Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock selling. The stock markets are following several international markets that posted losses during overnight trading. The Dow is currently down 188 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 51 points. This has helped push the bond market up 22/32 as investors seek safe-haven from falling stock prices. However, the impact on this morning’s mortgage rates has been fairly minimal. We will likely see little change from Friday’s morning rates due to volatility in trading late Friday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release this morning. The rest of the week brings us the release of four reports that may influence mortgage rates, but only one of them is considered to be highly important. With no relevant auctions or speeches on tap, I suspect we will see much less movement in mortgage rates this week compared to the past couple of weeks.

There are two reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. The first is July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that gives us an indication of inflation at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is more important because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices that can change significantly from month to month. Current forecasts call for a decline of 0.2% in the overall and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. A larger increase in the core data could push mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, we may see mortgage rates improve as a result.

The second report of the day is July’s Housing Starts data. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. However, it isn’t considered to be of high importance to the bond market or mortgage pricing and usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It is the least important of the week’s reports and is expected to show an increase in construction starts of new homes. The lower the number of starts the better the news for bonds as it would indicate a weaker than expected housing sector.

Overall, look for tomorrow to be the busiest day of the week due to the PPI being released. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. Therefore, keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing or refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all or any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of four reports that may influence mortgage rates, but only one of them is considered to be highly important. With no relevant auctions or speeches on tap, I suspect we will see much less movement in mortgage rates this week compared to the past couple of weeks. There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates.

There are two reports scheduled to be posted Tuesday morning. The first is July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that gives us an indication of inflation at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is more important because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices that can change significantly from month to month. Current forecasts call for a decline of 0.2% in the overall and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. A larger increase in the core data could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, we may see mortgage rates improve as a result.

The second report of the day is July’s Housing Starts data. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. However, it isn’t considered to be of high importance to the bond market or mortgage pricing and usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It is the least important of the week’s reports and is e= xpected to show an increase in construction starts of new homes. The lower the number of starts the better the news for bonds as it would indicate a weaker than expected housing sector.

The Conference Board will give us the its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July late Thursday morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months and is considered to be moderately important. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening more than thought. However, a weaker than expected reading means that the economy may not grow as much as predicted, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases inflation concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates Thursday if the stock markets remain calm. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.6% in the index, indicating economic growth over the next couple of months.

July’s Existing Home Sales will close out the week’s data Friday morning. The National Association of Rea= ltors will release this report, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It covers approximately 85% of home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts. It is expected t= o show an increase from June’s sales, meaning the housing sector is strengthening.

Overall, look for Tuesday to be the busiest day of the week with the PPI being released. The rest of the week will likely be influenced more by stock prices than anything else, which may be quite volatile. Therefore, keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again after this morning’s economic data failed to give us any major surprises. Contributing to today’s early bond strength is a weak opening for stocks that has the Dow down 131 points and the Nasdaq down 32 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .500 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us today’s most important data with the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). They reported that the overall index was unchanged form June’s level and that the core data reading rose 0.1%. Both of these readings matched forecasts, indicating that consumer prices remain in-check last month. But the index has fallen 2.1% over the past 12 months, matching the largest year-over-year decline since 1950. That is good news for bonds because it means that inflation is not currently a threat to the economy. Inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, leading to higher mortgage rates. When inflation concerns are low, bonds are usually more appealing to investors. As bonds are bought, their prices rise, pushing their yields and mortgage rates lower.

The second report of the day was Industrial Production data for July. It showed a 0.5% increase in output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.4% rise, meaning manufacturing activity was slightly stronger than expected.
This can be considered negative for bonds, but the minimal size of the variance and the fact that this data is not extremely important to the markets has prevented it from affecting this morning’s mortgage pricing. The final report of the week was the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for August late this morning. It gave us a reading of 63.2 that was well below forecasts of a 69.0 that was expected. That indicates that consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is good news for bonds because falling confidence usually translates into weaker levels of consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely.

Yesterday’s 30-year Bond auction went fairly well, leading to higher bonds prices during afternoon trading Thursday. This caused some lenders to revise their rates slightly lower late yesterday, while others may have waited until this morning to reflect those changes.

Next week is relative light in terms of economic releases, at least if comparing to the last two weeks. There is no relevant data scheduled to be posted Monday, but we will get another important inflation reading later in the week. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following much weaker than expected consumer spending news. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 27 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point. Preventing a slightly larger improvement in rates was weakness late yesterday after the FOMC meeting.

The Commerce Department announced this morning that retail level sales fell 0.1% last month. This was well off forecasts of a 0.7% increase, meaning that consumers were spending much less than expected. Even if volatile auto-related sales are excluded, sales fell much more than expected. This is very good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If consumer spending is still falling, the broader economic recovery cannot be close. Generally speaking, a weak economy is a better environment for bonds and makes mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

Also posted this morning were weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They reported that 558,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was an increase from the previous week, but more importantly, analysts were expecting to see a decline in new claims. However, since this data basically tracks only a week’s worth of claims, it usually has little impact on mortgage rates and has not influenced trading this morning.

Early this afternoon we will get the results of today’s 30-year Bond auction. This sale is not as important to mortgage rates as yesterday’s 10-year sale was. But if the auction is met with an overly strong demand from investors or a particularly weak interest, we may see bond prices move enough during afternoon trading to cause revisions to mortgage rates. The results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of three reports. The first is July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM. The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month. It measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The more important of the two is the core data because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Current forecasts call for no change in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. Declines in the readings, especially in the core data, should lead to a bond rally and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than expected readings will likely cause a spike in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

The remaining two pieces of data are relevant to mortgage rates but not nearly important as the CPI is. The second report of the day is Industrial Production data for July. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be of moderately high importance and may cause movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 0.4% increase in production between June and July. A larger increase in output could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow, but only if the CPI’s results are a non-factor in rates.

The last report of the day will come from the University of Michigan who will release its Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably help boost bond prices. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending is likely to continue, we may see mortgage rates move higher Friday morning. However, this is the least important of the day’s three reports and will probably have the least impact on rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock strength and concerns over today’s FOMC meeting adjournment. The stock markets are showing strong gains with the Dow up 130 points and the Nasdaq up 32 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

This morning’s only relevant economic data was June’s Trade Balance report that revealed a $27.0 billion deficit. This was smaller than expected, but this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets so its impact on this morning’s trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

It will likely be an active afternoon for the markets and mortgage rates. The results of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET and this week’s
FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET. Either of these events can lead to afternoon swings in the financial markets and mortgage rates, so expect to see some afternoon revisions today.

This report will be updated shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the FOMC statement, but I am holding my cautious approach towards rates into this afternoon’s events. I would not be surprised to see upward revisions to rates later today.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness and favorable result sin this morning’s economic news. The stock markets are posting noticeable losses with the Dow down 97 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which with yesterday’s late strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 – .500 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.

Today’s relevant economic data was Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter. It showed a sharp increase in productivity compared to the 1st quarter’s final reading. The 6.4% jump was higher than analysts had expected and is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. This data didn’t push stocks lower, but the drop in stocks has also helped boost bond prices this morning.

June’s Trade Balance report will be released early tomorrow morning. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but is the week’s least important report and likely will have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a $28.6 billion deficit, but it will take a wide variance to directly influence mortgage pricing.

The FOMC meeting that began today will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET tomorrow. It is expected to yield no change to key interest rates. Usually, the post-meeting comments seem to have more of an influence on the markets than the rate adjustments themselves, or a lack of one in many cases. Look for the statement to lead to volatility during afternoon trading if it hints at what the Fed’ s next move may be and when it will come. If the statement does not give us new information, mortgage rates will probably move little after its release.

The most important data of the week comes Thursday and Friday when we will get measurements of consumer spending, inflation at the consumer level of the economy, industrial production and consumer sentiment. This is where we will probably see the most movement in rates and I will remain very cautious towards rates until we get past the FOMC statement and those economic reports. I suspect that we may see bond prices react negatively to some of the upcoming events that will lead to another increase in mortgage rates.

Also worth noting are two important Treasury auctions this week. The sale of 10-year Notes will be held tomrorow while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday. We often see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as the firms participating prepare for them. However, as long as they are met with decent demand from investors, the firms usually buy them back. This tends to help recover any presale losses. But, if the sales are met with a lackluster interest from investors- particularly international buyers, the bond market may move lower after the results are posted and mortgage rates may move higher. Those results will be announced at 1:00 PM each sale day.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of six relevant economic reports in addition to another FOMC meeting. The first is Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter that will be released Tuesday morning. It will give us an indication of employee output. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without fears of inflation. I don’t see this being a big mover of mortgage pricing, but since it is the only data of the day it may influence rates slightly. Analysts are currently expecting to see an increase in productivity of 5.4%. A higher than expected reading could help improve bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates Tuesday.

June’s Trade Balance report will be released Wednesday morning. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but is the week’s least important report and likely will have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a $28.5 billion deficit, but it will take a wide variance to directly influence mortgage pricing.

The FOMC meeting will begin Tuesday morning and adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. It is expected to yield no change to key interest rates. Usually, the post-meeting comments seem to have more of an influence on the markets than the rate adjustments themselves, or a lack of one in many cases. Look for the statement to lead to volatility during afternoon trading if it hints at what the Fed’s next move may be and when it will come. If the statement does not give us new information, mortgage rates will probably move little after its release.

Thursday morning’s sole monthly report is July’s Retail Sales data. This data is very important to the financial markets and mortgage rates because it helps us measure consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any data related to it can cause a fair amount of movement in the markets. A smaller than expected increase would indicate that consumers are spending less than previously thought, potentially slowing the economic recovery. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it eases inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.7%.

Friday brings us the release of three reports. The first is July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM. The CPI is one of the most important reports we see each month. It measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. The more important of the two is the core data because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.  Current forecasts call for no change in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. Declines in the readings, especially in the core data, should lead to a bond rally and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than expected readings will likely cause a spike in mortgage pricing Friday.

The remaining two pieces of data are relevant to mortgage rates but not nearly important as the CPI is. The second report of the day is Industrial Production data for July. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be of moderately high importance and may cause movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 0.4% increase in production between June and July. A larger increase in output could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday, but only if the CPI is a non-factor.

The last report of the day will come from the University of Michigan who will release its Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 9:45 AM. This indexgives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably help boost bond prices. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending is likely to continue, we may see mortgage rates move higher Friday morning. However, this is the least important of the day’s three reports and will probably have the least impact on rates.

Also worth noting are two important Treasury auctions this week. The sale of 10-year Notes will be held Wednesday while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday. We often see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as the firms participating prepare for them. However, as long as they are met with decent demand from investors, the firms usually buy them back. This tends to help recover any presale losses. But, if the sales are met with a lackluster interest from investors- particularly international buyers, the bond market may move lower after the results are posted and mortgage rates may move higher. Those results will be announced at 1:00 PM each sale day.

Overall, look for the most movement in bond prices and mortgage rates the second half of the week. Thursday or Friday will likely turn out to be the most important day. If we get stronger than expected results in the Retail Sales and CPI releases, I fear that we may see mortgage rates spike higher fairly quickly. I suspect the FOMC meeting will not have as much of an influence on mortgage rates as recent meetings have, but the markets can react wildly to a single word or omission of a word in the statement, so we need to be cautious. This is certainly another week that continuous contact with your mortgage professional is highly recommended if you are still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday’s bond market has opened relatively flat with no important economic data on the schedule for today. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 15 points and the Nasdaq down 11 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

Today’s only semi-relevant data was weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They reported that 550,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was much lower than the 580,000 that was expected, but since this data basically tracks only a week’s worth of claims it usually has a minimal impact on mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the almighty monthly Employment report. This report gives us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of jobs added or lost during the month and the average hourly earnings reading for July. The ideal situation for the bond market is rising unemployment, a sizable loss of jobs and little change in earnings. This report is considered to be one of the single most important releases that we see each month, therefore, can heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates.

Current forecasts are calling for the unemployment rate to have risen 0.1% to 9.6% while approximately 328,000 jobs were lost. The unemployment rate probably will not be much of a factor unless it moved much more than the 0.1% that is expected. However, due to the importance of these readings, we will most likely see quite a bit of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing tomorrow morning if they vary from forecasts. If the data shows stronger readings such as fewer jobs lost in the month or a lower than expected unemployment rate, expect to see mortgage rates move higher tomorrow. Weaker than expected
readings should push mortgage rates lower.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would….
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as yesterday’s afternoon weakness continues into this morning’s trading. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 82 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department reported early this morning that 608,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was slightly higher than what analysts had expected, but not enough of a difference to have much influence on mortgage pricing.

The Conference Board gave us today’s second piece of news with the release of its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for May. It revealed a 1.2% increase that exceeded forecasts and points towards a sharp increase in economic activity over the next three to six months. This is bad news for bonds because strengthening economic activity makes bonds less appealing to investors and leads to higher mortgage rates.

Yesterday’s morning rally in bonds was short-lived as trading turned sour as the day went on. What looked like a potentially wonderful day for mortgage shoppers ended up being a bad day. A combination of a couple of factors led to the selling, including a weakening dollar that makes U.S. securities less valuable to international investors. The negative tone has carried into this morning’s trading and with no important economic data this afternoon or tomorrow to stop the selling, we may see mortgage rates revise higher this afternoon and possibly tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Mar. 24th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with no relevant data scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing minor losses compared to yesterday’s significant rally with the Dow down 42 points and the Nasdaq down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today’s selling does not completely surprise me. After the size of last week’s rally, there is still room for profit taking so that traders can capture the gains from that rally. They also need to prepare for upcoming economic reports, beginning with next week’s highly important data. With this being a fairly uneventful week in terms of expected announcements and the level of importance of the economic news on tap, traders are taking the opportunity to reposition their portfolios and prepare for the next few weeks.

There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is the week’s most important and comes from the Commerce Department. They will release February’s Durable Goods Orders early tomorrow morning. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of high importance. Analysts are expecting it to show a decline in new orders of approximately 2.4%. A smaller decline would be considered a negative for bonds and could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

The second of the day will be released at 10:00 AM ET. February’s New Home Sales report is expected to show a small decline in sales of newly constructed homes. But with tomorrow’s report covering only approximately 15% of all home sales, its result will likely have less of an impact on mortgage rates than yesterday’s Existing Home Sa les report did.

Thursday and Friday bring us the release of a couple of moderately important reports. Thursday’s final reading to the 4th Quarter GDP will likely not influence trading or mortgage rates much. Friday’s Personal Income and Outlays data, along with the revised reading to this month’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment are a little more important to rates than Thursday’s report is, but both are generally considered to be only moderately important. In other words, it will likely take a large variance from forecasts for them cause a noticeable change in mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were fin ancing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Mar. 22nd

This week brings us the release of six monthly and quarterly reports for the bond market to digest. Two of these reports can be considered much less important than the others, but with data scheduled for release four out of the five days we will still likely see movement in rates from day to day.

The first report of the week is February’s Existing Home Sales late tomorrow morning. It will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Its’ sister report- New Home Sales, will be posted Wednesday morning. Since tomorrow’s release is the day’s only data, it may influence bond trading enough to cause a slight change in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling both reports to show a decline in sales.

Wednesday’s important data comes from the Commerce Department, who will post February’s Durable Goods Orders. T his report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of high importance. Analysts are expecting it to show a decline in new orders of approximately 2.0%. A smaller decline would be considered a negative for bonds and could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.

The next relevant data is Thursday’s final revision to the 4th Quarter GDP. This is the second and final revision to January’s preliminary reading and is expected to show a downward revision of 0.4% to the reading that was posted last month. Analysts are now more concerned with next month’s preliminary reading of the 1st quarter than data from three to six months ago, so I don’t expect this report to affect mortgage rates much.

There are two relevant reports scheduled for release Friday. The first is February’s Personal Income & Outlays report. This data helps us measure consumers’ ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market because of the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer’s income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative affect on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% drop in income and a 0.3% increase in spending.

The second report comes from the University of Michigan at 9:45 AM ET. Their revision to the March consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers’ willingness to spend. It is expected to show little change from the previous reading of 56.6.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week. The sing le most important report will likely be the Durable Goods Orders, but none of the week’s data has the potential to be a major market mover. It will be interesting to see whether last week’s Fed news influences this week’s trading. After the huge rally, we saw some weakness in bonds at the end of the week, but this did not come as a surprise. If the stock markets start to move lower again, we should see gains in bonds and improvements in mortgage rates. But, if stocks continue to move higher, further pressure in bonds are possible, leading to higher mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and c annot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Mar. 18th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses and despite stronger than expected inflation news. The stock markets are posting sizable losses with the Dow down 128 points and the Nasdaq down 11 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning’s mortgage rates as the markets await the Fed’s words later this afternoon.

The Labor Department gave us today’s important data with the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It showed a 0.4% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data reading. Both readings were slightly stronger than expected, indicating prices at the consumer level of the economy were higher than thought. While that is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, the market seems to have downplayed the data in this morning’s trading.

This week’ s FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET today. There is not likely to be any change in short-term interest rates, but the markets will be looking for any indication if the Fed will be buying bonds as part of its effort to keep the markets liquid. If the Fed does start buying the debt, it should ease investor concerns about the amount of the debt that has been sold to fund the economic recovery and bailout programs. This would also likely prevent China, who made concerning comments last week, from selling some of their massive holdings in U.S. securities. The Fed move would also likely help keep mortgage rates low, possibly even driving them lower than current levels.

If the post-meeting statement indicates that the Fed is ready to start buying bonds, we could see an afternoon rally that may revise mortgage pricing lower this afternoon. However, any hint that the move may be delayed or is not going to happen would likely lead to selling in bonds and higher m ortgage rates later today.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Mar. 13th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following a strong open in stocks and comments made by China that raised concerns of potential selling in bonds. However, stocks have since given back their earlier gains. The Dow is now nearly unchanged while the Nasdaq is now down 7 points. The bond market is currently down 26/32, but strength yesterday will likely keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to yesterday’s levels.

The first of today’s two economic reports was January’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It showed that the U.S. trade deficit fell to $36.0 billion in January. This was lower than forecasts of a $38.0 billion deficit, but this data usually does not have a major influence on bonds or mortgage rates.

The second report of the morning was the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for March. It showed a reading of 56.6 that was a little higher than the 55.0 that was expected and a slight increase f rom February’s final reading. This means that consumer confidence was a little stronger than expected. That can be considered bad news for mortgage rates, but since the variance was minor it has not impacted trading this morning.

The comments made by China has some traders believing that they may begin to sell holdings in the near future. Since they hold approximately $727 billion of U.S. debt, or 6% of the total outstanding debt, a selling campaign would likely drive prices lower. Accordingly, traders are taking a cautious approach this morning.

Next week brings us the release of several important reports, including key inflation readings and another FOMC meeting. There is relevant data scheduled for release Monday when February’s Industrial Production data will be posted. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Mar. 12th

Thursday’s bond market has opened flat despite early stock gains and stronger than expected economic news. The Dow is currently up 99 points while the Nasdaq is up 14 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department posted February’s Retail Sales data this morning, revealing a 0.1% decline in sales. This was stronger than the 0.4% that was expected. Today’s release also revised January’s sales figures higher 0.8%, meaning that sales at the retail level of the economy were stronger than expected the past two months. That is considered to be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but the market seems to be shrugging off the data.

Also this morning, the Labor Department announced that 654,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than expected, but this weekly report usually does not carry much influence on the markets and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The 30-year Bond auction is being held today. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM, as yesterday’s 10-year Note sale. Yesterday’s sale was met with a strong demand from investors, which helped rally bonds during afternoon trading. The 10-year Note is more relevant to mortgage rates than the 30-year Bond, but a weak or strong sale today can lead to selling to selling or buying of bonds on a broader scale. So, if we get another strong interest in the sale, we may see bonds rally again this afternoon.

There are two economic reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. The first is the release of January’s Goods and Services Trade Balance. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week’s least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much. It is expecte d to show a trade deficit of $38.2 billion.

The second report of the morning is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 56.3.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now. .. This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Mar. 10th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks rallying behind favorable earnings news from Citigroup. The Dow is currently up 254 points while the Nasdaq has gained 60 points. The bond market is currently down 24/32, but I am expecting to see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

The news that banking giant Citigroup was profitable the first two months of the year has led to rally in many sectors that have been hit hard due to economic and stability news. Whether or not this rally is the beginning reversal for stocks or if this is just a good day in a bad quarter remains to be seen. It will be interesting to see if the major indexes can hold this morning’s gains during afternoon trading and over the next few days. If not, look for more selling in stocks that could benefit bonds and mortgage rates. However, if they continue to rise, we may see pressure in bonds that lead to high er mortgage rates in the near future.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release again today. The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic reports for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30 year Bond auctions. The first will be held tomorrow with results posted at 1:00 PM. It is fairly common to see weakness in bonds right before the sales as trading firms prepare for them. If the auctions are met with a strong demand, that weakness is usually erased almost immediately.

The most important of the three reports will be posted Thursday morning when February’s Retail Sales data is released. This report is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month’s report is expected to show a decline in sales of a pproximately 0.4%. If it reveals a larger decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals an increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise Thursday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Mar. 9th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. However, stocks have given back those gains to currently stand close to Friday’s closing levels. The Dow is currently up 4 points while the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30 year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, but this does not mean that we can expect to see a quiet week in mortgage rates. We could very well see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, but rates are likely to mo ve several days this week.

The most important of the three reports will be posted Thursday morning when February’s Retail Sales data is released. This report is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month’s report is expected to show a decline in sales of approximately 0.4%. If it reveals a larger decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals an increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise Thursday morning.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Thursday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of bot h sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. But I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week regardless of the auction results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Mar. 8th

This week brings us the release of three economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30 year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, but this does not mean that we can expect to see a quiet week in mortgage rates. We could very well see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, but rates are likely to move several days this week.

The most important of the three reports will be posted Thursday morning when February’s Retail Sales data is released. This report is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month’s report is expected to show a decline in sales of approximately 0.4%. If it reveals a larger decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals an increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise Thursday morning.

There will be two economic reports posted Friday morning. The first is the release of January’s Goods and Services Trade Balance. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week’s least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much.

Also on tap Friday is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending w ill likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late Friday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 56.3.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Thursday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. But I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week regardless of the auction results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 an d 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Mar. 6th

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s major economic news failed to hurt the recent enthusiasm in bonds. The stock markets are in negative ground, but were showing strong gains during early trading. The Dow is currently down 19 points while the Nasdaq has lost 12 points as the opening rally has fizzled. The bond market is currently up 5/32, which with yesterday’s gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the unemployment rate spiked to a 25-year high of 8.1% last month. This was higher than the 7.9% rate that was expected, which can be considered good news for bonds. The reports also revealed that 651,000 jobs were lost during the month, but that was very close to forecasts. It also revised February’s job loss higher by 57,000 jobs. The hourly earnings reading matched forecasts of a 0.2% increase.

Overall, t he unemployment rate was an attention magnet, but the other portions of the report are a non-factor in this morning’s trading and mortgage rates. The early rise then fall in stocks indicates that further weakness in them could be likely. That may benefit bonds as investors seek shelter from the volatility. However, if stocks can hold any type of a rally, the bond market could see considerable weakness, likely driving mortgage rates higher.

Next week is pretty light in terms of economic releases. There are only a couple of relevant reports scheduled to be posted, but one of them is highly important. None of the relevant news will be posted until mid-week, so look for a relative calm day for mortgage rates Monday unless the stock markets rally or sell-off again. Sunday’s weekly preview will have more details on next week’s events.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Fl oat if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Mar. 5th

Thursday’s bond market has opened strong following early stock weakness. The major stock indexes are showing significant losses after yesterday’s rally. The Dow is currently down 230 points while the Nasdaq is down 42 points. The bond market is currently up 34/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of only .125 – .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s economic news gave us results that were not favorable to bonds and mortgage rates. The Productivity revision revealed a much lower level of worker output than was expected. Today’s report showed a decline in output of 0.4% compared to the increase of 1.0% that was forecasted and the 3.2% gain that was estimated last month. It also showed a significant upward revision to the Unit Labor Costs portion of the report that raises wage inflation concerns. Even though this report is of medium importance to the markets, the revised readings are somewhat surprising.

The second report of the morning wasn’t much better either. The Commerce Department reported that Factory Orders fell 1.9% in January. This was stronger than analysts’ revised forecasts of a 3.5% decline, but today’s reports also revised December’s orders lower by 1.0%. That seemed to have offset the higher than expected reading, but this report is also considered to be of medium importance so its impact has been relatively minimal.

The Labor Department reported that 639,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was lower than expected and a decline from the previous week’s total.

Tomorrow morning brings us February’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a large drop in pa yrolls and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate to 7.9% and approximately 650,000 jobs lost during the month.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Mar. 1st

This week brings us the release of six economic reports to be concerned with. Two of the reports are considered to be very important, but nearly all of the week’s releases have the potential to affect mortgage rates. With reports being posted each day except Tuesday, we will likely see a fairly active week in mortgage rates.

The week’s first data comes tomorrow morning with the release of two relevant reports. The first is January’s Personal Income ad Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET, which gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts call for a decline in income of 0.2% while spending is expected to rise 0.42%. A larger than expected increase in spending would be bad news for the bond market and could drive mortgage rates higher. Weaker than forecasted numbers should help push mortgage rates slightly lower tomorrow.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manuf acturing index for February late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a pretty large impact on the financial and mortgage markets if it varies from forecasts. It is expected to show a decline from January’s 35.6 to 34.0 last month. This is important because a reading below 50.0 is a recession indicator, meaning that more surveyed manufacturers felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. If we see a weaker than expected reading, the bond market could rally. However, a higher than forecasted reading could lead to major selling in bonds, causing mortgage rates to rise.

The Fed Beige Book is the next report scheduled for release and it will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading Wednesday. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

There two reports scheduled for release Thursday morning. The first is the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary reading posted last month showed an annual rate of 3.2% increase in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see a sizable downward revision to the initial reading. It is expected to be cut to a 1.6% increase in output, meaning workers were not as productive as previously thought during the quarter. Employee productivity is watched fairy closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns.

January’s Factory Orders will be posted late Thursday morning, which will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week’s Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in new orders of approximately 2.1%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for the bond market and could lead to an improvement in mortgage rates.

The biggest news of the week comes Friday morning when one of the single most important monthly reports we see will be posted. The Labor Department will release February’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a large drop in payrolls and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate to 7.9% and approximately 615,000 jobs lost during the month.

Overall, look for a fairly active week for mortgage rates. I suspect there will be some optimism leading up to Friday’s Employment report, which is of concern to me. I believe the market is expecting to see very weak numbers Friday morning and has already built that into current pricing. The problem is that if it meets forecasts, or is even slightly stronger than expected, we could see bonds drop and mortgage rates rise. Because of this, I may be extending the lock recommendation to longer periods before Friday’s data. Friday is undoubtedly the biggest day of the week, but tomorrow may also bring noticeable movement in mortgage rates. Please be careful this week if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if m y closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Feb. 25th

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

The bond market has turned sour as investors again worry about the amount of new debt being sold to fund the stimulus and Fed bailout packages. The stock markets rallied off this morning’s lows during early afternoon trading but have since given back those gains to currently stand at this morning’s levels. The Dow is now down 80 points while the Nasdaq is down 16 points. The bond market has fallen from this morning’s levels to currently stand down 39/32, which will likely cause an upward revision to this afternoon’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point from this morning’s rates.

Today’s only economic data was January’s Existing Home Sales that showed a decline in home resales of 5.3%. This was much weaker than expected and the lowest level of sales in almost 12 years. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but this data is not considered to be of high importance and unfortunately has not influenced today’s rates.

The only important data scheduled for release tomorrow is January’s Durable Goods Orders data. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for items expected to last three or more years. A larger drop than the 2.5% that is expected would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. This data is quite volatile from month-to-month, so large swings are fairly normal.

We will also get weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department, who are expected to show that 625,000 new claims were filed last week. Since this data tracks a week’s worth of claims, it usually does not affect mortgage rates too much, but can if it varies greatly from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my clos ing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Feb. 24th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following news of a plummet in consumer confidence last month and word that the Fed expects it to take a couple of years for the economy to fully recover from the recession. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow currently up 48 points while the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Conference Board gave us February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late this morning, showing a reading of 25.0. This was an all-time low and indicates that consumers are still concerned about their jobs and own financial situations. That is expected to mean that they are less likely to make large purchases in the near future, which will limit economic growth. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also this morning was Mr. Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy to the Senate Banking Committee. During his testimony he stated that he was optimistic that the recession would end later this year, but that it would take two to three years for the economy to fully recover from it. He also said that restoring financial stability is needed for the economy to recover. None of this is a major surprise but making it official word from Chairman Bernanke gives the markets benchmarks to follow.

January’s Existing Home Sales report will be posted late tomorrow morning. This is one of the least important reports of the week, along with Thursday’s New Home Sales report. They measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually do not have a significant impact on bond trading or mortgage rates. The Existing Home Sales report is expected to show an increase in sales but new home sales are expected to fall slightly.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my clo sing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 23rd

Monday’s bond market is currently down slightly despite stock losses. The Dow is currently down 53 points while the Nasdaq has lost 20 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The bond market and stock indexes are well off earlier levels. The stock markets opened in positive territory with the Dow up nearly 75 points earlier and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market was down 12/32 during early trading, but as the stock markets have given back early gains and slid into negative ground, bonds are rising. This is likely as a result of investors shifting funds into bonds to escape the expected volatility in stocks. Some analysts are predicting stocks to fall further in the near future and bonds are benefiting.

This week brings us the release of six pieces of economic data for the bond market to digest along with some very important tes timony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Two of the reports are considered to be of low importance, but a couple of them are considered to be of fairly high importance. None of this week’s relevant data is being released today.

Tomorrow morning brings us the first of this week’s data with the release of February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) during late morning trading. This Conference Board index measures consumer confidence in their personal financial situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy, related data is considered important in terms of gauging economic activity. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from 37.7 in January to 36.0 this month. A lower reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Mr. Bernanke will deliver the Fed’s semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy late tomorrow morning. He will be speaking to the Se nate Banking Committee and market participants will watch his words very closely. The Fed Chairman is required to deliver this testimony twice a year, which is considered to be of extreme importance to the financial markets. We almost always see the markets move as a result of what he says during this testimony. Look for him to address the banking and housing crises specifically and their impact on the overall economy. His testimony begins at 10:00 AM ET with a prepared statement then is followed by Q & A with committee members. I am expecting to see the markets fluctuate during this session, possibly affecting mortgage rates also.

Overall, look for plenty of movement in bond prices and mortgage rates this week. I think we will see the most movement either tomorrow or Thursday, but Friday may be fairly active also. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I wou ld…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Feb. 17th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up sharply as economic concerns and strong stock weakness has brought bonds into favor this morning. The Dow is currently down 243 points while the Nasdaq has lost 43 points. The bond market is currently up 58/32, but we will likely see an improvement of .250 – .375 in this morning’s mortgage rates.

There are no relevant economic reports scheduled for release today. There are five economic reports worth watching this week that are likely to affect mortgage rates in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Tomorrow brings us three of those releases, including the week’s least important. January’s Housing Starts will be posted early tomorrow morning, giving us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It usually does not affect rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in starts of new housing.

January’s Industrial Production da ta will be released mid-morning tomorrow. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories. Mines and utilities and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Analysts are expecting to see 1.4% decline in production from December to January. A larger than expected decline in output would be good news and should push bond prices higher, lowering mortgage rates tomorrow.

The minutes from last FOMC meeting will be released tomorrow afternoon. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move regarding monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. However, with little likelihood of the Fed making a change to key short-term rates anytime soon, these minutes will likely not heavily influence trading or lead to a change in mortgage rates during afternoon trading.

Overall, the most important day of the week will likely be Friday with the CPI being released, but tomorrow and Thursday may also be active days for mortgage rates. There is a strong likelihood of seeing an active week for mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Feb. 13th

Friday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory despite the release of weaker than expected results in today’s only economic news. The stock markets are flat during early trading with the Dow up 2 points and the Nasdaq is up 4 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was today’s only relevant data on the schedule. It showed a reading of 56.2 that was well below forecasts of 60.2. This indicates that consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than analysts had expected. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it usually means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future.

Today’s weakness is due to attention turning back to the amount of debt expected to be brought to market to fund the economic stim ulus package that is being considered by Congress. With an approval seeming like a good possibility, the potential new supply for government debt has traders concerned.

Also contributing to this morning’s weakness may be an expectation of a stock rally once the approvals are announced. That would create a scenario that makes stocks more appealing to investors and lead to a shift in funds from bonds to stocks. It appears that the selling in bonds may be in part a move by some traders as an effort to get back into stocks if the plan is approved.

There is an early close in the bond market today ahead of Monday’s President’s Day Holiday, but I don’t think it will negative affect bonds or mortgage rates today. The financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday for normal trading hours.

Next brings us the release of a couple of important reports including two key inflation readings. None of the important data is scheduled for r elease Tuesday, but look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Feb. 11th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again as traders continue to digest yesterday’s activities on the economic stimulus and Fed bailout packages. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday’s sell off but have only been able to recover part this losses so far. The Dow is currently 55 points and the Nasdaq is up 8 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today’s only economic news was December’s Goods and Services Trade Balance that showed a trade deficit of $39.9 billion in December. This was a larger than expected deficit with latest forecasts calling for it to stand at $35.7 billion. But it was still the lowest trade deficit since February 2003. Unfortunately, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second stage of this week’s quarterly refunding or sales of govern ment debt is today with 10-year Treasury Notes being sold. The results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If it was met with strong demand, easing recent fears about the amount of debt being sold to fund the economic stimulus and Fed bailout programs, we should see bond prices move higher during afternoon trading. This may lead to a downward revision in mortgage rates. However, if the sale was met with a poor demand, we could see selling in bonds this afternoon that will lead to upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of January’s Retail Sales data. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched quite closely. If tomorrow’s report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall. However, a stronger reading than current forecast of a d ecline in sales of 0.3% may drive mortgage rates higher tomrorow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Feb. 10th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well into positive territory as last night’s speech by President Obama and his bank bailout plan are being received favorably. The stock markets are not reacting as well to the news with the Dow down 295 points and the Nasdaq down 49 points. The bond market is currently up 28/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee at 1:00 PM ET today. He is expected to testify and update the panel on the Fed’s liquidity injections and future plans. His words could create movement in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing during afternoon trading. After this morning’s warm reception to the President’s plan, I don’t think that it is likely that we will have a negative reaction to Chairman Bernanke’s testimony.

However, this week begins the quarterly refunding or sales of government debt that has had traders so concerned about recently. We will likely see more volatility as the week goes on, and as the sales take place. A total of $67 billion in new debt is being sold this week, which had raised concern about demand for current debt already in the market. That is what has pressured bonds recently and helped drive mortgage rates higher. If the market can get by that stigma or concern, we could see mortgage rates rally in the coming weeks.

There was no relevant data scheduled for release this morning. Tomorrow brings us the first of this week’s three releases when the least important of them, December’s Goods and Services Trade Balance, will be posted. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I w ould…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Feb. 5th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of favorable economic reports. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 44 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Both of this morning’s important releases gave us favorable results. Even weekly unemployment numbers that are not considered highly important came in weaker than expected. The Labor Department said that 626,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was the largest weekly filing since October 1982 and helps support the theory that tomorrow’s monthly employment report will show bleak numbers.

The two more important reports were December’s Factory Orders and 4th Quarter Productivity numbers. The factory orders data showed a larger than expected drop of 3.9% in new orders. This was the fifth consecutive mo nthly decline in orders, which is a first for the report. Analysts were expecting to see a decline of 3.0%, meaning manufacturing activity is slower than thought. In addition, today’s report also revised November’s decline in orders from 4.6% to 6.5% that is now the largest monthly decline since July 2000.

The 4th Quarter Productivity and Costs data was the third piece of news posted this morning. It showed a surprising jump of 3.2% in worker output. This was more than double what analysts had expected, meaning workers were more productive in each hour worked last quarter. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report. It will give us the unemployment rate, number of jobs lost or added to the economy last month and average hourly earnings. Analysts are expecting it to show that the unemployment rate jumped 0.3% to 7.5% last month while 500,000 jobs were lost. The average earnings reading is expected to show that earnings rose 0.3%. A higher unemployment rate and larger job loss would be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. If we do get favorable results, I would expect to see bonds rally and mortgage rates fall tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Feb. 3rd

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite a lack of economic news. The stock markets are showing moderate gains with the Dow up 35 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, but we will likely still see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due top strength in bonds late yesterday.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release today. Tomorrow’s only data is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) service index. It is similar to yesterday’s manufacturing index but tracks the service sector. If it shows a significant surprise, it may affect bond trading enough to slightly change mortgage rates. However, more times than not its results do not affect rates.

The first of Thursday’s two reports is the release December’s Factory Orders data. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders report except this one tracks new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of 3.0%. I large variance from forecasts could lead to changes in mortgage pricing.

The only quarterly report being released of any importance is Thursday’s Productivity and Costs data for the 4th Quarter. Since a high level of productivity is thought to allow economic growth without inflationary concerns, this data can cause enough movement in the bond market to affect mortgage rates. If it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts of a 1.0% increase, we may see some movement in mortgage rates Thursday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financi ng a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 2nd

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly following the release of mixed economic data. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 59 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points during early trading. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There were two pieces of relevant economic data posted this morning. The first was December’s Personal Income and Outlays report that revealed a 0.2% decline in income and a 1.0% drop in spending.

Forecasts were calling for a 0.4% decline in income and a 0.9% drop in spending. In other words, income didn’t drop as much as expected, but spending was slower than forecasted. These readings, along with downward revisions to November’s results have prevented this report form influencing this morning’s mortgage pricing.

The Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index was today’s other releas e. It showed a reading of 35.6, up from December’s revised 32.9 reading. This indicates that surveyed manufacturers were more optimistic about business conditions the last two months than many had thought. This is considered negative news for bonds because rising levels of sentiment could mean that the manufacturing sector may have reached bottom. However, this was the 12th consecutive month of a reading below 50 that means more surveyed business executives felt business worsened than those who felt it had improved, which is a recession sign.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release tomorrow. There is a report Wednesday that has the potential to influence the markets and mortgage rates but quite often is a non-factor. The ISM will release their services sector index late Wednesday morning. It is similar to today’s manufacturing index but tracks the service sector. If it shows a significant surprise, it may affect bond trading enough to slightly chan ge mortgage rates. However, more times than not its results do not affect rates.

Overall, look for a fairly active week in the markets and mortgage rates. Friday will likely be the most important day of the week due to the influence the Employment report has on the markets. But, as we have seen lately we don’t necessarily need economic news for mortgage rates to move significantly. Therefore, it would be a good idea to maintain contact with your mortgage professional the next few days.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Jan. 29th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, continuing yesterday afternoon’s selling. The stock markets are also showing losses as they give back a good portion of yesterday’s gains. The Dow is currently down 154 points while the Nasdaq has lost 36 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will push this morning’s mortgage rates approximately .125 – .250 higher than yesterday’s revised rates. This should equate to approximately .500 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s morning rates.

This morning’s economic data actually gave us favorable results. The Commerce Department said that new orders for big-ticket items, or Durable Goods, fell 2.6% last month. This was a larger than expected decline, but making the news even better was a significant reduction to November’s orders that was revised from down 1.0 to down 3.7%. This means that orders for products that are expected to last or more years were lower than expected. This is considered good news for bonds because it indicates a still weakening manufacturing sector.

December’s New Home Sales report was also posted this morning, revealing a sharp decline in sales of newly constructed homes. The 14.7% drop in December’s sales were the weakest level of sales since records started being kept on them in 1963. This indicates a still softening housing sector that is generally good news for bonds.

There are three reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is one of the most important reports that we see regularly. The initial reading of the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be posted early tomorrow morning. This data is so important because it is considered to be the best measure of economic growth. The GDP itself is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the United States. Its’ results usually have a major impact on the financial markets and can cause significant changes in mortgage rates. There are three readings to each quarter’s activity, each released approximately one month apart. The first, which usually carries the most volatility, is expected to be a decrease of 5.4%. A weaker reading would be great news for the bond market, but the 5.4% decline would be the biggest quarterly drop in 26 years.

The 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) is also scheduled for release early tomorrow morning. It measures employer costs for employee wages and benefits, giving us an indication of the threat of wage inflation. It usually has more of an effect on the bond market than the stock markets. Current forecasts are showing an increase of 0.7%. A lower than expected reading would be favorable to bonds and mortgage rates, but the GDP reading will be the biggest influence on trading and rates tomorrow morning.

The last report of the week is the revised reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer co nfidence, which is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend. I don’t see this data having much of an impact on the markets or mortgage rates due to the importance of the employment index and GDP figures. It is expected to show no change from the preliminary reading of 61.9.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 28th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite early stock gains. The stock markets are currently showing noticeable gains with the Dow up 118 points and the Nasdaq up 41 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which with yesterday’s late gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data being released today. Later this afternoon though we will get the results of the year’s first FOMC meeting. It will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET but it is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rates and probably will not heavily influence trading or mortgage rates. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move in the post meeting statement. However, I am not expecting major impact on the markets or mortgage rates because the Fed can’t lower key rates much more. There is little chance of indicating a possible rate hike in the near future, so I do n’t believe that this meeting will have the influence they usually do.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of December’s Durable Goods Orders. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years. The data often is quite volatile from month to month, but is currently expected to show a decline in orders of 2.0%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

December’s New Home Sales report, the sister release to Monday’s Existing Home Sales, will be posted late tomorrow morning. It is expected to show another decline in sales of new homes, but is not important enough to heavily influence mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 23rd

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory yet again even with the stock markets mixed. The Dow is currently down 109 points while the Nasdaq is currently up 3 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. If the stock markets remain near current levels, we should see bond prices and mortgage rates likely follow suit. However, a rebound in stocks could lead to higher mortgage rates this afternoon.

Next week brings us the release of several relevant reports for the markets to digest. There are two scheduled to be posted Monday, but neither are considered to be highly important. We will get December’s Existing Home Sales and Leading Economic Indicators late Monday morning.

The rest of the week has several important reports scheduled for release in addition t o the first FOMC meeting of the year. I am expecting to see a very active week in the markets and mortgage pricing. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 21st

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors continue to fret about upcoming debt sales. The stock markets are rebounding somewhat from yesterday’s sell-off with the Dow up 77 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by another .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Tomorrow brings us the release of both of this week’s only reports. Neither are considered to be of high importance to the markets, but they are the week’s only factual releases. Therefore, they may influence trading enough to slightly affect mortgage pricing.

The first is December’s Housing Starts report early tomorrow morning. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading. It is expected to show a d ecline in starts of new homes from November’s level.

The second is weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 548,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This would be an increase from the previous week, which would be considered favorable for bonds. If the report shows a much smaller number of claims, we may see bond prices fall and mortgage rates move higher again. However, a larger than expected number may lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of a ll/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 13th

Tuesday’s bond market opened in negative territory as traders prepare for the next three day’s economic releases. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 6 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s only economic data wasn’t considered to be relevant but its surprise reading is worth noting. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. Trade Deficit stood at $40.4 billion in November, down sharply from the $56.7 billion in October. This data usually is not of much importance to the markets or mortgage rates, but it did catch the attention of traders since it was its lowest reading in 5 years. The data has not had much of an influence on this morning’s mortgage rates since the large decline is being attributed to the huge drop in oil prices. However, more eyes will be watching next month’s relea se, which may allow it to impact bond trading and possibly mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow kicks off the week’s important releases with December’s Retail Sales data being posted during early morning trading. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of approximately 1.2%. A larger drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Thursday and Friday will also be important days due to the PPI being posted Thursday and the very important CPI on Friday. There is also other data scheduled for release Friday, so I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates over the next three days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Jan. 8th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early weakness in stocks. The stock markets are showing losses during morning trading again that have helped keep bonds in positive ground. The Dow is currently down 86 points while the Nasdaq has lost 2 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s only economic news was weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They reported this morning that 467,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was much lower than the 550,000 that was expected and a decline from the previous week’s 491,000. Fortunately for the bond market and mortgage pricing, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets because it tracks a single week’s worth of claims. But, it does create some concern about what tomorrow’s monthly report will reveal.

The final re port of the week comes early tomorrow morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is considered to be one of the most important monthly releases we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a larger than expected drop in new payrolls and a small increase or even a decline in earnings would be good news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 7.0%. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in payrolls in the neighborhood of 500,000 with earnings rising 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve tomorrow. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 7th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened up slightly following strength late yesterday and morning losses in stocks today. The Dow and Nasdaq are both showing weakness with losses of 158 points and 35 points respectively. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but due to late gains in bonds yesterday, we should see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point.

Helping to boost bond prices late yesterday was the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. They indicated that the Fed feels the economy will continue to weaken with the GDP falling and unemployment rising next year. This eased some concerns in the bond market that the economy may strengthen with another economic stimulus package, making long-term securities such as bonds less attractive to investors.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today and the only slightly relevant news scheduled for release tomorrow are weekly unemployment c laims from the Labor Department. They are expected to show that 550,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. However, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets because it tracks a single week’s worth of new claims.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is considered to be one of the most important monthly releases we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a larger than expected drop in new payrolls and a small increase or even a decline in earnings would be good news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 7.0%. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in payrolls in the neighborhood of 475,000 with earnings rising 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 6th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as long-term securities are falling out of favor with investors. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 46 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by another .375 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department posted November’s Factory Orders data this morning, reporting a drop of 4.6% in new orders. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength and was expected to show a decline in orders of 2.6%. This means that the manufacturing sector was weaker than expected. However, even though this is good news for bonds, other pressures are making the results a non-factor in today’s trading.

The 10-year TIPS Notes (inflation-indexed securities) will be auctioned today with its results being posted at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was strong, we sh ould see bonds strengthen during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest in the sale could cause bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to move higher following the announcement of the sale results.

Later this afternoon we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed’s future moves toward interest rates, even though the Fed appears to be running out of options. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates. I am expecting to see more pressure in bonds, until at least Friday when we will get December’s Employment report.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 4th

This week bring us the release of only two monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. However, in addition to those two reports, we also will see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and a couple of Treasury auctions that may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates.

The first of the two reports will be posted late Tuesday morning when the Commerce Department releases November’s Factory Orders data. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last month, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 2.6% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates.

Also Tuesday will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed’s future moves toward interest rates, even though the Fed appears to be running out of options. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

There are two Treasury auctions that are worth watching also. The 10-year TIPS Notes (inflation-indexed securities) will be auctioned Tuesday while the traditional 10-year Treasury Note will be sold Thursday. If investor demand for these sales is strong, we should se e bonds strengthen during afternoon trading those days and possibly improve mortgage rates slightly. However, a lackluster interest in the sales could cause bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to move higher following the announcement of the sale results.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is considered to be one of the most important monthly releases we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a larger than expected drop in new payrolls and a small increase or even a decline in earnings would be good news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 7.0%. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in payrolls in the neighborhoo d of 475,000 with earnings rising 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for Tuesday to be important with the economic data, FOMC minutes and one of the two more important Treasury auctions. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we will probably see mortgage rates move higher again.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guarante ed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 2nd

Friday’s bond market has opened flat despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are starting the new year in positive ground with the Dow up 122 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently almost unchanged from Wednesday’s close, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today’s only economic news was the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index. It showed a reading of 32.4, which was its lowest reading since June 1980. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of 35.4, meaning that manufacturer sentiment was weaker than many had thought. This is favorable news for bonds but due partly to this morning’s stock gains, this data has failed to push mortgage rates lower.

The bond market will close early again today, therefore, I don’t believe we will see much of an improvement in today’s rates. In fact, we may see so me additional pressure on bonds as traders close the shortened week. This may lead to upward revisions to mortgage rates before today’s 2:00 PM close.

Next week is fairly busy in terms of economic releases. There is no relevant news scheduled for release Monday, but the rest of the week brings us the release of several reports that may affect mortgage rates including December’s Employment report next Friday. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 26th

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, but not enough to affect this morning’s mortgage rates. The stock markets relatively calm with the Dow up 28 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but I am not expecting to see much of a change in this morning’s mortgage rates compared to Wednesday’s rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The bond market is expected to close at 2:00 PM ET again, therefore, I think we will see a relatively calm day in bonds and mortgage rates. Unless the stock markets make a drastic move from current levels, mortgage rates should close at this morning’s levels.

The bond market will reopen Monday morning for regular trading hours, but it is also a holiday-shortened week. We can expect a similar trading schedule as this week’s, with only two full trading days. We may see some volatility early in the week as investors make some year-end trans actions to finalize their end-of-year portfolios. I suspect that without some favorable data or influences, bonds may move lower the first part of the week. This could lead to higher mortgage rates the first couple of days.

There are only two relevant reports scheduled for release next week but both are considered to be of fairly high importance. Neither of them will be posted Monday, but December’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released Tuesday and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index Friday morning. Both of these can influence the markets enough to change mortgage rates.

Look for more details on next week’s schedule and events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days … Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 23rd

Tuesday’s bond market has opened flat after this morning’s economic data failed to show any major surprises. The stock markets are reacting similarly with the Dow down 16 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close. The bond market is also practically unchanged but we will still see an increase in this morning’s rates of approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

The first of today’s four reports was the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP that showed a 0.5% decline. This matched forecasts but was not likely to significantly impact mortgage pricing anyhow. The data is quite aged by now and next month we get the initial reading on this quarter’s activity, so analysts do not pay much attention to this version of the report unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

November’s Existing and New Home Sales reports were both posted this morning and both revealed larger than expected drops in sales. This indicates that the housin g sector is still softening and not near the ?floor? that many are attempting to predict. However, this is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weakening housing sector will make slow the economic recovery and keeps inflation fears to a minimal.

The last report of the day did reveal a higher than expected level of consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for December was revised and showed a higher level of sentiment than the previous estimate. The reading of 60.1 means that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situation than many had thought. This is considered bad news for bonds because rising sentiment means that consumers are more apt to make large purchase sin the near future. Still, this report ha snot had a significant impact ton today’s trading.

The last event of the day is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. If the sale is met with a decent demand from investors, we could se e interest in other notes and bonds such as mortgage-related bonds increase during afternoon trading. But, a lackluster interest from investors may also lead to weakness in bonds and possible upward afternoon revisions to mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of November’s Durable Goods Orders and the Personal Income and Outlays report. The Durable Goods Orders report tracks new orders for big-ticket items and is expected to show a drop of 3.1%. The Income and Outlays report is likely to show that personal income was unchanged from October and that spending fell 0.8% last month. Weaker readings would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is an early close tomorrow ahead of the Christmas Day holiday. The markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the holiday but will be open Friday. The bond market will close early Friday also. However, I am expecting to see a very quiet couple of days as many traders are home for the holidays.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 19th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains and a lack of economic data to drive trading. The stock markets are reacting favorably to news of an approval to use bailout funds U.S. automakers. However, the rally has lost some steam as the major indexes are well off earlier highs. The Dow is currently up 95 points but was up 180 points earlier while the Nasdaq has gains 25 points.

The bond market is currently down 14/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates. I still think there is not much chance of rates improving considerably lower than current levels, at least not in the immediate future. Accordingly, we should proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the immediate future.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. I am expecting the bond market and mortgage rates to remain near current levels, as long as the stock markets don’t rally past earlier highs or give up much more of their current gains. As long as stocks remain fairly calm this afternoon, I believe mortgage pricing will also.

Next week brings us the release of a handful of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are only two that can be considered of somewhat high importance to mortgage rates and neither are scheduled for release Monday. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best intere st of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 18th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite slightly stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets have fluctuated between positive and negative ground during early trading, but are fairly flat at this point with the Dow down 28 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently up 20/32, however, we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates as a result of weakness late yesterday. After peaking during afternoon trading, bonds closed well off their earlier highs. This led some lenders to revise rates higher yesterday, but many waited to reflect those changes in this morning’s pricing.

The Labor Department reported that 554,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week’s 575,000 initial claims, but was pretty close to forecasts. Therefore, the news has had a minimal impact on bond trading and mortgage rates.

The Conference Board gave us their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the month of November late this morning. They reported a decline of 0.4% that was slightly stronger than the 0.5% drop that was expected. This means that economic activity may slow over the next three to six months, but at a slightly slower pace than many had thought.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates. I am still concerned about further increases in mortgage rates from their recent lows, so please proceed cautiously if still floating a rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a h ome. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 17th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened up sharply as investors continue yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 114 points and the Nasdaq down 20 points. The bond market is currently up 45/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates nearly a full percentage point in rate compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting yielded a .750 cut to key short-term interest rates to bring the Fed Funds rate down to a record low of .250%. That, along with the post meeting statement, led to a huge rally in bonds and stocks late yesterday. While the stock markets are giving back some of those gains, bonds have built on top of them. However, it is difficult to see where bonds may be able to improve much more before pulling back. Accordingly, I would proceed cautiously if you have not locked and interest rate yet.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today, so there is no data to drive bonds prices higher than current levels. With stocks in negative ground, bonds may appear more attractive to investors, at least short-term. But, I would not be surprised to see some profit-taking in bonds to capture the gains from the recent rally. If this is the case, we may see mortgage rates revise a little higher during afternoon trading.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. This data is not usually of much importance to the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of new claims. However, the second report of the day is only moderately important so if this data varies greatly from forecasts it could influence bonds enough to affect mortgage pricing. It is expected to show that 558,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week.

The week’s last piece of economic news will be posted tomorrow morning with the release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicat ors (LEI) for the month of November. This 10:00 AM release attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a sizable decline in activity, meaning that it predicts slower economic activity over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.5% decline from October’s reading. If it shows a larger decline, the bond market may move slightly higher, improving mortgage rates slightly.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best int erest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 16th

TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

Today’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of a .750 cut to key short-term interest rates. This brings the benchmark Fed Funds rate to a record low of .250%. The post meeting statement also indicated that rates will likely remain that low for some time. They noted that the economy could get weaker and that the threat of inflation had eased “appreciably.”

The reaction in the markets was favorable for stocks and bonds. The Dow closed up 360 points while the Nasdaq closed up 81 points. Despite those gains, the bond market did well also, currently up 47/32, which will likely improve this afternoon’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us this week’s most important economic news with the release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). They reported that the overall index reading fell 1.7% last month. This was a larger drop than was expected and the lar gest monthly decline since February 1947, indicating that prices for energy are still falling rapidly. The core data reading, that excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged last month. Analysts were expecting to see a slight increase in the core reading. This means that prices at the consumer level of the economy were lower than expected, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because falling prices means inflation is not really a threat.

November’s Housing Starts was also posted this morning and also showed a record low. It revealed a decline in starts of new homes of nearly 19% and a drop of 15% in permits for new construction starts. This means that the housing sector is still weakening and appears to be well off a “bottom” that people are trying to predict.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for today’s events to carry into tomorrow’s trading. The next piece of relevant economic da ta will be November’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) late Thursday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 11th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected numbers in some minor economic reports and a fairly uneventful morning in stocks. The stock markets are flat with the Dow currently nearly unchanged and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

Neither of today’s reports are considered to be market movers, so their results have had little impact on this morning’s mortgage pricing. The first was October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report that showed a trade deficit of $57.2 billion. This was much larger than the $53.5 billion deficit that was expected. However, we have not seen this news affect trading or mortgage rates today.

The second was last week’s unemployment claims figures by the Labor Department. They reported that 573,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, grea tly exceeding forecasts. This is also a 26 year high for new claims, meaning that the employment sector may still be weakening. This is generally good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but since the data tracks only a week’s worth of claims it usually does not heavily influence the markets.

Also worth mentioning is the 10-year Treasury Note auction today that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand for the sale, we may see bonds move higher and mortgage rates revise lower during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release lf November’s Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts call for it to show a 2.0% decline in sales from October’s levels. If it reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates should fall as a result. A stronger than expected reading could fuel stock market gains and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning.

Also tomorrow and just as important as the sales data, the Labor Department will release November’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If tomorrow’s release reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker tha n expected numbers, the bond market should fair well and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are showing a 2.0% drop in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data.

The fourth and final report of the week is December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly. However, with the Retail Sales and PPI reports out before this data, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage rates much. It is expected to show a reading of 55.0, which would be a small decline from last month’s final reading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my c losing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 10th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following a strong opening in stocks. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday’s sell-off with the Dow currently up 120 points and the Nasdaq up 26 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, but we will likely still see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be posted early tomorrow morning along with weekly unemployment figures. The Trade Balance report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $53.5 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

The Labor Department will post last week’s unemployment claims figures tomorrow also. They are expected to show that 525,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. While a larger number would be good news for bonds, the truth is that this data is not very influential to bonds and mortgage rates because it covers only a week’s worth of claims. But, with no highly important data scheduled for release, if it varies much from forecasts we may see bonds react enough to slightly impact mortgage rates.

Also, there is a 10-year Treasury Note auction tomorrow that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand for the sale, we may see bonds move higher and mortgage rates revise lower during afternoon trading. However, a lackluster interest could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

Friday morning brings us the release of a couple of important reports. The two most important are November’s Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. The sales report tracks consumer spending while the PPI gives us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Both can lead to large swings in the markets and mortgage pricing. The third report of the day will be December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, but it less important than the first two.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 8th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive despite early stock gains. The stock markets are starting the week off strong with the Dow up 276 points and the Nasdaq up 45 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .500 of a discount due to weakness late Friday.

This week is moderately busy in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release. There are four on the agenda but two of them are considered to be very important that can heavily influence the markets and mortgage pricing. In addition, there is a 10-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Since all of the data is scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, the most movement in rates will likely be the latter part of the week.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today, tomorrow or Wednesday. The first data is October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early Thursday morning. This report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $54.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

Overall, expect to see a pretty volatile week in the financial markets and mortgage pricing with the most movement Thursday and Friday. Friday’s Retail Sales and PPI reports can cause a great deal of movement in rates. Due to the expected volatility, I am holding the current lock recommendations. However, please maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 5th

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite some surprising figures in today’s release of November’s Employment report. The stock markets are negatively to the news with the Dow down 200 points and the Nasdaq down 25 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we should still see and improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

The Labor Department gave us today’s big news in November’s Employment report. They reported a drop in payrolls of 533,000 jobs, which was the largest monthly decline since December 1974. This brings the total number of jobs lost from the economy this year to 1.9 million jobs. Included in that figure was a downward revision of 80,000 jobs in November.

They also said the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, falling just short of forecasts of a 6.8% rate. It still was a 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate and further indicates that the labor market is not doing well at all. That can be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, it does not bode well for family income as workers are laid off, etc.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of important releases for the markets to digest. The most important data of the week comes during the latter part and can cause a great deal of movement in the markets and mortgage rates. We will get a first peek at November’s holiday sales to help gauge how holiday retail spending looked and a key consumer inflation reading. But look for more details in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 4th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of weaker than expected economic news and a lackluster open in stocks. The stock markets are currently mixed with the Dow down 15 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department said late this morning that October’s Factory Orders fell 5.1%. This was the third consecutive month of a decline in new orders and a larger drop than analysts had expected. Forecasts were calling for a drop of 4.5% in orders, meaning that the manufacturing sector was weaker than thought. While this is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, this data is no considered to be of high importance so its impact on trading and mortgage pricing was fairly minimal.

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department gave us last week’s weekly unemployment claim figures. They reported a drop in new claims, pegging the total at 509,000 compared to forecasts of 540,000 new claims. But, since this data tracks only a week’s worth of new claims, it is also not considered to be of high importance to the markets.

The Labor Department will also post November’s Employment report early tomorrow morning. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for another upward change in the unemployment rate to 6.8%, payrolls down approximately 325,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 6.8%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings portion.

Regardless of its results, look for tomorrow morning’s r eport to cause a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage rates, especially if they vary much from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 1st

Monday’s bond market has opened strong following weaker then expected economic news and a major sell-off in stocks. The stock markets are kicking the month off in the tank with the Dow down almost 400 points and the Nasdaq down 81 points. The bond market is currently up 30/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .500 of a discount point.

The week’s first piece of economic news was November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) late this morning. It showed a reading of 36.2 that was below forecasts and is the lowest reading since May 1982. That indicates that manufacturer sentiment was weaker than many had thought last month. Since that hints at slower manufacturing activity it is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The recent rally in bonds has put us in uncharted waters in terms of their yields. The benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note is currently yielding 2.82%, which is it lo west on record. It broke below 3.00% last week for the first time since the Notes were issued in 1962. While mortgage rates have not recently plummeted as quickly as the yield has, they have fallen quite a ways and show signs of continuing to slide. The downside to that is the possibility of rates spiking higher at any moment. Bond yields and mortgage rates can worsen much quicker than they usually improve. Therefore, we need to remain extremely cautious during this rally as we could see an entire week’s worth of gains erased in a single morning if any of the major influences on bonds turns negative.

The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes Wednesday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show a downward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around economic growth, such as inflation that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.1%.

The Fed Beige Book will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises.

Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but today will also likely be one of the more important. Tomorrow will probably be the lightest day of the week, assuming we don’t see another major sell-off or rally in stocks.

If I were considering financing/ refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 26th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are currently in positive ground after initially opening with losses. The Dow is now showing a 42 point gain while the Nasdaq is up 28 points. The bond market is currently up 19/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The first piece of data released this morning was October’s Durable Goods Orders that showed a drop of 6.2% in new orders and revised September’s orders lower than previously announced. Analysts were expecting to see a 2% drop in October’s orders, meaning that demand for big-ticket products was much weaker than thought. In fact, this was the largest monthly decline in approximately two years. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, because the slowing economic activity makes mortgage related bonds more attractive to investors.

The second was Oct ober’s Personal Income and Outlays data, which gave us mixed results. The bad news came in the income portion of the report that revealed a 0.3% rise in income compared to forecasts of a 0.1% increase. This means that consumers have more money available to spend than was expected. However, the good news was that they spent less than analysts had predicted. What was supposed to be a 0.7% decline in spending actually came in at a 1.0% drop. With consumer spending making up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the weaker than expected spending is taken as good news for bonds.

This month’s revision of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment was also favorable to bonds and mortgage rates with a reading of 55.3. This was much lower than the 58.0 that was expected, indicating that consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than analysts had thought. This means they are less likely to make large purchases in the near future.

The last report of the day was October’s New Home Sales figures that showed that sales of newly constructed homes fell to its lowest level in almost 18 years. While this is generally good news for bonds and mortgage rates, this data is not considered to be oh high importance to the markets, therefore, its impact ton today’s trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving Day holiday and will reopen Friday morning. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Friday, so I am expecting to see a very light and thinly traded day. The bond market will also close at 2:00 PM Friday, so look for little activity that day.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my clos ing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 25th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened sharply higher following more bailout news from the Fed that is being received as very favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. The stock markets are in negative territory with the Dow down 5 points and the Nasdaq down 18 points. The bond market is currently up 50/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .750 of a discount point over yesterday’s rates.

There were two important pieces of economic data released this morning, giving us mixed results. The first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at ?0.5%, which was close to latest forecasts. This means that economic activity during the 3rd quarter was weaker than analysts had predicted last month but close to their latest projections. Accordingly, this data has not had much of an impact on this morning’s mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was also released this morning, showing a reading of 44.9. This was much higher than the 39.5 reading that was expected, indicating that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising confidence usually means consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future.

Today’s news from the Fed amounts to a more direct support of the mortgage market than the previous moves. In short, the Fed is going to pump $600 billion directly into mortgage lending that should significantly increase cash flow to make new loans to homeowners and homebuyers. The previous announcements were directed more at shoring up the banking side of financial system and somewhat ignored the mortgage side. Today’s news is being considered great for future mortgage activity, and therefore, hopefully will help stabilize home prices.

There are four important reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items. It is expected to show a 2.5% drop in new orders. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show that income rose 0.1% and that spending fell 0.7%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting to see little change to the preliminary reading of 57.9. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading, I don’ t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates tomorrow.

The fourth is October’s New Home Sales, but I don’t expect it to have any impact on the bond or mortgage markets. Keep in mind that the bond market will close early tomorrow ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, so we may see additional volatility as traders protect themselves over the long weekend. Many traders will by keeping a skeleton staff Friday, meaning tomorrow is really the last relevant trading day until Monday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 24th

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of an abundance of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are seven reports on the calendar with several being considered to be of high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates. With multiple moderately or highly important reports due out more than one day this week, we will likely see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates day to day.

October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted late this morning. This report, along with Wednesday’s New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results.

The first important data comes early tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary r eading of -0.3%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately -0.6%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Late tomorrow morning, November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted. The Conference Board will release the CCI for the month of November at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a small increase from last month’s 38.0 reading to somewhere around 39.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

There are four importan t reports scheduled to be posted Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items. It is expected to show a 2.5% drop in new orders. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show that income rose 0.1% and that spending fell 0.7%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late Wednesday morning. Analysts are expecting to see little change to the preliminary reading of 57.9. Unless we see a significant variance from the fore casted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market. Today or Friday will be the least important day of the week and either Tuesday or Wednesday will be the most important. The bond market will close early Wednesday and remain closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. I still expect to see plenty of movement in rates the remaining days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financi ng a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Nov. 21st

Friday’s bond market has opened sharply lower, giving back much of its gains from the past two days. The stock markets are showing gains but no major rebound from yesterday’s beating. The Dow is currently up 35 points after falling 444 points yesterday while the Nasdaq has gained 8 points. The bond market is not having a good day, currently down 39/32, as investors shift funds back out of bonds. This will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

Today’s losses effectively erase yesterday’s rally that pushed yields on the major Treasury bonds and Notes to their lowest levels since 1962. As is often the case, the funds will move out of bonds just as quickly, if not faster as they flowed in. The result usually is a spike in mortgage pricing as investors move away from the safety appeal that led to funds being moved into bonds earlier this week.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for rel ease today. I would not be surprised to see further volatility in the stock and bond markets as the day progresses. This may affect mortgage rates this afternoon if bonds recover some of their losses or fall much further form their current levels.

Next week is pretty busy in terms of economic releases scheduled to be posted but also is a holiday shortened week. Monday brings us the release of October’s Existing Home Sales data that will give us a measurement of housing sector strength. It is expected to show a decline in home resales last month. But look for more details on next week’s data and events in Sunday’s weekly preview of the upcoming week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… T his is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 20th

Thursday’s bond market has opened up sharply as it continues yesterday’s late rally that came as a result of the Fed FOMC minutes that were released during afternoon trading. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 41 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 33/32, but since mortgage bonds have not rallied nearly as much as Treasury Bonds, the improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates is limited to approximately .250 of a discount point.

Yesterday’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting did bring us some surprises and led to the selling in stocks and shifting of funds into bonds. The minutes revealed that several Fed members are concerned about deflation (instead of inflation) where prices actually deflate rather than rise. That creates a very favorable environment for bonds and other long-term securities because their future fixed interest payments are worth more down the road. The minutes also showed the Fe d significantly lowered its outlook on economic growth and employment activity, raising more concern that the economy has more room to shrink before stabilizing. This also makes bonds more attractive to investors because slowing economic activity usually means weaker corporate profits that drive stock prices lower.

The Labor Department gave us last week’s unemployment figures this morning, saying that new claims for benefits rose from 515,000 to 542,000 when they were expected to drop to 503,000. While this is only a week’s worth of claims, it does however further support the theory that the employment sector is still weakening quickly. Another favorable note for bonds.

October’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was posted by the Conference Board late this morning, showing a decline of 0.8%.and lowering September’s reading by 0.2%. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.6% drop, meaning that they are expecting economic activity to slow over the next th ree to six months at a quicker pace than many had thought.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, but I would not be surprised to see more volatility in the markets. Mortgage rates have not improved nearly as much as Treasury bonds have, but I am expecting to see the improvements in rates slowly continue. Accordingly, I am holding the float recommendations for the time being.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 16th

This week brings us the release of five monthly reports for the markets to digest along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The first report scheduled for release this week is October’s Industrial Production tomorrow morning. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to reveal a 0.1% decline in output. Stronger levels of production would be considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

We will get the first of this week’s two key inflation readings early Tuesday morning when October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is posted. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, in dicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 1.5% in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core reading.

Wednesday’s only data is October’s Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeably impact on mortgage rates. I don’t expect this month’s version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts forecast. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes.

Also Wednesday is the afternoon release of the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pr essures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Wednesday afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rate cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET Thursday morning. This index is similar to Tuesday’s PPI, except it measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. The overall portion is expected to show a drop of 0.8% while the core data is expected to rise 0.2%.

Overall, look for Tuesday or Thursday to be the most important day of the week with the PPI and CPI reports scheduled for release those days. They are the two most important releases of the week and can individually lead to large swings in the markets and mortgage rates. The FOMC minutes may also heavily influence trading and deserve to be watched also. I think this will be a fa irly active week for mortgage rates, so please maintain regular contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 13th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, erasing part of yesterday’s late rally that came as a result of strong stock losses. The stock markets have opened in negative ground, continuing yesterday’s selling. The Dow is currently down 90 points while the Nasdaq has lost 27 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will still likely see a small improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

This morning’s first piece of news was the release of September’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It gave us the size of the U.S. Trade Deficit, showing a $56.5 billion deficit. That was a little smaller than forecasts of $57.0 billion, but this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets and has had little impact on this morning’s trading or mortgage pricing.

The other news released this morning was weekly unemployment figur es from the Labor Department. They reported that new claims for benefits jumped to 516,000 last week, exceeding forecasts of 479,000. The previous week’s figures were revised to 484,000, meaning analysts were expecting to see a small decline in claims when we actually saw a sizable jump. While this data is not considered to be of high importance because it tracks only a week’s worth of filings, it can influence trading and rates when it varies from forecasts such as today’s variance.

There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning with one of them considered to be very important to the markets. October’s Retail Sales report is the first and the highly important one because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. If this report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in sales of approximately 2.1%.

The second report comes late tomorrow morning when November’s preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 57.0, down from October’s final reading of 57.6.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 12th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as investors shift funds from stocks into bonds. This has pushed the stock indexes significantly lower again with the Dow down 312 points and the Nasdaq down 46 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point over Monday’s rates. The bond market was closed yesterday in observance of the Veteran’s Day holiday.

There is no relevant data being released today, but we will get the results of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. These results can influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates this afternoon. If the sale was met with a strong demand from investors, bonds will likely rally and mortgage rates should fall. However, a lackluster interest could lead to weakness in bonds and higher mortgage rates.

The first economic data of the week is September’s Goods and Service s Trade Balance report Thursday morning. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities’ proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor’s domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market compared to previous weeks unless something totally unexpected transpires. The two Treasury auctions that are of the most interest are today’s and Thursday’s since they can impact mortgage rates the most. But there is only one important report being posted and that doesn’t come until Friday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 11th

TUESDAY’S UPDATE:

The bond market is closed today in observance of the Veterans Day holiday and will reopen tomorrow morning. The stock markets are trading today but in negative territory. The Dow is currently down 240 points while the Nasdaq has lost 42 points. Some lenders may post rates today, but will likely use yesterday’s afternoon rates.

This week brings us the release of only three relevant economic reports with only one of them being considered highly important. There is no relevant news scheduled for release tomorrow except for the results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET and can influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. If the sale was met with a strong demand from investors, bonds will likely rally and mortgage rates should fall. However, a lackluster interest could lead to weakness and higher mortgage rates.

The first economic data of the week is September’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report Thursday morning. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities’ proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor’s domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market compared to previous weeks unless something totally unexpected transpires. The two Treasury auctions that are of the most interest are Wednesday’s and Thursday’s since they can impact mortgage rates the most. But there is only one important report being posted and that doesn’t come until Friday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my cl osing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 9th

This week brings us the release of only three relevant economic reports with only one of them being considered highly important. It is a holiday shortened week with the bond market closing early Monday and remaining closed Tuesday in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

The first data of the week is September’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report Thursday morning. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities’ proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor’s domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

There are two reports scheduled for release Friday. October’s Retail Sales report is the first. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. If this report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in sales of approximately 1.2%.

The last of the week’s three reports comes late Friday morning when November’s preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 57.0, down from October’s final reading of 57.6.

There are 10-year Note and 30-year Bond auctions this week, Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Strong or very weak results from these sales could affect the momentum in the bond market and lead to afternoon changes in mortgage rates. It i s common to see pressure in bonds ahead of these sales, but as long as interest from investors is decent we should see those pre-sale losses recovered during afternoon trading of the sale days.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market compared to previous weeks unless something totally unexpected transpires. As long as the stock markets remain fairly calm, I am expecting to see mortgage rates follow suit.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Nov. 7th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of a much weaker than expected Employment report. The stock markets are showing gains after a couple of sizable down days this week. The Dow is currently up 84 points while the Nasdaq has gained 17 points. The bond market is currently down 19/32, but we should still see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount due to a strong rally in bonds late yesterday. This morning’s losses are taking back some of yesterday’s late gains, but mortgage rates are still lower than yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us some surprising readings this morning, saying that the U.S. unemployment rate jumped from 6.1% in September to 6.5% in October. They were expected to show a 6.3% unemployment rate. This was the highest rate of unemployment since March 1994.

The number of payrolls added or lost during the month also opened some eye s. The economy lost 240,000 jobs last month, which was worse than the 200,000 that was forecasted. But equally as bad was a large revision to September’s payrolls. What was previously announced as a loss of 159,000 jobs in September is now being estimated at 284,000. This was the 10th consecutive monthly drop in payrolls and brings the yearly total to 1.2 million jobs lost and the first time we have seen 1 million jobs lost since 2001.

Today’s report gives us little to be optimistic about in regards to the employment sector. It is becoming more and more clear to many analysts that the economy is actually in a recession despite the lack of an official announcement or other benchmark indicators. What is equally concerning is that many think the problems are going to get worse before better. This could be good news for bonds and mortgage shoppers, but the crazy volatility we have seen in the markets recently makes it very difficult to follow historical patter ns or make realistic predictions. There is little doubt that we will see more volatility in the coming weeks.

Next week is light in terms of the number of relevant economic reports scheduled for release. We will get some important data late next week, but the first part of the week there is nothing scheduled for release to be concerned with. This make sit very likely that the stock markets will be the biggest influence on bonds and mortgage rates the first couple of days of the week. But look for more details on next week’s event sin Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion an d cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite another round of stock losses and favorable economic news. The stock markets are continuing yesterday’s late selling that drove the Dow down 486 points and the Nasdaq down 98 points. The Dow has currently lost another 174 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 41 points. The bond market has fluctuated this morning between positive and negative ground, but currently stands down 11/32. This should mean that this morning’s mortgage rates will be approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s rates.

This morning’s release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading revealed a larger than expected increase of 1.1% in employee output. This was slightly higher than forecasts, but is still considered to be good news for bonds because high levels if productivity allows the economy to grow without inflationary pressures rising.

The second piece of data this morning was last we ek’s unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They reported that 481,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a drop from the previous week but higher than expected. This news isn’t the cause of this morning’s stock weakness, but today’s data was watched more closely due to the importance of tomorrow’s monthly report.

October’s Employment report will be released early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the im mediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are well into negative ground this morning with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but due significant strength in bonds late yesterday, we will likely see an improvement of approximately .500 – .625 in today’s mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release today. Tomorrow’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Lab or Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

Friday’s Employment report is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower. However, stronger than forecasted readings could give back this morning’s improvements to rates since the markets are expecting weak numbers.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the immediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 4th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite sizable stock gains during early trading. The stock markets are strong this morning with the Dow up 262 points and the Nasdaq up 42 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s only relevant data came from the Commerce Department who posted September’s Factory Orders report. It showed a decline of 2.5% that was an improvement from August’s 4/3% drop, but was also much weaker than the 0.8% decline that was expected. This means that new orders at U.S. factories fell much more than thought and indicates a rapidly slowing manufacturing sector. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release tomorrow. Thursday’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivi ty during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

If I were considering financing/refinanci ng a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 29th

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of a half-point rate cut by the Fed in an effort to stimulate economic activity. The move was widely expected by market participants, but has still boosted stocks and hurt bonds. The Dow is currently up 218 points while the Nasdaq has gained 44 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this afternoon’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The post-meeting statement indicated that the Fed was still concerned about the economy and was expecting further weakness. This led to speculation that the Fed may lower short-term rates again in the future despite the fact that the Federal Funds rate is now at a record low of 1.00%. It has not been this low since June 2003 to June 2004. The fact that it appears the Fed has conceded more measures may be needed and is ready to act has helped drive stock prices higher during afternoon trading. This has made bonds less attractive to investors and is the reason we likely will see upward revisions to mortgage rates this afternoon.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that Durable Goods Orders for September rose 0.8% when they were expected to fall 1.0%. This means that manufacturing activity was stronger than expected, which is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and therefore is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Tomorrow’s release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for a decline of approximately 0. 5% in the GDP. If this report shows a larger decline, I am expecting to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates to fall tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 29th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors await today’s FOMC meeting adjournment. The stock markets were trading higher earlier but are now in negative territory after yesterday’s huge rally. The Dow is currently down 32 points while the Nasdaq is down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates slightly higher.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that Durable Goods Orders for September rose 0.8% when they were expected to fall 1.0%. This means that manufacturing activity was stronger than expected, which is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, since the markets are directing their attention to today’s FOMC results, the higher than expected orders has not had much of an impact on this morning’s mortgage rates.

The FOMC meeting began yesterday and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET today. There is now a pretty large consensus that the Fed w ill lower key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but what is being debated is the size of the cut. Some analysts are calling for a .750 cut while the majority think a half-point reduction is coming. This makes the post meeting statement even more important than usual as traders will try to figure out if the Fed thinks this is the last cut or if they are prepared to make another in the future.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the Fed move and the post-meeting statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guarant eed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.