Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Mar. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Mar. 5th

Thursday’s bond market has opened strong following early stock weakness. The major stock indexes are showing significant losses after yesterday’s rally. The Dow is currently down 230 points while the Nasdaq is down 42 points. The bond market is currently up 34/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of only .125 – .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s economic news gave us results that were not favorable to bonds and mortgage rates. The Productivity revision revealed a much lower level of worker output than was expected. Today’s report showed a decline in output of 0.4% compared to the increase of 1.0% that was forecasted and the 3.2% gain that was estimated last month. It also showed a significant upward revision to the Unit Labor Costs portion of the report that raises wage inflation concerns. Even though this report is of medium importance to the markets, the revised readings are somewhat surprising.

The second report of the morning wasn’t much better either. The Commerce Department reported that Factory Orders fell 1.9% in January. This was stronger than analysts’ revised forecasts of a 3.5% decline, but today’s reports also revised December’s orders lower by 1.0%. That seemed to have offset the higher than expected reading, but this report is also considered to be of medium importance so its impact has been relatively minimal.

The Labor Department reported that 639,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was lower than expected and a decline from the previous week’s total.

Tomorrow morning brings us February’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a large drop in pa yrolls and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate to 7.9% and approximately 650,000 jobs lost during the month.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average hourly earnings, bond, bond market, closing, decline, employment report, inflation concerns, labor department, major stock indexes, mortgage rates, rate, report, unemployment rate, upward revision, wage inflation

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Mar. 1st

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Mar. 1st

This week brings us the release of six economic reports to be concerned with. Two of the reports are considered to be very important, but nearly all of the week’s releases have the potential to affect mortgage rates. With reports being posted each day except Tuesday, we will likely see a fairly active week in mortgage rates.

The week’s first data comes tomorrow morning with the release of two relevant reports. The first is January’s Personal Income ad Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET, which gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts call for a decline in income of 0.2% while spending is expected to rise 0.42%. A larger than expected increase in spending would be bad news for the bond market and could drive mortgage rates higher. Weaker than forecasted numbers should help push mortgage rates slightly lower tomorrow.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manuf acturing index for February late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a pretty large impact on the financial and mortgage markets if it varies from forecasts. It is expected to show a decline from January’s 35.6 to 34.0 last month. This is important because a reading below 50.0 is a recession indicator, meaning that more surveyed manufacturers felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. If we see a weaker than expected reading, the bond market could rally. However, a higher than forecasted reading could lead to major selling in bonds, causing mortgage rates to rise.

The Fed Beige Book is the next report scheduled for release and it will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading Wednesday. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

There two reports scheduled for release Thursday morning. The first is the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary reading posted last month showed an annual rate of 3.2% increase in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see a sizable downward revision to the initial reading. It is expected to be cut to a 1.6% increase in output, meaning workers were not as productive as previously thought during the quarter. Employee productivity is watched fairy closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns.

January’s Factory Orders will be posted late Thursday morning, which will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week’s Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in new orders of approximately 2.1%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for the bond market and could lead to an improvement in mortgage rates.

The biggest news of the week comes Friday morning when one of the single most important monthly reports we see will be posted. The Labor Department will release February’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a large drop in payrolls and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate to 7.9% and approximately 615,000 jobs lost during the month.

Overall, look for a fairly active week for mortgage rates. I suspect there will be some optimism leading up to Friday’s Employment report, which is of concern to me. I believe the market is expecting to see very weak numbers Friday morning and has already built that into current pricing. The problem is that if it meets forecasts, or is even slightly stronger than expected, we could see bonds drop and mortgage rates rise. Because of this, I may be extending the lock recommendation to longer periods before Friday’s data. Friday is undoubtedly the biggest day of the week, but tomorrow may also bring noticeable movement in mortgage rates. Please be careful this week if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if m y closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, economic reports, fed beige book, first data, fomc meetings, index measures, institute for supply management, mortgage markets, mortgage rates, rate, relevant reports, report, spending habits, week

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Feb. 15th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Feb. 15th

There are five economic reports worth watching this week that are likely to affect mortgage rates in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The financial markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the President’s Day Holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. You may find some lenders to be open for business tomorrow, but I would not expect to see new rates issued until Tuesday.

Wednesday brings us three releases, including the week’s least important of the five economic reports. January’s Housing Starts will be posted early Wednesday morning, giving us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It usually does not affect rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in starts of new housing.

January’s Industrial Production data will be released mid-morning Wednesday. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking ou tput at U.S. factories. Mines and utilities and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Analysts are expecting to see 1.4% decline in production from December to January. A larger than expected decline in output would be good news and should push bond prices higher, lowering mortgage rates Wednesday.

The minutes from last FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday afternoon. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move regarding monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. However, with little likelihood of the Fed making a change to key short-term rates anytime soon, these minutes will likely not heavily influence trading or lead to a change in mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

The Labor Department will post their Producer Price Index (PPI) for January early Thursday morning. It measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. It is expected to show small increases in both readings, indicating that inflation is not a threat. Good news for bonds would be a decline in both readings, particularly the core data.

Also Thursday morning will be the release of the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for January. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show no change, meaning that economic activity may be flat in the near future. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The Labor Department will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET Friday, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer le vel of the economy. With exception to maybe the Employment report, the CPI is the most important report that we see each month. Its results can have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall.

Overall, the most important day of the week will likely be Friday with the CPI being released, but Wednesday and Thursday may also be active days for mortgage rates. Tuesday’s opening will also be interesting with it being the first trading day since the approval of the President’s economic stimulus package. In other words, be prepared for an active week in the markets and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking pla ce within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond prices, business tomorrow, closing, decline, economic reports, fomc meeting, inflationary pressures, LEI, lock, moderate impact, mortgage credit, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, report, U.S., Wednesday, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Feb. 6th

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Feb. 6th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of a fairly concerning Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the news with the Dow up 180 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 7.6% last month. The 0.4% increase was more than expected and indicates that the employment sector is weakening at a faster pace than many had thought. While this is favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates, it gives little hope for the American worker.

The report also showed a larger than expected loss of jobs during the month. The 598,000 loss was the worst since December 1974 and brings the last three month total to 1.8 million. That’s the worst three month performance since the end of World War II and raises concerns about the rest of 2009. It is becoming more likely that we may set some new records this year that are not exactly worth bragging about.

The average earnings portion of the report didn’t reveal many surprises at an increase of 0.3%. However, despite this morning’s bond favorable data, stocks are reaping the benefits during morning trading. The weaker than expected results in the employment report did not surprise me, but the reaction in bonds was disappointing.

Next is pretty light in terms of economic releases, but it does bring us the release of one very important report. There are no relevant reports scheduled for release Monday. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, bond, bond market, closing, economic releases, employment report, employment sector, lock, negative territory, rate, refinancing a home, Release, relevant reports, report, U.S., unemployment rate, world war ii

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Feb. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Feb. 5th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of favorable economic reports. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 44 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Both of this morning’s important releases gave us favorable results. Even weekly unemployment numbers that are not considered highly important came in weaker than expected. The Labor Department said that 626,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was the largest weekly filing since October 1982 and helps support the theory that tomorrow’s monthly employment report will show bleak numbers.

The two more important reports were December’s Factory Orders and 4th Quarter Productivity numbers. The factory orders data showed a larger than expected drop of 3.9% in new orders. This was the fifth consecutive mo nthly decline in orders, which is a first for the report. Analysts were expecting to see a decline of 3.0%, meaning manufacturing activity is slower than thought. In addition, today’s report also revised November’s decline in orders from 4.6% to 6.5% that is now the largest monthly decline since July 2000.

The 4th Quarter Productivity and Costs data was the third piece of news posted this morning. It showed a surprising jump of 3.2% in worker output. This was more than double what analysts had expected, meaning workers were more productive in each hour worked last quarter. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report. It will give us the unemployment rate, number of jobs lost or added to the economy last month and average hourly earnings. Analysts are expecting it to show that the unemployment rate jumped 0.3% to 7.5% last month while 500,000 jobs were lost. The average earnings reading is expected to show that earnings rose 0.3%. A higher unemployment rate and larger job loss would be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. If we do get favorable results, I would expect to see bonds rally and mortgage rates fall tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, average hourly earnings, bond, bond market, closing, decline, economic reports, employment report, favorable results, Float, mortgage rates, quarter productivity, rate, report, Unemployment, unemployment numbers, unemployment rate

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 2nd

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 2nd

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly following the release of mixed economic data. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 59 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points during early trading. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There were two pieces of relevant economic data posted this morning. The first was December’s Personal Income and Outlays report that revealed a 0.2% decline in income and a 1.0% drop in spending.

Forecasts were calling for a 0.4% decline in income and a 0.9% drop in spending. In other words, income didn’t drop as much as expected, but spending was slower than forecasted. These readings, along with downward revisions to November’s results have prevented this report form influencing this morning’s mortgage pricing.

The Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index was today’s other releas e. It showed a reading of 35.6, up from December’s revised 32.9 reading. This indicates that surveyed manufacturers were more optimistic about business conditions the last two months than many had thought. This is considered negative news for bonds because rising levels of sentiment could mean that the manufacturing sector may have reached bottom. However, this was the 12th consecutive month of a reading below 50 that means more surveyed business executives felt business worsened than those who felt it had improved, which is a recession sign.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release tomorrow. There is a report Wednesday that has the potential to influence the markets and mortgage rates but quite often is a non-factor. The ISM will release their services sector index late Wednesday morning. It is similar to today’s manufacturing index but tracks the service sector. If it shows a significant surprise, it may affect bond trading enough to slightly chan ge mortgage rates. However, more times than not its results do not affect rates.

Overall, look for a fairly active week in the markets and mortgage rates. Friday will likely be the most important day of the week due to the influence the Employment report has on the markets. But, as we have seen lately we don’t necessarily need economic news for mortgage rates to move significantly. Therefore, it would be a good idea to maintain contact with your mortgage professional the next few days.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond trading, economic data, institute of supply management, ism manufacturing index, mortgage rates, negative news, release tomorrow, relevant news, report, sector index, spending

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 20th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 20th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well into negative territory despite early stock losses. The stock markets have also shown a weak opening with the Dow down 130 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently down 29/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 of a discount point over Friday’s rates. The financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of the Martin Luther King holiday.

Today’s weakness in bonds is a result of renewed concern about the supply of government debt that will need to be sold to cover the economic stimulus that President Obama has hinted at. The significant new debt that will be sold makes the current outstanding bonds less attractive to investors, leading to lower bond prices and higher mortgage rates this morning.

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This will likely leave the stock markets to be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week. Whether this is good or bad news for bonds depends if stocks rally or fall. If stocks move higher, bonds will likely suffer, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, if stocks show weakness, funds may shift into bonds, driving mortgage rates lower.

Today is Inauguration Day and while I don’t believe the ceremony or President Obama’s speech will directly affect the markets or mortgage rates, it does bring in the new administration, new policies and new theories. Those changes could come into play in the coming weeks and likely influence mortgage rates. Issues such economic stimulus and recovery along with tax and deficit news could create significant volatility in the markets and therefore mortgage pricing.

The week’s only relevant monthly economic data is December’s Housing Starts report early Thursday m orning, but I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond prices, bond trading, closing, economic stimulus, inauguration day, influence, lock, negative territory, President Obama, report, stock, stock losses, Tuesday, week

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 18th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 18th

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This will likely leave the stock markets to be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week. Whether this is good or bad news for bonds depends if stocks rally or fall. If stocks move higher, bonds will likely suffer, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, if stocks show weakness, funds may shift into bonds, driving mortgage rates lower.

The financial markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the Martin Luther King Holiday. They will reopen Tuesday morning for regular trading hours. I don’t believe many mortgage lenders will be open tomorrow, but any that are will likely use Friday’s rates or not allow a rate to be locked tomorrow.

Tuesday is Inauguration Day and while I don’t believe the ceremony or President Obama’s speech will directly affect the m arkets or mortgage rates, it does bring in the new administration, new policies and new theories. Those changes could come into play in the coming weeks and likely influence mortgage rates. Issues such economic stimulus and recovery along with tax and deficit news could create significant volatility in the markets and therefore mortgage pricing.

The week’s only relevant monthly economic data is December’s Housing Starts report early Thursday morning, but I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading.

Also Thursdays is the Labor Department’s weekly update on unemployment filings. They are expected to show that 548,000 new claims were filed last week. A smaller number is considered negative for bonds while a larger than expected rise is positive. But, this data is also not considered t o be of high importance. Since it is one of the only two reports released at all, it may influence trading some but not enough to greatly affect mortgage rates.

Overall, I am expecting a relatively quiet week in the mortgage market. As long as the stock markets remain fairly calm, mortgage rates will probably close the week close to Tuesday’s opening levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond trading, closing, economic report, economic stimulus, inauguration day, influence, lock, mortgage credit, mortgage lenders, open tomorrow, President Obama, report, tomorrow, trading, Tuesday, week

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 11th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 11th

This week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data to digest. There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow or Tuesday, but there is very important data scheduled for release each of the three remaining days.

December’s Retail Sales data is the first important data and it comes early Wednesday morning. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of approximately 1.1%. A larger drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the week will be released by the Labor Department early Thursday morning. They will post the Producer Price Index (PPI) then, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Rapidly rising prices raises inflation concerns and leads to mortgage rate increases. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, especially in the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices, the bond market should fair well. Current expectations are calling for a 1.9% drop in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data.

There are three relevant reports on the agenda for Friday. The first is December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is also one of the most important monthly reports that we see since it measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. It is very similar to Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI), but is considered to be of higher importance since it tracks consumer prices. The overall index is expected to fall 1.0% while the core data is expected to increase 0.1%. Weaker than expected readings should lead to bond improvements and lower mortgage rates Friday.

December’s Industrial Production report is the second report to be posted Friday. It will be released at 9:15 AM ET and measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This gives us a good indication of manufacturing sector strength or weakness. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.8% from November’s production. A larger than expected drop would be good news and should lead to lower mortgage rates Friday as long as the CPI doesn’t reveal any surprises.

The final report of the week is January’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates. Good news would be if it shows a reading weaker than the 60.0 that is expected. However, it is the week’s least important of the five releases and probably will have little impact on Friday’s mortgage rates due to the importance of the CPI and production reports.

Overall, Wedn esday, Thursday or Friday may end up being the most important day of the week. The single most important report is the CPI, but the PPI and Retail Sales reports are also considered to be of high importance and can heavily influence the markets. Therefore, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional, especially the latter part of the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: closing, commerce department report, consumer price index, cpi, index cpi, inflation concerns, lower mortgage, producer price index, producer price index ppi, report, report measures, retail establishments, retail sales data, U.S., U.S. Since, week

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 4th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 4th

This week bring us the release of only two monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. However, in addition to those two reports, we also will see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and a couple of Treasury auctions that may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates.

The first of the two reports will be posted late Tuesday morning when the Commerce Department releases November’s Factory Orders data. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last month, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 2.6% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates.

Also Tuesday will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed’s future moves toward interest rates, even though the Fed appears to be running out of options. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

There are two Treasury auctions that are worth watching also. The 10-year TIPS Notes (inflation-indexed securities) will be auctioned Tuesday while the traditional 10-year Treasury Note will be sold Thursday. If investor demand for these sales is strong, we should se e bonds strengthen during afternoon trading those days and possibly improve mortgage rates slightly. However, a lackluster interest in the sales could cause bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to move higher following the announcement of the sale results.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is considered to be one of the most important monthly releases we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a larger than expected drop in new payrolls and a small increase or even a decline in earnings would be good news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 7.0%. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in payrolls in the neighborhoo d of 475,000 with earnings rising 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for Tuesday to be important with the economic data, FOMC minutes and one of the two more important Treasury auctions. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we will probably see mortgage rates move higher again.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guarante ed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: afternoon hours, bond, bond market, bond trading, closing, durable goods orders, fomc meeting, investor demand, lock, market participants, mortgage rates, report, Treasury, treasury auctions, Tuesday, week, year treasury note