Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Sep. 24th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Sep. 24th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory in what hopefully is a sign of stabilization. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 40 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely see this morning’s mortgage rates move higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

Today’s only economic news was the release of August’s Existing Home Sales report. The National Association of Realtors reported that home resales in the U.S. fell more than expected last month. This indicates that the housing sector has still not bottomed out. That is good news for bonds because a soft housing sector will likely slow economic activity and ease inflation concerns.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is speaking to a Joint Economic Committee of Congress today, where he has basically warned that the Fed bailout program needs to be enacted quickly to stabilize the financial system. His words have led to some fluctuation in the markets this morning, but don’t seem to be of significant surprise to traders. Accordingly, I don’t believe we will see any further changes to mortgage rates as a result.

August’s Durable Goods Orders will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a drop in orders in the neighborhood of 1.3%. A larger decline could help bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop tomorrow. However, a smaller than expected decrease would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector and would likely help push mortgage rates higher.

Also tomorrow morning will be the release of August’s New Home Sales. It is expected to show that sales of new homes rose slightly in August. As with today’s Existing Home Sales data, this report will likely not have a significant impact on m ortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, Chairman Bernanke, closing, congress today, durable goods orders, existing home sales, existing home sales data, fed bailout, fed chairman bernanke, inflation concerns, joint economic committee, lock, national association of realtors, today, U.S.

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Sep. 23rd

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Sep. 23rd

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly as the markets try to stabilize. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 36 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release again today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five economic reports for the markets to digest. Three of them are considered to be of low importance and likely will have little impact on mortgage rates. With none of the data being released until Wednesday, we will likely see the most activity in rates the latter part of the week.

The first piece of data comes tomorrow morning with the release of August’s Existing Home Sales report. The National Association of Realtors posts this data, giving us an indication of housing sector strength by tracking home resales in the U.S. It is expected to show a decline from July’s sales, however, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market.

August’s Durable Goods Orders will be posted early Thursday morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a drop in orders in the neighborhood of 1.3%. A larger decline could help bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop Thursday. However, a smaller than expected decrease would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector and would likely help push mortgage rates higher.

Also Thursday morning will be the release of August’s New Home Sales. It is expected to show that sales of new homes rose slightly in August. As with Wednesday’s Existing Home Sales data, this report will likely not have a significant impact on mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers

Tags: association of realtors, big ticket items, bond, closing, durable goods orders, economic reports, existing home sales, existing home sales data, home resales, lock, national association of realtors, refinancing a home, Release, U.S., U.S. It

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Sep. 22nd

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Sep. 22nd

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite another round of stock market losses. The major stock indexes are kicking the week off with sizable losses. The Dow is currently down 160 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 30 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five economic reports for the markets to digest. Three of them are considered to be of low importance and likely will have little impact on mortgage rates. With none of the data being released until Wednesday, we will likely see the most activity in rates the latter part of the week.

The first piece of data comes Wednesday morning with the release of August’s Existing Home Sales report. The National Association of Realtors posts this data, giving us an indi cation of housing sector strength by tracking home resales in the U.S. It is expected to show a decline from July’s sales, however, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market.

August’s Durable Goods Orders will be posted early Thursday morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a drop in orders in the neighborhood of 1.3%. A larger decline could help bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop Thursday. However, a smaller than expected decrease would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector and would likely help push mortgage rates higher.

Also Thursday morning will be the release of August’s New Home Sales. It is expected to show that sales of new homes rose slightly in August. As with Wednesday’s Existing Home Sales data, this report will likely not have a significant impact on mortgage ra tes.

The first of Friday’s two releases is the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don’t see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight increase from the previous estimate of a 3.3% annual rate.

The final report of the week is Friday’s release of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This is the revised reading for September. The preliminary reading that was released earlier this month revealed a 73.1 reading. Analysts are expecting to see a downward revision, meaning confidence was not as higher as previously thought. A lower than expected reading should help improve mortgage rates Friday morning.

Overall, this will likely be a fairly active week for mortgage rates. The most important day will either be today or Thursday. We may see last week’s market volatility continue today and Thursday’s data is the most important of the week. Until the markets appear to have stabilized, I am holding the lock recommendations as it makes it difficult to predict what mortgage rates will do when we see such wild swings.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, bond, durable goods orders, existing home sales, existing home sales data, home resales, lock, major stock indexes, national association of realtors, negative territory, Release, stock market losses, Thursday, U.S., U.S. It, week

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 07/24/2008 11:15:00 AM EST

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following sizable stock losses and weaker than expected economic news. The Dow is down 110 points and the Nasdaq has lost 16 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point. Neither of today’s economic releases ere considered to be high importance to the markets unfortunately, or we may have seen more of an improvement to mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors said that home resales in the U.S. fell 2.6% last month. This was a larger drop than was forecasted. In addition, the Labor Department reported that 406,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a much larger increase than was expected and again crosses the important 400,000 benchmark. Yesterday afternoon’s Beige Book release showed that economic activity slowed in most regions and that infla tion continued to rise. The slowing economic activity is good news for bonds, but the inflationary pressures are a threat to bonds and could drive prices lower and mortgage rates higher if they continue to rise. Overall, it didn’t reveal any significant surprises. The results of today’s 5-year Treasury Note auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the auction was met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading and could lead to lower mortgage rates. However, if the sale was met with a poor demand, we could see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise revise higher. Tomorrow morning brings us the release of two of the week’s most important reports. The first will come from the Commerce Department when they will post June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Current forecasts are currently calling for a decline of 0.3% after showing little change in new orders during May. This data gives us an indication of manu facturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. These are products that are expected to last at least three years. A stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning. If it reveals a larger than expected drop, mortgage rates should improve tomorrow. Also being released tomorrow is the final revision to July’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. Unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate of 56.6, I think the markets will probably shrug this news off. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot b e guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, beige book, bond, bond prices, closing, durable goods orders, facturing, Float, home resales, lower mortgage, national association of realtors, stock losses, tomorrow, U.S., unemployment benefits

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 05/23/2008 12:20:00 PM EST

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as stocks react negatively to rising oil prices. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 111 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .1250 – .250 of a discount point.

The National Association of Realtors gave us today’s only semi-relevant economic news with the release of April’s Existing Home Sales report. It revealed a decline in sales, but not as much of a drop as expected. However, the data has not influenced bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates this morning.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM today ahead of Monday’s Memorial Day Holiday and will remain closed until Tuesday morning. The stock markets will also be closed Monday. I don’t think that this will have an impact on this afternoon’s mortgage rates.

Next week brings us the releas e of several pieces of important economic data. There are relevant reports scheduled for release each of the four business days, so we will likely see some volatility in rates. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, bond, bond market, bond trading, closing, existing home sales, existing home sales report, national association of realtors, refinancing a home, Release, relevant reports, rising oil prices, stock, stock markets, today

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 05/22/2008 11:14:00 AM EST

Thursday’s bond market has opened down sharply as concerns about inflation take their toll. The stock markets are showing moderate gains with the Dow up 37 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently down 27/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us today’s only economic reading with the release of weekly unemployment figures. They reported that 365,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was down from the previous week and lower than the 372,000 that were expected. However, this data is not considered to be of high importance and had a minimal impact on today’s bond trading or mortgage rates.

Yesterday’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting led to some volatility in the markets late yesterday and again this morning. The minutes revealed that the vote for the last rate cut was close and that ther e are obvious concerns not only about economic growth and activity but also about inflation. This has made long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors because inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. Traders then need to sell them at a discount to offset that loss in order for an investor to purchase it. The result is bond prices falling while yields and mortgage rates rise.

The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report tomorrow morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales between March and April.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing w as taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, bond, bond trading, closing, existing home sales, existing home sales report, fomc meeting, moderate gains, national association of realtors, refinancing a home, report tomorrow, today, U.S., unemployment figures

Weekly Rate Lock Recommendation – 05/18/2008 10:37:00 AM EST

This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic news in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Only one of those three can be considered of high importance to the markets and mortgage rates, so we may see a fairly calm week for mortgage rates.

The first data comes tomorrow morning with the release of April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show no change from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to remain flat during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while an increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher tomorrow.

The second report of the week April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) Tuesday morning, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.4%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is expected to rise 0.2%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release Wednesday, but we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy. The goal is to form a guess about what the Fed’s next move will be. The minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading.

The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report Friday morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for decline in sales between March and April.

Overall, it may be an interesting week for mortgage rates. We could see little movement in rates if the stock markets remain calm and the week’s data doesn’t reveal any major surprises. Tuesday’s PPI report is the single most important data of the week, but the FOMC minutes may also lead to some volatility in the markets. Also worth noting is an early close in the bond market Friday afternoon ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, closing, existing home sales, existing home sales report, Float, fomc meeting, inflation concerns, leading economic indicators, LEI, mortgage shoppers, national association of realtors, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, Release, report, U.S., week

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 04/21/2008 12:09:00 PM EST

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite early stock losses. The Dow has started the week with a 60 point loss while the Nasdaq has fallen 5 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 – .500 of a discount due to strength in bonds late Friday.

This week is fairly light in terms of economic news scheduled for release. There are four reports scheduled, but only one of them is likely to cause much movement in mortgage rates. Accordingly, there is a fairly decent possibility of seeing a fairly calm week in the mortgage market.

The week’s first piece of data is one of the least important of all four. The National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers late tomorrow morning, which are expected to show a drop from February. A similar report to this one and actually the week’s least important data- March ‘s New Home Sales will be released Thursday morning. Both of these releases give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but unless they vary greatly from analysts forecasts, I don’t think they will cause much movement in mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Thursday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods report being posted and the Treasury auction. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the major stock indexes continue to rally, bonds will likely suffer and mortgage will move higher. If stocks pull back, we could see mortgage rates move lower this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… T his is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Tags: association of realtors, bond, closing, existing homes sales, Float, major stock indexes, mortgage credit, mortgage market, national association of realtors, negative territory, sales numbers, stock, stock losses, treasury auction, week

Weekly Rate Lock Recommendation – 04/20/2008 10:13:00 PM EST

This week is fairly light in terms of economic news scheduled for release. There are four reports scheduled, but only one of them is likely to cause much movement in mortgage rates. Accordingly, there is a fairly decent possibility of seeing a fairly calm week in the mortgage market.

The week’s first piece of data is one of the least important of all four. The National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers Tuesday morning, which are expected to show a drop from February. A similar report to this one and actually the week’s least important data- March’s New Home Sales will be released Thursday morning. Both of these releases give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but unless they vary greatly from analysts forecasts, I don’t think they will cause much movement in mortgage rates.

March’s Durable Goods Orders will be posted early Thursday morning. This report gives us an indicatio n of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a small increase in orders. A smaller than expected increase could help boost bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop Thursday morning. However, a stronger than expected reading would indicate that the manufacturing sector is gaining strength quicker than many had thought. This would be negative news and would probably help drive mortgage rates higher.

Also Thursday is a 5-year Treasury Note auction. These sales sometimes bring volatility to the bond market ahead of the actual sales as investors prepare for them. However, that weakness is usually only temporary and will correct itself after the sale is complete as long as it was met with a decent demand from investors. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand, bond prices should rise during afternoon trading. But, lackluster interest could lead to weakness and upward revisions to mortgage rates.

The last important data of the week is the University of Michigan’s update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment. I don’t expect it to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts Current forecasts are calling for an upward revision to 64.2.

Overall, look for Thursday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods report being posted and the Treasury auction. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the major stock indexes continue to rally, bonds will likely suffer and mortgage will move higher. If stocks pull back, we could see mortgage rates move lower this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Tags: association of realtors, closing, durable goods orders, existing homes sales, Float, lackluster interest, mortgage credit, mortgage market, mortgage rates, national association of realtors, report, Thursday, tuesday morning, U.S., upward revisions, week