Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 24th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 24th

Monday’s bond market has opened well into negative territory as investor interest turns back towards stocks. The stock markets are posting strong gains during morning trading with the Dow up 289 points and the Nasdaq up 52 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates up slightly from Friday’s levels.

The National Association of Realtors reported this morning that home resales in the U.S. fell more than analysts had expected last month. This is fairly good news for bonds but since this data is not considered to be of high importance it has had little impact on today’s rates.

The first important data of the week comes early tomorrow morning when we will get the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary reading of -0.3%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately -0.6 %, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Late tomorrow morning, November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted. The Conference Board will release the CCI for the month of November at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a small increase from last month’s 38.0 reading to somewhere around 39.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market. Today or Friday will be the least i mportant day of the week and either tomorrow or Wednesday will be the most important. The bond market will close early Wednesday and remain closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. I still expect to see plenty of movement in rates the remaining days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, bond, closing, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, downward revision, home resales, inflation concerns, investor interest, mortgage market, national association of realtors, negative territory, tomorrow, U.S.

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 23th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 24th

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of an abundance of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are seven reports on the calendar with several being considered to be of high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates. With multiple moderately or highly important reports due out more than one day this week, we will likely see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates day to day.

October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted late this morning. This report, along with Wednesday’s New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results.

The first important data comes early tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary r eading of -0.3%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately -0.6%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Late tomorrow morning, November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted. The Conference Board will release the CCI for the month of November at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a small increase from last month’s 38.0 reading to somewhere around 39.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

There are four importan t reports scheduled to be posted Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items. It is expected to show a 2.5% drop in new orders. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show that income rose 0.1% and that spending fell 0.7%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late Wednesday morning. Analysts are expecting to see little change to the preliminary reading of 57.9. Unless we see a significant variance from the fore casted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market. Today or Friday will be the least important day of the week and either Tuesday or Wednesday will be the most important. The bond market will close early Wednesday and remain closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. I still expect to see plenty of movement in rates the remaining days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financi ng a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, downward revision, economic reports, existing home sales, existing home sales data, inflation concerns, mortgage credit, mortgage rates, Wednesday, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 3rd

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 3rd

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are posting gains with the Dow up 42 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we may still see slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness late Friday.

The week’s first report came late this morning from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). They posted their Manufacturing Index for October, showing a reading of 38.9 that was well below forecasts and a 26-year low. The index measures manufacturer sentiment and this morning’s release indicated sentiment is softening. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing manufacturing activity usually means a weakening economy and eases inflation concerns.

Tomorrow’s only relevant news is September’s Factory Orders report. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes o rders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show 0.8% decline in orders from August’s level. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a smaller than expected drop is bad news.

There is no important data scheduled for release Wednesday. Thursday’s report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The last report of the week is the most important. Friday brings us the release of one of the most important monthly reports- the Employment report. The Labor Department will post October’s employment stats early Friday morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a 0.2% rise in unemployment to bring the national rate to 6.3%, a drop in payrolls of approximately 200,000 and a 0.2% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should rally bonds and lead to improvements in mortgage rates, especially if the stock markets react poorly to the news.

Overall, I am expecting to see a moderately active week in mortgage pricing. The key to the week will be Friday’s employment numbers, but any significant swings in the stock markets may also influence whether mortgage rates close the week higher or lower than this morning’s levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, durable goods orders, employment stats, index measures, inflation concerns, inflationary pressures, institute for supply management, Productivity, productivity index, quarter productivity, report, week, worker productivity

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 30th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 30th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of a stronger than expected GDP reading and early stock gains. The Dow has risen 132 points while the Nasdaq has gained 30 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

This morning’s big news was the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. It revealed a decline of 0.3%, its worst reading in seven years. It also was only the fifth time in 17 years that the quarterly GDP has fallen. However, analysts were expecting to see a 0.5% decline, therefore, the numbers weren’t as bad as expected. Also contributing to this morning’s losses was a key inflation reading in the data that showed a larger than expected inc rease. This raised some inflation concerns and contributed to the weak opening in bonds.

The Labor Department posted weekly unemployment figures this morning, saying that 479,000 new claims were filed last week. This was nearly unchanged from the previous week, but was slightly higher than forecasts. However, there is no comparison between the importance of this data and the GDP. With the GDP being considered a very highly important report, the markets ignored the weekly claims figures.

There are three reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.7%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

September’s Personal Income and Outlays report will also be posted early tomor row. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.1% in income and decline in outlays of 0.2%.

The week’s last report comes at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow when the University of Michigan updates their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. Current forecasts show this index remaining nearly unchanged from this month’s preliminary reading of 57.5. This index is important because it helps us measure consumer confidence, which is believed to indicate consumers’ willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be important.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, closing, employer costs, GDP, inflation concerns, negative territory, quarter employment, quarterly gdp, release tomorrow, stock gains, U.S., U.S. It, unemployment figures, wage inflation

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 17th

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 17th

Friday’s bond market opened relatively flat compared to recent trading sessions despite favorable economic news. The stock markets are up slightly with the Dow up 11 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates at yesterday’s levels.

There were two economic report posted this morning, with both of them giving us weaker than expected results. September’s Housing Starts came in at a 17-year low, further supporting the theory that the housing sector is far from a recovery. The 6.3% drop in new starts was a much larger decline than analysts had forecasted. This is good news for bonds, but since the data is not considered to be of high importance, it has had a minimal impact on mortgage rates.

The second report of the day and the last of the week was October’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. It showed a reading of 57.5, which was well off from forecasts of a 65.0 reading. This means that consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That is also good news for mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means consumers spend less, which in turn slows economic activity and eases inflation concerns.

Next week is very light in terms of economic releases scheduled to be posted. Monday does bring us one of the week’s few reports with the posting of September’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) that attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is a moderately important report and may cause a slight change in mortgage rates.

Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: closing, economic releases, economic report, financial situations, Float, housing starts, index of consumer sentiment, inflation concerns, leading economic indicators, LEI, lock, minimal impact, refinancing a home, report, trading sessions, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Oct. 12th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Oct. 12th

This week brings us the release of seven economic reports that are of interest to the mortgage market. The week also gets heavy in quarterly earnings releases for companies, which could cause significant movement in the stock markets again. The earnings results could affect bond trading as investors move funds into stocks if the reports are good. The other possibility is that the earnings reports would generally disappoint, meaning investors may move funds out of stocks and into bonds as a safe-haven. The latter would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The bond market is closed tomorrow in observance of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The first pieces of data come Wednesday morning, which are two of the week’s more important releases. The first is September’s Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the markets because it measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop. However, stronger than expected sales could fuel a stock rally and push mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.4% decline in sales.

September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is the second report of the day. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy and is also considered to be of high importance to the markets. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 0.3% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher. But, weaker than expected readings should lead to lower rates, especially if the sales report doesn’t give us stronger than expected results.

Also scheduled for release Wednesday is the Fed Beige Book during afternoon trading. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it reveals stronger signs of inflation from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher shortly after its 2:00 PM ET release.

Thursday morning also brings us two economic releases. The first is September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.1% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher Thursday. However, a smaller than expected reading should ease inflation concerns and lead to lower mortgage rates.

September’s Industrial Production data is the second release of the day and will be released mid-morning. It gives us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.8% drop in output from August’s level, meaning that manufacturing activity fell sharply. A smaller than expected decline or an increase in output would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates while a larger drop should help push mortgage rates lower, assuming that the CPI shows favorable results.

The remaining two reports are both scheduled for release Friday morning. September’s Housing Starts is the first, but is the week’s least important piece of data. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually is not a mover of mortgage rates. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes last month. If it varies greatly from forecasts, we could see the bond market have some reaction to the news, but probably not enough to cause much movement in rates.

The last report of the week is October’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows a sizable decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will probably rise. It is expected to show a reading of 69.0, down from September’s final of 70.3.

Overall, I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates this week, but mostly the latter part of the week. The key reports are Wednesday’s PPI and Retail Sales reports and Thursday’s CPI data. But as we saw last week, we certainly don’t need factual economic releases to see mortgage rates move. I am thinking we may still see plenty of volatility in the stock markets that may affect bond prices also. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if you have not locked an interest rates yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, earnings reports, earnings results, inflation concerns, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, quarterly earnings releases, Release, retail establishments, September, stock rally, U.S., U.S. Since, volatile food, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 1st

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 1st

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as investors show concern about today’s Senate vote on the Fed bailout plan. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 113 and the Nasdaq down 22 points following yesterday’s record gain in the Dow. The bond market is currently up 33/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point due to yesterday’s sell-off in bonds as stocks rallied.

Also helping boost bonds today was a large drop in the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for September. Today’s release revealed a reading of 43.5, which was its lowest reading since October 2001. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of 49.5, meaning manufacturer sentiment about business conditions was much lower than thought. This is good news for bonds because a weakening manufacturing sector indicates slowing economic activity and eases inflation concerns.

We need to again keep an eye on the stock markets and Fed bailout vote. The Senate is expected to vote on their plan this evening, after the markets close. Current polls are expecting the measure to pass the Senate vote, but the real question is what the House will do with it once they get it. Since current expectations are showing passage by the Senate, I don’t think we will see a massive sell off in stocks again today. It seems that the markets are more concerned about the House approving the bill if the Senate does approve it. As we get closer to the House vote, we will likely see the volatility in stocks rise.

The Commerce Department will post August’s Factory Orders data late tomorrow morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Cu rrent forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.9%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower tomorrow. However, look for the results form tonight’s Senate vote to heavily influence trading in the markets tomorrow morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bailout plan, closing, durable goods orders, fed bailout, inflation concerns, institute for supply management, ism manufacturing index, lock, record gain, sector report, Senate, senate vote, today, vote

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Sep. 28th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Sep. 28th

This week brings us the release of five monthly economic reports for the bond market to digest. August’s Personal Income and Outlays is the week’s first data and will be released tomorrow morning. It gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. This is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. It is expected to show a 0.2% rise in income and a 0.2% increase in spending.

The next is Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a decline from last month’s reading, indicating that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 55.0, down from August’s 56.9. If we see a larger than expected decline, we should see the bond market move higher and mortgage rates drop Tuesday.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for September late Wednesday morning. This index gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. Analysts are expecting little change from last month’s 49.9 reading. The 50.0 benchmark is extremely important because a reading below that level means more surveyed executives felt business worsened than those who said it had improved. This data is important not only because it measures manufacturer sentiment, but it is very recent data. Some economic releases track data that are 30-60 days old, but the ISM index is o nly a few weeks old. If we get a smaller than expected reading, I expect to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates fall Wednesday morning.

The next release is Thursday when the Commerce Department will post August’s Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 1.8%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.

The Labor Department will post September’s Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment se ctor and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate 6.1%, a decline in new payrolls of approximately 90,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

Overall, it is going to be a very active week in the markets and mortgage rates. The most important day will likely be Friday due to the employment report being scheduled, but Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s data can also fairly heavily influence mortgage rates. With important data being released each day of the week, I would recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Loc k if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, decline, economic releases, economic reports, inflation concerns, institute for supply management, market move, mortgage rates drop, report, U.S., week

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Sep. 25th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Sep. 25th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory after the stock markets have opened with strong gains. Stocks are rallying after some of the hurdles that may have prevented the bailout plan from being approved appear to have been tackled. The result is the Dow up 202 points and the Nasdaq gaining 35 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us August’s Durable Goods Orders results this morning, saying that new orders for big-ticket items fell 4.5% last month. This drop was over four times analysts’ forecasts, meaning that the manufacturing sector was much weaker than thought. This is considered to be good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity will likely ease inflation concerns and make long term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

Augus t’s New Home Sales were also posted this morning, showing that sale of newly constructed homes fell to their lowest level since October 1991. This strongly indicates that the housing sector is still weakening and not ready to bottom out yet. That is also good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don’t see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight increase from the previous estimate of a 3.3% annual rate.

The final report of the week is Friday’s release of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This is the revised reading for September. The preliminary reading that was released earlier this month revealed a 73 .1 reading. Analysts are expecting to see a downward revision to 70.9, meaning confidence was weaker than previously thought. A lower than expected reading should help improve mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bailout plan, big ticket items, bond, bond market, closing, durable goods orders, index of consumer sentiment, inflation concerns, lock, mortgage rates, negative territory, quarter gdp, release tomorrow

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Sep. 24th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Sep. 24th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory in what hopefully is a sign of stabilization. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 40 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely see this morning’s mortgage rates move higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

Today’s only economic news was the release of August’s Existing Home Sales report. The National Association of Realtors reported that home resales in the U.S. fell more than expected last month. This indicates that the housing sector has still not bottomed out. That is good news for bonds because a soft housing sector will likely slow economic activity and ease inflation concerns.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is speaking to a Joint Economic Committee of Congress today, where he has basically warned that the Fed bailout program needs to be enacted quickly to stabilize the financial system. His words have led to some fluctuation in the markets this morning, but don’t seem to be of significant surprise to traders. Accordingly, I don’t believe we will see any further changes to mortgage rates as a result.

August’s Durable Goods Orders will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a drop in orders in the neighborhood of 1.3%. A larger decline could help bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop tomorrow. However, a smaller than expected decrease would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector and would likely help push mortgage rates higher.

Also tomorrow morning will be the release of August’s New Home Sales. It is expected to show that sales of new homes rose slightly in August. As with today’s Existing Home Sales data, this report will likely not have a significant impact on m ortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, Chairman Bernanke, closing, congress today, durable goods orders, existing home sales, existing home sales data, fed bailout, fed chairman bernanke, inflation concerns, joint economic committee, lock, national association of realtors, today, U.S.