rose from 515,000 to 542,000 when they were expected to drop to 503,000. While this is only a week’s worth of claims, it does however further support the theory that the employment sector is still weakening quickly. Another favorable note for bonds.

October’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was posted by the Conference Board late this morning, showing a decline of 0.8%.and lowering September’s reading by 0.2%. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.6% drop, meaning that they are expecting economic activity to slow over the next th ree to six months at a quicker pace than many had thought.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, but I would not be surprised to see more volatility in the markets. Mortgage rates have not improved nearly as much as Treasury bonds have, but I am expecting to see the improvements in rates slowly continue. Accordingly, I am holding the float recommendations for the time being.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Nov. 7th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of a much weaker than expected Employment report. The stock markets are showing gains after a couple of sizable down days this week. The Dow is currently up 84 points while the Nasdaq has gained 17 points. The bond market is currently down 19/32, but we should still see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount due to a strong rally in bonds late yesterday. This morning’s losses are taking back some of yesterday’s late gains, but mortgage rates are still lower than yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us some surprising readings this morning, saying that the U.S. unemployment rate jumped from 6.1% in September to 6.5% in October. They were expected to show a 6.3% unemployment rate. This was the highest rate of unemployment since March 1994.

The number of payrolls added or lost during the month also opened some eye s. The economy lost 240,000 jobs last month, which was worse than the 200,000 that was forecasted. But equally as bad was a large revision to September’s payrolls. What was previously announced as a loss of 159,000 jobs in September is now being estimated at 284,000. This was the 10th consecutive monthly drop in payrolls and brings the yearly total to 1.2 million jobs lost and the first time we have seen 1 million jobs lost since 2001.

Today’s report gives us little to be optimistic about in regards to the employment sector. It is becoming more and more clear to many analysts that the economy is actually in a recession despite the lack of an official announcement or other benchmark indicators. What is equally concerning is that many think the problems are going to get worse before better. This could be good news for bonds and mortgage shoppers, but the crazy volatility we have seen in the markets recently makes it very difficult to follow historical patter ns or make realistic predictions. There is little doubt that we will see more volatility in the coming weeks.

Next week is light in terms of the number of relevant economic reports scheduled for release. We will get some important data late next week, but the first part of the week there is nothing scheduled for release to be concerned with. This make sit very likely that the stock markets will be the biggest influence on bonds and mortgage rates the first couple of days of the week. But look for more details on next week’s event sin Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion an d cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 23rd

Thursday’s bond market opened flat but has since slipped into negative ground following early gains in stocks. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday’s afternoon sell off that pushed the Dow down over 500 points and the Nasdaq down 80 points. I suspect that this morning’s rally may be short-lived so we should be looking for afternoon volatility again.

The Dow is currently up 180 points while the Nasdaq has gain 13 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point. If the stock markets due give back their current gains, we may see improvements to mortgage rates later in the day.

The only economic news released this morning was last week’s initial unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They reported that new claims rose to 478,000 last week, which was an increase of approximately 15,000. Analysts were expecting to see lit tle change form the previous week, meaning that the employment sector is still showing signs of weakness. This is good news for bonds, but this particular report is not considered to be of high importance because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of September’s Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight increase in sales from August to September.

The recent rapid improvement in bonds has me concerned that we may see profit taking by traders that could push prices lower and mortgage rates higher. It appears that there is no consensus in the markets regarding whether or not th is is the bottom for the stock markets. It appears there is still room for the major indexes to fall further, but this may not necessarily mean that rates will improve as a result. That means that the risk versus reward factor of continuing to float an interest rate is leaning heavily to the risk side in my opinion. Accordingly, please maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 3rd

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite favorable results from the Employment report that was posted this morning. The stock markets are rallying as optimism about the House approving the bailout plan grows. The result is a 201 point gain in the Dow and the Nasdaq rising 57 points. The bond market is currently down 24/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. Unemployment Rate remained at 6.1% last month, as it was in August. The good news came in the form of the number of payrolls lost and the average earnings reading. Today’s report showed that 159,000 jobs were lost during the month, exceeding the 105,000 loss that was expected. It was also the ninth consecutive monthly loss and the biggest monthly decline since March 2003. The average hourly earnings was forecasted to rise 0.3%, but rose only 0.2%. Both of those readings are favorable to bonds and mortgage rates because they indicate that the employment sector is still weakening and that wages are not rising as quickly as thought.

I would not be surprised to see afternoon revisions to mortgage rates if stock prices continue to rise or give back their current gains. The bond market has been at the mercy of stocks the past two weeks and we may see more volatility this afternoon as the debate about the bailout measure continues. The House could bring the bill to a vote this afternoon, which may heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates. It the vote appears likely to pass, the stock markets will likely rise and bond prices will fall, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, if concern rises that the vote will fail, we could see stock prices fall and bond prices rise enough to improve mortgage pricing this afternoon.

Next week is very light in terms of economic releases scheduled. There is littl e relevant data on the calendar for next week, but we will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Look for more details on next week’s event s in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 2nd

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news and another round of stock losses. The stock markets seem to be worried about the potential approval of the Fed bailout program that the Senate approved last night. The result is the Dow down 220 points and the Nasdaq losing 53 points. The bond market is currently up 24/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by .125 – .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us August’s Factory Orders data late this morning, saying that new orders for durable and non-durable goods fell 4.0%. This was a much larger decline than was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector is still slowing. That is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also released this morning were last week’s unemployment claim figures. The Labor Department said that new claims rose to 497,000 last week, reaching a seven year high. Thi s is also good news because it raises concerns about what tomorrow’s monthly Employment report will show.

The Labor Department will post September’s Employment report early tomorrow morning. This report will reveal the U.S. Unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates tomorrow. However, stronger then forecasted readings would not be good news for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate 6.1%, a decline in new payrolls of approximately 105,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking pl ace within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.