Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Mar. 4th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Mar. 4th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened well into negative territory following a strong opening in stocks. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 150 points and the Nasdaq up 32 points. The bond market is currently down 28/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

There were no important economic reports scheduled for release this morning. The Fed will release its Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET today. This report details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading tomorrow. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

There are two important reports scheduled for release tomorrow m orning. The first is the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary reading posted last month showed a 3.2% increase in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see a sizable downward revision to the initial reading. It is expected to be cut to a 1.6% increase in output, meaning workers were not as productive as previously thought during the quarter. The Unit Labor Costs reading is expected to be revised higher to 3.4%. Employee productivity and costs are watched fairy closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns, while increases in employee costs do raise inflation fears.

January’s Factory Orders will be posted late tomorrow morning, which will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week’s Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in new orders of approximately 2.1%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for the bond market and could lead to an improvement in mortgage rates.

We also will get weekly unemployment numbers from the Labor Department, but I am not expecting them to heavily influence bond trading or mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: beige book, bond, closing, downward revision, employee productivity, Float, fomc meetings, inflation concerns, inflation fears, initial reading, negative territory, productivity index, release tomorrow, tomorrow

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are well into negative ground this morning with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but due significant strength in bonds late yesterday, we will likely see an improvement of approximately .500 – .625 in today’s mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release today. Tomorrow’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Lab or Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

Friday’s Employment report is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower. However, stronger than forecasted readings could give back this morning’s improvements to rates since the markets are expecting weak numbers.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the immediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, bond, bond market, closing, employment report, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, Productivity, productivity index, quarter productivity, rate, report, unemployment figures, unemployment rate, week, worker productivity

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 4th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 4th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite sizable stock gains during early trading. The stock markets are strong this morning with the Dow up 262 points and the Nasdaq up 42 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today’s only relevant data came from the Commerce Department who posted September’s Factory Orders report. It showed a decline of 2.5% that was an improvement from August’s 4/3% drop, but was also much weaker than the 0.8% decline that was expected. This means that new orders at U.S. factories fell much more than thought and indicates a rapidly slowing manufacturing sector. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release tomorrow. Thursday’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivi ty during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

If I were considering financing/refinanci ng a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 3rd quarter, bond, bond market, closing, Float, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, productivity index, quarter productivity, Release, release tomorrow, report, stock gains, stock markets, tomorrow, U.S., unemployment figures

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 3rd

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 3rd

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are posting gains with the Dow up 42 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but we may still see slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness late Friday.

The week’s first report came late this morning from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). They posted their Manufacturing Index for October, showing a reading of 38.9 that was well below forecasts and a 26-year low. The index measures manufacturer sentiment and this morning’s release indicated sentiment is softening. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing manufacturing activity usually means a weakening economy and eases inflation concerns.

Tomorrow’s only relevant news is September’s Factory Orders report. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes o rders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show 0.8% decline in orders from August’s level. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a smaller than expected drop is bad news.

There is no important data scheduled for release Wednesday. Thursday’s report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The last report of the week is the most important. Friday brings us the release of one of the most important monthly reports- the Employment report. The Labor Department will post October’s employment stats early Friday morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a 0.2% rise in unemployment to bring the national rate to 6.3%, a drop in payrolls of approximately 200,000 and a 0.2% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should rally bonds and lead to improvements in mortgage rates, especially if the stock markets react poorly to the news.

Overall, I am expecting to see a moderately active week in mortgage pricing. The key to the week will be Friday’s employment numbers, but any significant swings in the stock markets may also influence whether mortgage rates close the week higher or lower than this morning’s levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, durable goods orders, employment stats, index measures, inflation concerns, inflationary pressures, institute for supply management, Productivity, productivity index, quarter productivity, report, week, worker productivity