Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Consumer Price Index (CPI):
unchanged in Jul 2009
News Release

Historical Data

Unemployment Rate:
9.4% in Jul 2009
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Historical Data

Payroll Employment:
-247,000(p) in Jul 2009
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Historical Data

Average Hourly Earnings:
+$0.03(p) in Jul 2009
News Release

Historical Data

Producer Price Index (PPI):
-0.9%(p) in Jul 2009
News Release

Historical Data

Employment Cost Index (ECI):
+0.4% in 2nd Qtr of 2009
News Release

Historical Data

Productivity:
+6.4% in 2nd Qtr of 2009
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Historical Data

U.S. Import Price Index:
-0.7% in Jul 2009
News Release

Historical Data

p- preliminary

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again after this morning’s economic data failed to give us any major surprises. Contributing to today’s early bond strength is a weak opening for stocks that has the Dow down 131 points and the Nasdaq down 32 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .500 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us today’s most important data with the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). They reported that the overall index was unchanged form June’s level and that the core data reading rose 0.1%. Both of these readings matched forecasts, indicating that consumer prices remain in-check last month. But the index has fallen 2.1% over the past 12 months, matching the largest year-over-year decline since 1950. That is good news for bonds because it means that inflation is not currently a threat to the economy. Inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, leading to higher mortgage rates. When inflation concerns are low, bonds are usually more appealing to investors. As bonds are bought, their prices rise, pushing their yields and mortgage rates lower.

The second report of the day was Industrial Production data for July. It showed a 0.5% increase in output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.4% rise, meaning manufacturing activity was slightly stronger than expected.
This can be considered negative for bonds, but the minimal size of the variance and the fact that this data is not extremely important to the markets has prevented it from affecting this morning’s mortgage pricing. The final report of the week was the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for August late this morning. It gave us a reading of 63.2 that was well below forecasts of a 69.0 that was expected. That indicates that consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is good news for bonds because falling confidence usually translates into weaker levels of consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely.

Yesterday’s 30-year Bond auction went fairly well, leading to higher bonds prices during afternoon trading Thursday. This caused some lenders to revise their rates slightly lower late yesterday, while others may have waited until this morning to reflect those changes.

Next week is relative light in terms of economic releases, at least if comparing to the last two weeks. There is no relevant data scheduled to be posted Monday, but we will get another important inflation reading later in the week. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Mar. 18th

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with some extremely favorable news regarding the Fed’s investment in Treasury securities and mortgage-related bonds. As expected, there was no change made to key short-term interest rates but the post-meeting statement did mention that economic conditions were worse now than at the time of their last meeting in January. They again mentioned concerns about deflation, meaning inflation is not a threat in their minds.

The big news was the size of the investment that the Fed is going to be making in mortgage-related bonds and securities. In a direct effort to push different interest rates lower, including corporate lending and residential mortgage rates, the central bank will be buying up to $300 billion in longer-term bonds over the next six months. They also said that they plan to purchase $750 billion in mortgage backed securities so free up more capital for mortgage lending. T his will likely give the housing and mortgage sectors a much needed boost.

The effect this news had on today’s trading was extremely positive for mortgage shoppers. The stock markets have rebounded with the Dow up approximately 50 points and the Nasdaq up 25 points. Both indexes were well in negative territory this morning. The bond market has had an even better reaction to the news. It is currently up a whopping 4 7/32 (135/32) to drive its yield lower by .47%. That is a huge swing and should equate to a very significant improvement to mortgage rates shortly.

Earlier today, the Labor Department gave us the week’s most important economic data with the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It showed a 0.4% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data reading. Both readings were slightly stronger than expected, indicating prices at the consumer level of the economy were higher than thought. While that is bad news fo r bonds and mortgage rates because inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, the market downplayed the data in this morning’s trading, looking forward to this afternoon’s FOMC results.

The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late tomorrow morning, but I suspect that today’s rally and news will carry into tomorrow’s morning trading and influence rates more than this report will. The LEI attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.6% decline, indicating that economic activity will likely slow in the coming weeks. That would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates generally speaking, but today’s news will probably dominate trading tomorrow regardless of the results of the LEI.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my clos ing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Mar. 18th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses and despite stronger than expected inflation news. The stock markets are posting sizable losses with the Dow down 128 points and the Nasdaq down 11 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates as the markets await the Fed’s words later this afternoon.

The Labor Department gave us today’s important data with the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It showed a 0.4% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data reading. Both readings were slightly stronger than expected, indicating prices at the consumer level of the economy were higher than thought. While that is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, the market seems to have downplayed the data in this morning’s trading.

This week’ s FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET today. There is not likely to be any change in short-term interest rates, but the markets will be looking for any indication if the Fed will be buying bonds as part of its effort to keep the markets liquid. If the Fed does start buying the debt, it should ease investor concerns about the amount of the debt that has been sold to fund the economic recovery and bailout programs. This would also likely prevent China, who made concerning comments last week, from selling some of their massive holdings in U.S. securities. The Fed move would also likely help keep mortgage rates low, possibly even driving them lower than current levels.

If the post-meeting statement indicates that the Fed is ready to start buying bonds, we could see an afternoon rally that may revise mortgage pricing lower this afternoon. However, any hint that the move may be delayed or is not going to happen would likely lead to selling in bonds and higher m ortgage rates later today.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Mar. 17th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets have fluctuated between positive and negative territory during early morning as they look for direction. They are currently showing small gains with the Dow up 20 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s big news came from the Labor Department who reported that February’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose only 0.1% compared to a forecast of 0.4%. That was the good news because it means that inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy were lower than thought. The bad news came from the core reading that excludes more volatile food and energy prices. It was expected to rise only 0.1% last month but actually rose 0.2%. This means that core prices were higher than analysts thought, but fortunately n ot enough to create a sell atmosphere in the bond market.

February’s Housing Starts were also released this morning, revealing an unexpected spike in construction starts of new homes. Today’s report showed a 22% jump in starts of new homes when analysts were expecting to see a decline for the ninth consecutive month. This surprise is good news for the housing market, which can be translated as bad news for bonds, but since it is considered one of the less important reports we see each month, its impact on today’s trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. Its results can definitely have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more impor tant core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall tomorrow.

The FOMC meeting that began today and will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. With key short-term interest rates practically at 0% already, there is not much the Fed can do with monetary policy at this meeting. They have previously stated that they expect rates to remain near zero for some time. Therefore, the anxiety of the post-meeting statement should be minimal and the likelihood of a major market reaction to the statement is reduced significantly. If the statement references a time frame of an economic recovery, we may see the markets react if it reveals any surprises. Other than that, I am not expecting too much movement in mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 2 0 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Mar. 15th

This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports along with an FOMC meeting for the markets to digest. The first piece of data will come mid-morning tomorrow when February’s Industrial Production report is posted. This report measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 1.2% drop in output. A larger decline would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Labor Department will post February’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Tuesday morning. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns may rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractiv e to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates Tuesday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.4% rise in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data.

Also Tuesday is February’s Housing Starts, but it will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. It is expected to show a decline in new starts from January to February.

February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Wednesday, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. Its results can definitely have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker t han expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall Wednesday.

The FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and will adjourn Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. With key short-term interest rates practically at 0% already, there is not much the Fed can do with monetary policy at this meeting. They have previously stated that they expect rates to remain near zero for some time. Therefore, the anxiety of the post-meeting statement should be minimal and the likelihood of a major market reaction to the statement is reduced significantly. If the statement references a time frame of an economic recovery, we may see the markets react if it reveals any surprises. Other than that, I am not expecting too much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late Thursday morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. Cur rent forecasts are calling for a 0.6% decline, indicating that economic activity will likely slow in the coming weeks. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Wednesday to be the most important day of the week due to the CPI release. Tuesday may also be an active day for rates with the PPI on tap. But the wildcard is whether stocks continue last week’s gains or if they move lower again. Stock strength would likely draw funds from bonds and lead to higher mortgage rates. However, if the major indexes fall again, funds may shift into bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Feb. 20th

Friday’s bond market has opened up sharply following early stock losses and renewed fears about the economy. The stock markets are showing early sizable losses after international markets posted large declines during overnight trading. The Dow is currently down 120 points while the Nasdaq has lost 13 points. The bond market is currently up 31/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) this morning, saying that the overall index rose 0.3% as expected. The core data rose 0.2%, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of a 0.1% increase. This means that consumer prices rose more than expected if excluding volatile food and energy prices. That is considered bad news for bonds, but the stock and economic concerns has prevented a negative reaction to this morning’s news.

The concerns, both here and overseas, about the global economy are contributing greatly to this morning’s bond gains. We are seeing a shift to safety as investors sell stocks and move funds into bonds. While this is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, this is sometimes only a temporary move and could lead to further volatility in trading in the coming days and weeks. If investors become more comfortable with stocks, we could see those same funds move from bonds back into stocks, driving bonds prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Still, no reason to panic. This just means we need to watch the markets closely.

Next week is fairly active in terms of economic releases and relevant events. There is no important news scheduled for release Monday, but we do get important data and the semi-annual monetary policy testimony from the Fed Chairman to Congress on Tuesday. The rest of the week is scattered with relevant data releases, so look to Sunday’s weekly preview for details.

If I were considering finan cing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Feb. 19th

Thursday’s bond market has opened well into negative territory following the release of much stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are relatively flat with the Dow and Nasdaq both down 2 points. The bond market is currently down 19/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

Both of today’s monthly reports gave us stronger than expected results. The first and more important of the two was January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Labor Department. They announced a 0.8% jump in the overall reading and a 0.4% rise in the core data when they were expected to show 0.3% and 0.1% increases respectively. This means that prices paid at the producer level of the economy rose much more than expected. That is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns that make bonds less appealing to investors.

The second piece of data p osted this morning was January’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months and showed an increase of 0.4% compared to the 0.1% increase that latest forecasts were calling for. This means that the data is predicting economic activity to increase over the next few months at a faster pace than analysts had thought. This is negative news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Labor Department also posted weekly unemployment figures, showing that 627,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This matched the previous week’s revised total but was higher than expected. The higher total of claims is good news for bonds, but since it tracks only a week’s worth of claims it is not considered to be of high importance to the markets, especially with the inflation related readings being posted this morning.

The Labor Department will also release January’s Consumer Pr ice Index (CPI) early tomorrow morning, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. With exception to maybe the Employment report, the CPI is the most important report that we see each month. Its results can have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and c annot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 16th

Friday’s bond market has opened down sharply following the release of mixed economic news and concerns about future sales of related securities. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 13 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently down 45/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

There were three economic reports released this morning with the most important coming first. The Labor Department said that the overall reading in December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.7% when it was expected to fall 0.9%. However, the more important core data reading was unchanged from November’s level when it was forecasted to rise 0.1%. This means that food and energy costs did not fall as much at the consumer level of the economy as was expected. The good news is that other prices did not rise.

December’s Industrial Production report was next with a surprising drop in output of 2.0%. This was more than twice the decline that analysts were expecting. This, and a large downward revision to November’s output, indicates that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities are spiraling lower. This is not good news for the economy, but is generally taken as favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

The final report of the week was January’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment that showed a higher level of sentiment than was expected. The reading of 61.9 was an increase from December’s final reading and stronger than the decline to 59.8 that was expected. This indicates that consumer willingness to spend may be rising, which is not considered to be good news for bonds.

Today’s data has not seemed to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates this morning. What seems to be driving bonds lower this morning is concern that more economic stimulus and government bailout f unds are going to require a significant increase in the amount of debt the government will need to sell in the near future. That additional supply weakens demand for current securities in the market. Unfortunately, this issue may come to light more often in the coming weeks. Hopefully the concern over corporate earnings and economic weakness will help fuel investor appetite for mortgage related bonds. If not, we may see mortgage rates begin an upward trend.

Next week brings us very little economic data for the markets to digest. There is nothing of interest or relevance Monday that needs to be noted today. It will be a very quite week in terms of economic releases, but as we have seen many times in the past this is not a guarantee that we will have a calm week in mortgage rates. Look for a summary of next week’s events and expectations in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Jan. 15th

Thursday’s bond market has opened fairly flat despite another round of sizable stock losses. The stock markets are continuing yesterday’s selling with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 25 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us two pieces of economic news this morning. The first was the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December that revealed a decline of 1.9% in the overall reading. This matched forecasts, but the more important core reading that excludes more volatile food and energy prices rose 0.2% when it was expected to rise 0.1%. This indicates that prices at the producer level of the economy that do not include food or energy rose more than expected. That basically is bad news for the bond market because rising prices raises inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-rela ted bonds less attractive to investors. However, tomorrow’s CPI reading that measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy is considered to be of more importance to the markets.

The second Labor Department release today was last week’s initial unemployment claims filings. They reported that 524,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, exceeding forecasts of 503,000. But since this data is a weekly reading, its results usually do not have much of an impact on the markets or mortgage pricing.

There are three relevant reports on the agenda for tomorrow. The first is December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is also one of the most important monthly reports that we see since it measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. The overall index is expected to fall 1.0% while the core data is expected to increase 0.1%. Weaker than expected readings should lead to bond improvements and lower mortgage rates tomorrow since this is the most important of the three.

December’s Industrial Production report is the second report to be posted tomorrow. It will be released at 9:15 AM ET and measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This gives us a good indication of manufacturing sector strength or weakness. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.8% from November’s production. A larger than expected drop would be good news and should lead to lower mortgage rates Friday as long as the CPI doesn’t reveal any surprises.

The final report of the week is January’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates. Good news would be if it shows a reading weaker than the 60.0 that is expected. However, it is the week’s least important of the five releases and probably will have little im pact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates due to the importance of the CPI and production reports.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.