Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 17th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 17th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following another round of stock weakness that has bonds looking more attractive to investors. The stock markets are continuing Friday’s selling with the Dow currently down 162 points and the Nasdaq down 30 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

Today’s Industrial Production report revealed a much larger than expected increase in manufacturer output. The 1.3% increase greatly exceeded analysts’ forecasts of a 0.1% decline in output, meaning that U.S. factories, mines and utilities were busier than many had thought. This is considered to be negative news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The rest of the week brings us the release of four more monthly reports for the markets to digest along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The first of the week’s two key inflation readings will be posted early tomorrow morning when October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is released. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.

If the core data reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 1.8% in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core reading.

Overall, look for tomorrow or Wednesday to be the most important day of the week with the PPI and CPI reports scheduled for release those days. They are the two most important releases of the week and ca n individually lead to large swings in the markets and mortgage rates. The FOMC minutes may also heavily influence trading and deserve to be watched also. I think this will be a fairly active week for mortgage rates, so please maintain regular contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, closing, core data, FOMC, inflationary pressures, negative news, PPI, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, U.S., volatile food, week

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 16th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 16th

This week brings us the release of five monthly reports for the markets to digest along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The first report scheduled for release this week is October’s Industrial Production tomorrow morning. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to reveal a 0.1% decline in output. Stronger levels of production would be considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

We will get the first of this week’s two key inflation readings early Tuesday morning when October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is posted. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, in dicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 1.5% in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core reading.

Wednesday’s only data is October’s Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeably impact on mortgage rates. I don’t expect this month’s version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts forecast. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes.

Also Wednesday is the afternoon release of the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pr essures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Wednesday afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rate cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET Thursday morning. This index is similar to Tuesday’s PPI, except it measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. The overall portion is expected to show a drop of 0.8% while the core data is expected to rise 0.2%.

Overall, look for Tuesday or Thursday to be the most important day of the week with the PPI and CPI reports scheduled for release those days. They are the two most important releases of the week and can individually lead to large swings in the markets and mortgage rates. The FOMC minutes may also heavily influence trading and deserve to be watched also. I think this will be a fa irly active week for mortgage rates, so please maintain regular contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, core data, early tuesday, fomc meeting, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, PPI, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, Release, U.S., volatile food, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite another round of stock losses and favorable economic news. The stock markets are continuing yesterday’s late selling that drove the Dow down 486 points and the Nasdaq down 98 points. The Dow has currently lost another 174 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 41 points. The bond market has fluctuated this morning between positive and negative ground, but currently stands down 11/32. This should mean that this morning’s mortgage rates will be approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s rates.

This morning’s release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading revealed a larger than expected increase of 1.1% in employee output. This was slightly higher than forecasts, but is still considered to be good news for bonds because high levels if productivity allows the economy to grow without inflationary pressures rising.

The second piece of data this morning was last we ek’s unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They reported that 481,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a drop from the previous week but higher than expected. This news isn’t the cause of this morning’s stock weakness, but today’s data was watched more closely due to the importance of tomorrow’s monthly report.

October’s Employment report will be released early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the im mediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, closing, employment report, Float, importance of tomorrow, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, negative territory, quarter productivity, rate, stock, stock losses, Unemployment, unemployment figures, unemployment rate, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are well into negative ground this morning with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but due significant strength in bonds late yesterday, we will likely see an improvement of approximately .500 – .625 in today’s mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release today. Tomorrow’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Lab or Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

Friday’s Employment report is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower. However, stronger than forecasted readings could give back this morning’s improvements to rates since the markets are expecting weak numbers.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the immediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, bond, bond market, closing, employment report, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, Productivity, productivity index, quarter productivity, rate, report, unemployment figures, unemployment rate, week, worker productivity

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 4th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 4th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite sizable stock gains during early trading. The stock markets are strong this morning with the Dow up 262 points and the Nasdaq up 42 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s only relevant data came from the Commerce Department who posted September’s Factory Orders report. It showed a decline of 2.5% that was an improvement from August’s 4/3% drop, but was also much weaker than the 0.8% decline that was expected. This means that new orders at U.S. factories fell much more than thought and indicates a rapidly slowing manufacturing sector. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release tomorrow. Thursday’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivi ty during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

If I were considering financing/refinanci ng a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 3rd quarter, bond, bond market, closing, Float, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, productivity index, quarter productivity, Release, release tomorrow, report, stock gains, stock markets, tomorrow, U.S., unemployment figures

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 3rd

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 3rd

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are posting gains with the Dow up 42 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we may still see slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness late Friday.

The week’s first report came late this morning from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). They posted their Manufacturing Index for October, showing a reading of 38.9 that was well below forecasts and a 26-year low. The index measures manufacturer sentiment and this morning’s release indicated sentiment is softening. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing manufacturing activity usually means a weakening economy and eases inflation concerns.

Tomorrow’s only relevant news is September’s Factory Orders report. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes o rders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show 0.8% decline in orders from August’s level. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a smaller than expected drop is bad news.

There is no important data scheduled for release Wednesday. Thursday’s report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The last report of the week is the most important. Friday brings us the release of one of the most important monthly reports- the Employment report. The Labor Department will post October’s employment stats early Friday morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a 0.2% rise in unemployment to bring the national rate to 6.3%, a drop in payrolls of approximately 200,000 and a 0.2% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should rally bonds and lead to improvements in mortgage rates, especially if the stock markets react poorly to the news.

Overall, I am expecting to see a moderately active week in mortgage pricing. The key to the week will be Friday’s employment numbers, but any significant swings in the stock markets may also influence whether mortgage rates close the week higher or lower than this morning’s levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, durable goods orders, employment stats, index measures, inflation concerns, inflationary pressures, institute for supply management, Productivity, productivity index, quarter productivity, report, week, worker productivity

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 16th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 16th Thursday’s bond market opened in negative territory but has since rebounded as the markets continue their see-saw activity. The stock markets are posting sizable losses after yesterday’s sell-off dropped the Dow 733 points. With the Dow down 190 points this morning, it has given back all of Monday’s record gain of 936 points. The Nasdaq is currently down 30 points and is also below its Friday closing level. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but due to a significant rally late yesterday, we should see mortgage rates improve this morning by approximately .500 of a discount point or .125 of a percent in rate. This morning’s economic data added more concern about the status of the economy and the likelihood of a quick recovery. The Labor Department said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September went unchanged from August’s level and that the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices rose only 0.1%. Both of those readings were below forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures are weaker than thought at the consumer level of the economy. That is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. The biggest surprise came from September’s Industrial Production data that showed a whopping 2.8% monthly drop in output. This was the biggest monthly decline in 34 years and points towards a quickly slowing manufacturing sector. That is also good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. The Labor Department said that 461,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a smaller number than was expected but since the data tracks only a week’s worth of claims, it had little impact on trading this morning. The remaining two reports are both scheduled for release tomorrow morning. September’s Housing Starts is the first, but is the week’s least important piece of monthly data. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually is not a mover of mortgage rates. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes last month. If it varies greatly from forecasts, we could see the bond market have some reaction to the news, but probably not enough to cause much movement in rates. The last report of the week is October’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows a sizable decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will probably rise. It is expected to show a reading of 65.0, down from September’s final of 70.3. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, closing, consumer price index, core data, index cpi, inflationary pressures, mortgage credit, negative territory, record gain, release tomorrow, September, unemployment benefits, volatile food, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 15th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 15th

Wednesday’s bond market opened well in positive territory but has since given back those gains. The stock markets are showing more losses with the Dow down 328 points and the Nasdaq down 55 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, but we will still see an increase of approximately .375 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates due to significant selling in bonds late yesterday.

September’s Retail Sales report was released early this morning. It showed a drop 1.2% drop in sales that was much weaker than expected. Analysts had called for a 0.7% decline, meaning that consumers were spending much less than many had thought. This is good news because consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy, which translates into weaker economic activity and lower inflationary pressures. Those two factors make long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds more attractive to investors.

Today’s second report was September’s Producer Price Index (PPI). It gave us mixed results with an over reading of down 0.4% that matched forecasts, but a higher than expected core data reading of 0.4%. This means that prices at the producer level of the economy rose more than was expected if food and energy prices are excluded from the equation. This is bad news for bonds because rising prices means inflation is still a threat to the economy.

Also scheduled for release today is the Fed Beige Book during afternoon trading. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it reveals stronger signs of inflation from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher shortly after its 2:00 PM ET release.

Tomorrow morning also brings us two economic releases. The first is September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.1% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow. However, a smaller than expected reading should ease inflation concerns and could lead to lower mortgage rates.

September’s Industrial Production data is the second release of the day and will be released mid-morning. It gives us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.8% drop in output from August’s level, meaning that manufacturing activity fell sharply. A smaller than expected decline or an increase in output would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates while a larger drop should help push mortgage rates lower, assuming that the CPI shows favorable results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, consumer price index, core data, fed beige book, fomc meetings, index cpi, inflationary pressures, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, Release, release tomorrow, September, U.S.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Oct. 7th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Oct. 7th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as the volatility in the stock markets continue. After opening in positive territory, the Dow and Nasdaq have fallen into negative ground. The Dow is currently down 60 points while the Nasdaq has lost 20 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32, but I am not expecting to see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates.

If the major stock indexes continue to flip flop between positive and negative ground, we will likely see bonds and mortgage rates fluctuate also. Until the markets stabilize, it will be difficult to predict movement in mortgage pricing. However, I still believe that there is more room for stocks to fall, which would likely improve bonds and lower mortgage rates. In fact, I would not be surprised to see the 10,000 Dow benchmark be a ceiling for the immediate future. Accordingly, I am cautiously holding the float recommendations for the time being.

The first news of the week comes this afternoon when the Fed will release the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher tomorrow afternoon. However, if they indicate that inflation is easing and that a rate increase is not likely in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

The only factual economic data of the week will be posted Friday morning. August’s Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates.

If I were consider ing financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond prices, closing, Dow, Fed, Float, fomc meeting, inflationary pressures, lower mortgage, major stock indexes, market move, mortgage rates drop, negative territory, news of the week, rate, U.S.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Oct. 6th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Oct. 6th

Monday’s bond market has opened up sharply after this morning’s stock markets are selling off again. The Dow is currently down 450 points while the Nasdaq has 100 points. The bond market is currently up 29/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

This morning’s stock losses has pushed the Dow below the 10,000 mark for the first time since late October 2004. I appears that this trend may continue, at least for the short-term and should benefit bonds as investors seek safe-haven. Accordingly, I am shifting to a float recommendation across the board. This may change back to lock at any time, but as long as stock are moving lower we should see mortgage rates follow suit.

This week brings us only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This means that the week will be left mostly up to the stock markets and other influences since there is a lack of factual data for bonds to trade on. In addition to the one report, we will also get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that can also cause movement in rates if it reveals any surprises.

The first news of the week comes tomorrow afternoon when the Fed will release the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher tomorrow afternoon. However, if they indicate that inflation is easing and that a rate increase is not likely in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, closing, factual data, Float, fomc meeting, inflationary pressures, market move, mortgage rates drop, news of the week, refinancing a home, stock, stock losses, stock markets, week