retail establishments
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 13th
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Jan. 13th
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Tuesday’s bond market opened in negative territory as traders prepare for the next three day’s economic releases. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 6 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today’s only economic data wasn’t considered to be relevant but its surprise reading is worth noting. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. Trade Deficit stood at $40.4 billion in November, down sharply from the $56.7 billion in October. This data usually is not of much importance to the markets or mortgage rates, but it did catch the attention of traders since it was its lowest reading in 5 years. The data has not had much of an influence on this morning’s mortgage rates since the large decline is being attributed to the huge drop in oil prices. However, more eyes will be watching next month’s relea se, which may allow it to impact bond trading and possibly mortgage pricing.
Tomorrow kicks off the week’s important releases with December’s Retail Sales data being posted during early morning trading. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of approximately 1.2%. A larger drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Thursday and Friday will also be important days due to the PPI being posted Thursday and the very important CPI on Friday. There is also other data scheduled for release Friday, so I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates over the next three days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 12th
Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 12th
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Monday’s bond market opened in negative territory but has since rebounded into positive ground. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 85 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, but we will likely still see a small increase in this morning’s mortgage pricing due to weakness in mortgage bonds late Friday and early this morning.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today or tomorrow. Look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and therefore mortgage rates until we get to the relevant data later in the week. If we continue to see stock weakness, bonds may thrive, pushing mortgage rates slightly lower.
The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data to digest. The first is December’s Retail Sales data early Wednesday morning. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of approximately 1.1%. A larger drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Overall, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday may end up being the most important day of the week. The single most important report is the CPI, but the Retail Sales and PPI reports on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, are also considered to be of high importance and can heavily influence the markets. Therefore, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional, especially the latter part of the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… Th is is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 11th
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 11th
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This week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data to digest. There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow or Tuesday, but there is very important data scheduled for release each of the three remaining days.
December’s Retail Sales data is the first important data and it comes early Wednesday morning. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of approximately 1.1%. A larger drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The second report of the week will be released by the Labor Department early Thursday morning. They will post the Producer Price Index (PPI) then, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Rapidly rising prices raises inflation concerns and leads to mortgage rate increases. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, especially in the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices, the bond market should fair well. Current expectations are calling for a 1.9% drop in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data.
There are three relevant reports on the agenda for Friday. The first is December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is also one of the most important monthly reports that we see since it measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. It is very similar to Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI), but is considered to be of higher importance since it tracks consumer prices. The overall index is expected to fall 1.0% while the core data is expected to increase 0.1%. Weaker than expected readings should lead to bond improvements and lower mortgage rates Friday.
December’s Industrial Production report is the second report to be posted Friday. It will be released at 9:15 AM ET and measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This gives us a good indication of manufacturing sector strength or weakness. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.8% from November’s production. A larger than expected drop would be good news and should lead to lower mortgage rates Friday as long as the CPI doesn’t reveal any surprises.
The final report of the week is January’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates. Good news would be if it shows a reading weaker than the 60.0 that is expected. However, it is the week’s least important of the five releases and probably will have little impact on Friday’s mortgage rates due to the importance of the CPI and production reports.
Overall, Wedn esday, Thursday or Friday may end up being the most important day of the week. The single most important report is the CPI, but the PPI and Retail Sales reports are also considered to be of high importance and can heavily influence the markets. Therefore, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional, especially the latter part of the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Oct. 14th
Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Oct. 14th
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Tuesday’s bond market has opened down sharply following yesterday’s enormous gain in stocks. The bond market was closed yesterday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday, but the stock markets were open. The result was a 963 point gain in the Dow that was the biggest percentage daily gain in 75 years. That rally carried over to this morning’s early trading but has since lost steam.
The Dow is currently down 40 points after being up approximately 400 points earlier. The Nasdaq, which closed higher by 194 points yesterday and was up 50 points this morning, is now down 30 points. The bond market is currently down 27/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of seven economic reports that are of interest to the mortgage market. It also gets heavy in quarterly corporate earnings, which could cause significant movement in the stock markets again. The earnings results could affect bond trading as investors move funds into stocks if the reports are good. The other possibility is that the earnings reports would generally disappoint, meaning investors may move funds out of stocks and into bonds as a safe-haven. The latter would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. I suspect we will get results that should be favorable to bonds, so I am shifting to a float recommendation.
The first pieces of data come tomorrow morning, which are two of the week’s more important releases. The first is September’s Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the markets because it measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop. However, stronger than expected sales could fuel a stock rally and push mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.7% decline in sales.
September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is the second report of the day. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy and is also considered to be of high importance to the markets. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 0.4% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher. But, weaker than expected readings should lead to lower rates, especially if the sales report doesn’t give us stronger than expected results.
Also scheduled for release tomorrow is the Fed Beige Book during afternoon trading. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it reveals stronger signs of inflation from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher shortly after its 2:00 PM ET release.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Oct. 12th
Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Oct. 12th
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This week brings us the release of seven economic reports that are of interest to the mortgage market. The week also gets heavy in quarterly earnings releases for companies, which could cause significant movement in the stock markets again. The earnings results could affect bond trading as investors move funds into stocks if the reports are good. The other possibility is that the earnings reports would generally disappoint, meaning investors may move funds out of stocks and into bonds as a safe-haven. The latter would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
The bond market is closed tomorrow in observance of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The first pieces of data come Wednesday morning, which are two of the week’s more important releases. The first is September’s Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the markets because it measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop. However, stronger than expected sales could fuel a stock rally and push mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.4% decline in sales.
September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is the second report of the day. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy and is also considered to be of high importance to the markets. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 0.3% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher. But, weaker than expected readings should lead to lower rates, especially if the sales report doesn’t give us stronger than expected results.
Also scheduled for release Wednesday is the Fed Beige Book during afternoon trading. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it reveals stronger signs of inflation from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher shortly after its 2:00 PM ET release.
Thursday morning also brings us two economic releases. The first is September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.1% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher Thursday. However, a smaller than expected reading should ease inflation concerns and lead to lower mortgage rates.
September’s Industrial Production data is the second release of the day and will be released mid-morning. It gives us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.8% drop in output from August’s level, meaning that manufacturing activity fell sharply. A smaller than expected decline or an increase in output would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates while a larger drop should help push mortgage rates lower, assuming that the CPI shows favorable results.
The remaining two reports are both scheduled for release Friday morning. September’s Housing Starts is the first, but is the week’s least important piece of data. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually is not a mover of mortgage rates. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes last month. If it varies greatly from forecasts, we could see the bond market have some reaction to the news, but probably not enough to cause much movement in rates.
The last report of the week is October’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows a sizable decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will probably rise. It is expected to show a reading of 69.0, down from September’s final of 70.3.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates this week, but mostly the latter part of the week. The key reports are Wednesday’s PPI and Retail Sales reports and Thursday’s CPI data. But as we saw last week, we certainly don’t need factual economic releases to see mortgage rates move. I am thinking we may still see plenty of volatility in the stock markets that may affect bond prices also. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if you have not locked an interest rates yet.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 07/14/2008 12:21:00 PM EST
Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 07/13/2008 10:09:00 PM EST
This week brings us the release of six important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Throw in a couple of days of Fed testimony and we have the makings for a very interesting week. The first piece of data comes Tuesday morning with the release of June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 1.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the core data reading. The bond market should react quite favorably to weaker than expected readings, but a bigger than expected jump in the core reading could send mor tgage rates higher Tuesday. June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted Tuesday. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.3% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report. Next on tap is Wednesday’s release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is a mirror of Tuesday’s PPI with the exception that the CPI measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.7% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core data is considered to be the key reading of both the PPI and CPI because they exclude more volatile food and en ergy prices, giving us a more stable measure of inflation. Higher than expected readings could raise inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher both days. June’s Industrial Production data will also be posted Wednesday morning. This data measures output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.2% rise in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector showed moderate growth during the month. A smaller than expected increase would be good news and could help push mortgage rates slightly lower Wednesday. Also worth noting about Wednesday is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members during discussion and voting at the last meeting. Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak before th e Senate Banking Committee Tuesday morning and the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday morning at 10:00am ET. His testimony will be broadcasted and will be watched very closely. Analysts and traders will be looking for the status of the economy and his expectations of future growth, particularly inflation concerns. This should create a great deal of volatility in the markets during the testimony and the question and answer session that follows. If he indicates that inflation is still a point of concern, we will likely see the bond market tank and mortgage rates rise. Thursday’s only relevant data is June’s Housing Starts report. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but is not considered to be of high importance. Analysts are currently expecting to see a small decline in new starts of housing projects. However, I don’t see this data having a much of an impact on mortgage rates Thursday unless it varies greatly f rom forecasts. Overall though, I think we will see the most movement in mortgage pricing this week on Tuesday or Wednesday due to the release of the inflation related indexes and Mr. Bernanke’s testimony those days. This weekend’s news of Fed support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely help stocks, but I am not sure of how the bond and mortgage markets will react to that news. I suspect it will be taken as positive news, but it will be interesting to see if it has a significant influence on mortgage pricing. Regardless, even without that turn of events, it will likely be an active week for mortgage rates with a fair amount of volatility. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is o nly my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. |
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Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/12/2008 10:39:00 AM EST
Thursday’s bond market has opened down sharply following early stock gains and stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are rallying during early trading with the Dow up 141 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, which will push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point. Limiting this morning’s increase in rates was a strong showing during afternoon trading yesterday. However, this morning’s losses erased those gains and then some. Helping contribute to yesterday’s late rally was the afternoon release of the Fed Beige Book. It showed overall weak economic growth in most regions of the country. It noted that food and energy prices were rising quickly and could help prevent growth in the economy. The downside of that is rising fuel prices can also lead to inflation in other parts of the economy and make it to the consumer level. But, this news, coupled with an eventual loss of over 200 points in the Dow, led to a rally in mortgage-related bonds. Unfortunately, the gains have been wiped out this morning. This morning’s big news was the release of May’s Retail Sales data that showed a 1.0% rise in sales at retail establishments. This was nearly twice the increase that was forecasted and shows that spending was much stronger than expected during the month. The footnote to this reading though is that this was the month that most of the economic stimulus checks went out and their impact is being debated. But another number in the report that also was negative for bonds was an upward revision to April’s sales. They were previously announced as a decline of 0.2%, but today’s report said they actually rose 0.4%. That indicates that sales were stronger than many had thought over the past two months. Also worth noting was a larger than expected number of new unemployment claims filed last week. The Labor Department reported that 384,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, exceeding forecasts and getting very close to the important benchmark of 400,000. That level is another recessionary sign and could lead to further concerns about the economy that may benefit bonds. There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first and more important of the two is May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. This is one of the most important reports we see each month. There are two readings of this index, the overall and the core data. The core data is considered to be the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A large increase could raise fear in the bond market that inflation is a threat. This would not be good news for bond prices or mortgage rates since inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. Rising inflation causes investors to sell bonds, driving prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.5% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The last report of the week is June’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 59.5. A larger then expected decline in consumer confidence would be considered good news for bonds, however, the CPI report is much more likely to have a bigger impact on the markets than this one will. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. |
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