Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Apr. 22nd

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Apr. 22nd

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with no relevant economic news and early stock gains making bonds less attractive. The Dow is currently up 60 points while the Nasdaq has gained 28 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which should equate to an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release again today, so look for any movement in bond prices and mortgage rates to come as a result of a swing in stock prices. Yesterday’s afternoon weakness in bonds was not a complete surprise and we may have more of it today. Accordingly, this may be a good time to lock a rate if closing in the immediate future.

We do have some relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show a drop from February’s sales, but this data is not considered highly important. It can however, influence trading and lead to slight changes in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts.

Also tomorrow is the weekly release of unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to show that 639,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week’s total. The higher the number of claims, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Tags: association of realtors, bond, closing, existing homes sales, lock, mortgage commentary, national association of realtors, negative territory, rate, refinancing a home, Release, release tomorrow, stock gains, tomorrow, unemployment figures, Wednesday

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Mar. 12th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Mar. 12th

Thursday’s bond market has opened flat despite early stock gains and stronger than expected economic news. The Dow is currently up 99 points while the Nasdaq is up 14 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department posted February’s Retail Sales data this morning, revealing a 0.1% decline in sales. This was stronger than the 0.4% that was expected. Today’s release also revised January’s sales figures higher 0.8%, meaning that sales at the retail level of the economy were stronger than expected the past two months. That is considered to be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but the market seems to be shrugging off the data.

Also this morning, the Labor Department announced that 654,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than expected, but this weekly report usually does not carry much influence on the markets and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The 30-year Bond auction is being held today. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM, as yesterday’s 10-year Note sale. Yesterday’s sale was met with a strong demand from investors, which helped rally bonds during afternoon trading. The 10-year Note is more relevant to mortgage rates than the 30-year Bond, but a weak or strong sale today can lead to selling to selling or buying of bonds on a broader scale. So, if we get another strong interest in the sale, we may see bonds rally again this afternoon.

There are two economic reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. The first is the release of January’s Goods and Services Trade Balance. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week’s least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much. It is expecte d to show a trade deficit of $38.2 billion.

The second report of the morning is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 56.3.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now. .. This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Tags: bond, bond auction, bond market, closing, economic reports, Float, labor department, mortgage rates, retail level, retail sales data, stock gains, trade balance, U.S., year

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Mar. 9th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Mar. 9th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. However, stocks have given back those gains to currently stand close to Friday’s closing levels. The Dow is currently up 4 points while the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30 year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, but this does not mean that we can expect to see a quiet week in mortgage rates. We could very well see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, but rates are likely to mo ve several days this week.

The most important of the three reports will be posted Thursday morning when February’s Retail Sales data is released. This report is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month’s report is expected to show a decline in sales of approximately 0.4%. If it reveals a larger decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals an increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise Thursday morning.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Thursday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of bot h sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. But I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week regardless of the auction results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Tags: 10 year treasury note, bond, bond auctions, closing, economic releases, economy data, lock, mortgage market, mortgage markets, mortgage rates, negative territory, retail sales data, stock gains, Thursday, U.S., week, year

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Mar. 3rd

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Mar. 3rd

Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly following early stock gains. However, the major indexes have given back those gains to currently stand in negative territory. The Dow was up as much as 85 points during earlier trading while the Nasdaq had gained 21 points. But the Dow is currently down 24 points while the Nasdaq has now lost 2 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, but I am expecting to see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to strength yesterday.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Fed Chairman Bernanke is speaking to the Senate Budget Committee about the Federal budget and current economic conditions. His words seemed to have fizzled the early stock rally and have pushed traders back into selling mode. If stocks continue to fall further, we may see bonds rally this afternoon and possibly lead to a downward revision in mortgage rates.

Tomorrow’s only relevant data is the Fed Beige Book during afternoon trading. This report details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading tomorrow. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

Thursday and Friday brings us the release of a couple of important economic results, including Friday’s Employment Report. Those reports could drive stock prices lower if they show weaker than expected results, and possibly create a bond rally that will improve mortgage rates even more. But, with the recent volatility in the markets, it is a good idea to remain in contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were consi dering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, Chairman Bernanke, closing, downward revision, economic results, Fed, fed beige book, fed chairman bernanke, federal budget, Float, fomc meetings, negative territory, rate, senate budget committee, stock, stock gains, stock rally, trading

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 28th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 28th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite early stock gains. The stock markets are currently showing noticeable gains with the Dow up 118 points and the Nasdaq up 41 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which with yesterday’s late gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data being released today. Later this afternoon though we will get the results of the year’s first FOMC meeting. It will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET but it is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rates and probably will not heavily influence trading or mortgage rates. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move in the post meeting statement. However, I am not expecting major impact on the markets or mortgage rates because the Fed can’t lower key rates much more. There is little chance of indicating a possible rate hike in the near future, so I do n’t believe that this meeting will have the influence they usually do.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of December’s Durable Goods Orders. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years. The data often is quite volatile from month to month, but is currently expected to show a decline in orders of 2.0%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

December’s New Home Sales report, the sister release to Monday’s Existing Home Sales, will be posted late tomorrow morning. It is expected to show another decline in sales of new homes, but is not important enough to heavily influence mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, closing, durable goods orders, existing home sales, Float, fomc meeting, mortgage rates, rate, rate hike, refinancing a home, stock gains, stock markets, U.S., Wednesday

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 26th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 26th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and early stock gains. The Dow and Nasdaq are kicking the week off in positive ground with the Dow up 65 points and the Nasdaq up 18 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to strength late Friday.

There were two reports posted this morning that are somewhat relevant to mortgage pricing. The first was December’s Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors. It showed an unexpected increase of 6.5% in the number of home resales last month, but it also indicated that home prices continue to fall. These are mixed results for the bond market, but since the data is not considered to be of high importance, its impact on this morning’s mortgage rates has been minimal.

December’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was also posted this morning, revealing an increase of 0.3% in the index. This means that the indicators are pointing towards an increase in economic activity over the next three to six months. This is considered bad news for bonds because it was expected to show that economic activity would continue to fall.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of January’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). It is considered to be of high-importance to the bond market and therefore can move mortgage rates. It is an indicator of consumer sentiment, which is important because a decline would be construed as a sign that consumers may be less willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, market participants are very attentive to related data. A reading smaller than the expected 39.0 would be ideal for the bond market and mortgage rates.

There is no factual economic data scheduled for release Wednesday, bu t we will get the results of this year’s first FOMC meeting. It will begin tomorrow and adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. It is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rate, but as is often the case, traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move. However, I am not expecting this meeting to have a major impact on the markets or mortgage rates because the Fed can’t lower key rates much more. There is little chance of indicating a possible rate hike in the near future, so I don’t believe that this meeting will have the influence they usually do.

Overall, look for tomorrow or Friday to be the biggest days for mortgage rates. Friday’s GDP is the single most important piece of data this week, but we may see quite a bit of movement in rates tomorrow also. If we see weaker than expected results from the most important reports, we should see rates close the week much lower than last Friday’s closing levels. If the data shows stronger than ex pected results, we may see mortgage rates move higher again this week. This is of course, assuming that the Fed meeting doesn’t reveal any surprises. I strongly recommend that fairly constant contact is maintained with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, bond, closing, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, consumer sentiment, existing home sales, home resales, leading economic indicators, LEI, market participants, national association of realtors, rate, stock gains, tomorrow, U.S., week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 2nd

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Jan. 2nd

Friday’s bond market has opened flat despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are starting the new year in positive ground with the Dow up 122 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently almost unchanged from Wednesday’s close, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today’s only economic news was the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index. It showed a reading of 32.4, which was its lowest reading since June 1980. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of 35.4, meaning that manufacturer sentiment was weaker than many had thought. This is favorable news for bonds but due partly to this morning’s stock gains, this data has failed to push mortgage rates lower.

The bond market will close early again today, therefore, I don’t believe we will see much of an improvement in today’s rates. In fact, we may see so me additional pressure on bonds as traders close the shortened week. This may lead to upward revisions to mortgage rates before today’s 2:00 PM close.

Next week is fairly busy in terms of economic releases. There is no relevant news scheduled for release Monday, but the rest of the week brings us the release of several reports that may affect mortgage rates including December’s Employment report next Friday. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, closing, economic releases, employment report, institute for supply management, ism manufacturing index, lock, mortgage rates, refinancing a home, relevant news, stock gains, today, upward revisions, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 19th

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Dec. 19th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains and a lack of economic data to drive trading. The stock markets are reacting favorably to news of an approval to use bailout funds U.S. automakers. However, the rally has lost some steam as the major indexes are well off earlier highs. The Dow is currently up 95 points but was up 180 points earlier while the Nasdaq has gains 25 points.

The bond market is currently down 14/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates. I still think there is not much chance of rates improving considerably lower than current levels, at least not in the immediate future. Accordingly, we should proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the immediate future.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. I am expecting the bond market and mortgage rates to remain near current levels, as long as the stock markets don’t rally past earlier highs or give up much more of their current gains. As long as stocks remain fairly calm this afternoon, I believe mortgage pricing will also.

Next week brings us the release of a handful of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are only two that can be considered of somewhat high importance to mortgage rates and neither are scheduled for release Monday. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best intere st of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bailout, bond, bond market, closing, economic reports, immediate future, lock, mortgage rates, negative territory, rate, refinancing a home, Release, stock, stock gains, stock markets, U.S.

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 8th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 8th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive despite early stock gains. The stock markets are starting the week off strong with the Dow up 276 points and the Nasdaq up 45 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .500 of a discount due to weakness late Friday.

This week is moderately busy in terms of the number of economic releases scheduled for release. There are four on the agenda but two of them are considered to be very important that can heavily influence the markets and mortgage pricing. In addition, there is a 10-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may hurt or help boost bond prices, depending on how strong of a demand there is in the sale. Since all of the data is scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, the most movement in rates will likely be the latter part of the week.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today, tomorrow or Wednesday. The first data is October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report early Thursday morning. This report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $54.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.

Overall, expect to see a pretty volatile week in the financial markets and mortgage pricing with the most movement Thursday and Friday. Friday’s Retail Sales and PPI reports can cause a great deal of movement in rates. Due to the expected volatility, I am holding the current lock recommendations. However, please maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: 10 year treasury, 10 year treasury note, balance report, bond, bond prices, closing, economic releases, first data, lock, mortgage rates, pricing, refinancing a home, Release, stock gains, Thursday, U.S., week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 18th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Nov. 18th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again, despite early stock gains. The stock markets are rebounding from yesterday’s 223 point loss in the Dow with fairly strong gains during morning trading. The Dow is currently up 181 points while the Nasdaq has gained 11 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us the first of the week’s two key inflation readings. They reported that the PPI fell a whopping 2.8% that was a much larger drop than analysts had forecasted. However, the more important core data reading that excludes more volatile food and energy prices rose 0.4% when analysts were expecting to see a 0.1% rise. This means that prices for non food and energy costs rose more than expected, which is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Today’s markets are being boosted by favorable comme nts by Treasury Secretary Paulson that the Fed bailout program was making progress. Many lawmakers had questioned the usage of the money for the program but market participants liked what they heard, helping to fuel this morning’s buying in stocks and bonds.

Tomorrow’s only data is October’s Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeably impact on mortgage rates. I don’t expect this month’s version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts forecast. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes.

Tomorrow afternoon brings us the release of the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed’s next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates highe r tomorrow afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rate cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, closing, core data, Fed, fed bailout, Float, fomc meeting, inflationary pressures, market move, market participants, Secretary Paulson, stock gains, stocks and bonds, tomorrow, treasury secretary, volatile food