institute for supply management
Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 28th
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 28th
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This week brings us the release of only two pieces of economic news that are relevant to mortgage rates. It is another holiday-shortened week with the New Years Day holiday Thursday, so the data may have a heavier impact on trading than usual if it varies from forecasts by much. The bond market will close early Tuesday and possibly Friday as they did last week. With that type of schedule, many traders will not be working Wednesday or Friday, so any unexpected news or data may lead to a larger than usual reaction in the markets.
There is no relevant news scheduled for tomorrow. Look for any significant changes in stocks to drive bond trading and mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes remain fairly calm, it is possible that bond prices and mortgage rates may follow suit. However, I still believe there is a possibility of seeing year-end weakness in bonds that may drive mortgage rates higher. Accordingly, I am still recommending to proceed with caution of still floating an interest rate.
The first important release comes late Tuesday morning when the Conference Board will post its Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December. This is a pretty important release because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their personal financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely by market participants and can have a significant influence on mortgage rate direction. Current forecasts are calling for a minor increase confidence from November’s reading of 44.9. Analysts are expecting Tuesday’s release to show a reading of 45.2.
The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the New Year’s Day holiday. They will reopen Friday morning with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 35.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment fell from November’s 36.2. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.
Overall, I am still pessimistic towards mortgage rates, at least short-term. The week’s two reports are both considered important and can influence mortgage rates. If they report weaker than expected results, we could see rates close the week lower than last Friday’s closing levels. But, even if we get results that match forecasts, I suspect we will see selling in bonds and traders make year-end adjustments to their portfolios that could push mortgage rates higher for the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 26th
Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 26th
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Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, but not enough to affect this morning’s mortgage rates. The stock markets relatively calm with the Dow up 28 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but I am not expecting to see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates compared to Wednesday’s rates.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The bond market is expected to close at 2:00 PM ET again, therefore, I think we will see a relatively calm day in bonds and mortgage rates. Unless the stock markets make a drastic move from current levels, mortgage rates should close at this morning’s levels.
The bond market will reopen Monday morning for regular trading hours, but it is also a holiday-shortened week. We can expect a similar trading schedule as this week’s, with only two full trading days. We may see some volatility early in the week as investors make some year-end trans actions to finalize their end-of-year portfolios. I suspect that without some favorable data or influences, bonds may move lower the first part of the week. This could lead to higher mortgage rates the first couple of days.
There are only two relevant reports scheduled for release next week but both are considered to be of fairly high importance. Neither of them will be posted Monday, but December’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released Tuesday and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index Friday morning. Both of these can influence the markets enough to change mortgage rates.
Look for more details on next week’s schedule and events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days … Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 1st
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 1st
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Monday’s bond market has opened strong following weaker then expected economic news and a major sell-off in stocks. The stock markets are kicking the month off in the tank with the Dow down almost 400 points and the Nasdaq down 81 points. The bond market is currently up 30/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .500 of a discount point.
The week’s first piece of economic news was November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) late this morning. It showed a reading of 36.2 that was below forecasts and is the lowest reading since May 1982. That indicates that manufacturer sentiment was weaker than many had thought last month. Since that hints at slower manufacturing activity it is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The recent rally in bonds has put us in uncharted waters in terms of their yields. The benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note is currently yielding 2.82%, which is it lo west on record. It broke below 3.00% last week for the first time since the Notes were issued in 1962. While mortgage rates have not recently plummeted as quickly as the yield has, they have fallen quite a ways and show signs of continuing to slide. The downside to that is the possibility of rates spiking higher at any moment. Bond yields and mortgage rates can worsen much quicker than they usually improve. Therefore, we need to remain extremely cautious during this rally as we could see an entire week’s worth of gains erased in a single morning if any of the major influences on bonds turns negative.
The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes Wednesday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around economic growth, such as inflation that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%.
The Fed Beige Book will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.
Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but today will also likely be one of the more important. Tomorrow will probably be the lightest day of the week, assuming we don’t see another major sell-off or rally in stocks.
If I were considering financing/ refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 30th
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 30th
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There are five pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week. There are relevant reports scheduled for release every day except for Tuesday, meaning it likely will be a fairly active week for mortgage rates.
November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will kick off the week’s data at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 38.9. A weaker reading than the expected 38.0 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. That is a recessionary sign and could help keep mortgage rates low.
The next piece of data that we need to be conce rned with comes Wednesday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around economic growth, such as inflation that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%.
The Fed Beige Book will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.
Thursday’s only report of the day is October’s Factory Orders. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except that this one includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but we may see it cause some movement in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in orders of approximately 2.5%.
The Labor Department will post November’s Employment report early Friday morning. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for another upward change in the unemployment rate to 6.8%, payrolls down approximately 300,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage sho ppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 6.8%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings portion.
Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but we may also see movement in rates Monday and Wednesday. The remaining days could be fairly quiet, depending on stock market gains or losses. Friday’s data could cause a significant change in rates, but if it reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher Friday morning. Ahead of the report, we may see pressure in bonds as investors prepare for its release. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for short and intermediate-term periods.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking pla ce over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Nov. 28th
Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Nov. 28th
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Friday’s bond market has opened up slightly for what appears will be a very uneventful day in the markets. The stock markets have been fluctuating between positive and negative ground but at the moment are showing relatively minor losses with the Dow down 14 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, but we will still see a noticeable increase in this morning’s mortgage rates as traders balance portfolios after a fairly volatile week.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The bond market will close again at 2:00 PM and will reopen for regular hours Monday morning. I don’t think the early close will affect mortgage rates any further today, but with mortgage bonds not doing so well today, we may be set for a increase in rates come Monday morning.
Next week brings us the release of several important pieces of economic data that can heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates. The fi rst comes Monday morning with the release of November’s Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index. This release will give us an indication of manufacturer sentiment and is considered to be fairly important. Monday’s report is expected to show a reading of 38.0, which would a decline from October’s 38.9/ This would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates because the softening sentiment indicates that the manufacturing sector is still slowing. That translates into a weakening economy and eases inflation concerns.
There is relevant economic news scheduled for four of the five days next week, meaning we can expect to see an active week for mortgage rates. The week’s data ends with the almighty Employment report Friday morning that almost always has a significant impact on the markets and mortgage pricing. But look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 3rd
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 3rd
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Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are posting gains with the Dow up 42 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we may still see slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness late Friday.
The week’s first report came late this morning from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). They posted their Manufacturing Index for October, showing a reading of 38.9 that was well below forecasts and a 26-year low. The index measures manufacturer sentiment and this morning’s release indicated sentiment is softening. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing manufacturing activity usually means a weakening economy and eases inflation concerns.
Tomorrow’s only relevant news is September’s Factory Orders report. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes o rders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show 0.8% decline in orders from August’s level. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a smaller than expected drop is bad news.
There is no important data scheduled for release Wednesday. Thursday’s report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.
The last report of the week is the most important. Friday brings us the release of one of the most important monthly reports- the Employment report. The Labor Department will post October’s employment stats early Friday morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a 0.2% rise in unemployment to bring the national rate to 6.3%, a drop in payrolls of approximately 200,000 and a 0.2% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should rally bonds and lead to improvements in mortgage rates, especially if the stock markets react poorly to the news.
Overall, I am expecting to see a moderately active week in mortgage pricing. The key to the week will be Friday’s employment numbers, but any significant swings in the stock markets may also influence whether mortgage rates close the week higher or lower than this morning’s levels.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 31st
Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Oct. 31st
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Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, allowing mortgage rates to recover part of this week’s losses. The stock markets are showing small gains with the Dow up 25 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.
None of today’s three economic reports gave us any major surprises. The Labor Department said that the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits, rose 0.7% last quarter. This was expected and has not had much of an influence on the markets.
September’s Personal Income and Outlays report revealed a 0.2% rise in income and a 0.3% decline in spending. The income reading was slightly higher than expected, meaning that consumers had a little more income to spend that thought. The drop in spending was bigger than forecasted, meaning consumers were spend ing less than thought. The income reading can be considered negative news for bonds, but the drop in spending offsets that news. Therefore, this report also failed to push the markets either way.
The week’s last report was the University of Michigan’s revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. It showed a reading of 57.6 that nearly matched forecasts of no change to the 57.5 preliminary reading. Again, this data had little impact on the markets and mortgage rates.
Next week is fairly active in terms of economic releases for the markets to digest. Monday brings us the first with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index. This is usually the first report we see each month and is considered to be pretty important. It is expected to show that manufacturer sentiment slipped further in October.
The rest of the week also brings us some important data including October’s employment numbers next Fr iday. Look for more details on next week’s releases and events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 1st
Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 1st
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Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as investors show concern about today’s Senate vote on the Fed bailout plan. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 113 and the Nasdaq down 22 points following yesterday’s record gain in the Dow. The bond market is currently up 33/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point due to yesterday’s sell-off in bonds as stocks rallied.
Also helping boost bonds today was a large drop in the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for September. Today’s release revealed a reading of 43.5, which was its lowest reading since October 2001. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of 49.5, meaning manufacturer sentiment about business conditions was much lower than thought. This is good news for bonds because a weakening manufacturing sector indicates slowing economic activity and eases inflation concerns.
We need to again keep an eye on the stock markets and Fed bailout vote. The Senate is expected to vote on their plan this evening, after the markets close. Current polls are expecting the measure to pass the Senate vote, but the real question is what the House will do with it once they get it. Since current expectations are showing passage by the Senate, I don’t think we will see a massive sell off in stocks again today. It seems that the markets are more concerned about the House approving the bill if the Senate does approve it. As we get closer to the House vote, we will likely see the volatility in stocks rise.
The Commerce Department will post August’s Factory Orders data late tomorrow morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Cu rrent forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.9%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower tomorrow. However, look for the results form tonight’s Senate vote to heavily influence trading in the markets tomorrow morning.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Sep. 30th
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Sep. 30th
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Tuesday’s bond market has well in negative territory following a stock rebound that has shifted funds back away from bonds. The stock markets are rebounding after yesterday’s walloping with the Dow up 260 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. This means that the major stock indexes have recovered approximately one-third of yesterday’s losses. The bond market benefited form yesterday’s stock sell-off but is suffering today as investors move funds back into stocks. The result is the bond market down 13/32 that will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.
Today’s only economic news was September’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). It showed a reading of 59.8 that was much higher than forecasts had called for. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of 55.0, meaning that consumers had more confidence in their own financial situation than was expected. This is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because it indicates that consumers are more willing to make large purchases in the near future.
Tomorrow only relevant data is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for September. This index gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.4 decline from last month’s 49.9 reading. The 50.0 benchmark is extremely important because a reading below that level means more surveyed executives felt business worsened than those who said it had improved. This data is important not only because it measures manufacturer sentiment, but it is very recent data. Some economic releases track data that are 30-60 days old, but the ISM index is only a few weeks old. If we get a smaller than expected reading, I expect to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates fall tomorrow morning.
We need to keep an eye on the stock markets and Fed bailout attempt. I don’t think we will see much come today as the markets take a breather, but we probably will see more volatility in stocks before the end of the week. This could affect bond prices and mortgage rates. Generally speaking, look for stock weakness to lead to bond gains and lower mortgage rates as investors move funds into the safety of bonds. If the stock markets continue to move higher, we should see bonds suffer and mortgage rates move higher.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Sep. 29th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Sep. 29th
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Monday’s bond market has opened up sharply following another stock sell-off that has made the safety of bonds more attractive to investors. The stock markets are showing sizable losses following weekend news of another potential bank issue that has the Dow down 286 points and the Nasdaq down 83 points. The bond market is currently up 37/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.
Today’s only relevant economic news was August’s Personal Income and Outlays data. It showed that personal income rose more than expected with a 0.5% jump. This was bad news for bonds because it indicates that consumers have more income to spend. However, offsetting that reading was the spending portion of the report that showed no change in spending between July and August. This is good news since the reports was expected to show a 0.2% increase in spending.
Tomorrow’s big news is the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a decline from last month’s reading, indicating that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 55.0, down from August’s 56.9. If we see a larger than expected decline, we should see the bond market move higher and mortgage rates drop tomorrow.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for September late Wednesday morning. This index gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. Analysts are expecting little change from last month’s 49.9 reading. The 50.0 benchmark is extremely important because a reading below that level means more surveyed executives felt business worsened than those who said it had improved. This data is important not only because it measures manufacturer sentiment, but it is very recent data. Some economic releases track data that are 30-60 days old, but the ISM index is only a few weeks old. If we get a smaller than expected reading, I expect to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates fall Wednesday morning.
Overall, it is going to be a very active week in the markets and mortgage rates. The most important day will likely be Friday due to the employment report being scheduled, but tomorrow and Wednesday’s data can also fairly heavily influence mortgage rates. With important data being released each day of the week, and what appears to be another volatile week in stocks, I would recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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