Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 9th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Feb. 9th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for this week’s sales and speeches by President Obama and Fed Chairman Bernanke. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down approximately 15 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There are only three pieces of economic data scheduled to be posted this week along with a couple of Treasury auctions and relevant speeches from highly important speakers. Only one of the three reports are considered to be of high importance while one is moderately important. The third is not considered to be of much importance unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

None of the economic reports were posted today. However, President Obama will address the nation on national television this evening. He will likely speak about his economic r ecovery plan amongst other important topics. What he says may heavily influence trading tomorrow morning. It is very difficult to predict whether the markets are likely to react favorably to his words or negatively. But I am expecting to see volatility tomorrow morning.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow at 1:00 PM ET. He is expected to testify and update the panel on the Fed’s liquidity injections and future plans. His words could create movement in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing during afternoon trading.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release until Wednesday morning. This is when the week’s least important data, December’s Goods and Services Trade Balance, will be posted. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates.

Overall, it is difficult to peg a particular day as the most important of the week. Tomorrow will be quite interesting with the reaction to President Obama’s words from tonight and Fed Bernanke’s testimony on the Fed’s attempts to stabilize the financial system. The single most important piece of economic news comes Thursday, so that day needs to be given much weight also. Throw in the fact that there is an early close Friday due to the President’s Day holiday next Monday, and we have the makings of an interesting week ahead of us.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to b e in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond prices, Chairman Bernanke, closing, economic reports, Fed, fed chairman bernanke, financial services committee, house financial services committee, lock, national television, negative territory, obama, President Obama, tomorrow, treasury auctions, U.S., week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Feb. 4th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Feb. 4th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors prepare for the upcoming debt sales the Treasury announced. The stock markets are showing moderate gains with the Dow up 23 points and the Nasdaq up 25 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates slightly higher.

Today’s only economic news was the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) service index. It showed a reading of 42.9 that was higher than expected, meaning the service sector was more optimistic about business conditions last month than in December. It also was a higher reading than was expected, but fortunately not enough to affect this morning’s mortgage rates.

There are two pieces of important data scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is December’s Factory Orders data and is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders report except this one tracks new orders for both durable and non-durable goods . Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of 3.0%. A large variance from forecasts could lead to changes in mortgage pricing.

The second report of the day is Productivity and Costs data for the 4th Quarter. Since a high level of productivity is thought to allow economic growth without inflationary concerns, this data can cause enough movement in the bond market to affect mortgage rates. If it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts of a 1.0% increase, we may see some movement in mortgage rates tomorrow.

Also on tap for tomorrow are weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. With January’s monthly statistics due out Friday morning, traders will be watching the data to help predict Friday’s monthly numbers. Current forecasts are calling for 592,000 new claims. The larger the number the better scenario for mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was takin g place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, closing, debt sales, durable goods orders, Float, institute for supply management, lock, moderate gains, negative territory, refinancing a home, release tomorrow, service index, tomorrow, unemployment claims, Wednesday

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Jan. 29th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Jan. 29th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, continuing yesterday afternoon’s selling. The stock markets are also showing losses as they give back a good portion of yesterday’s gains. The Dow is currently down 154 points while the Nasdaq has lost 36 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will push this morning’s mortgage rates approximately .125 – .250 higher than yesterday’s revised rates. This should equate to approximately .500 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s morning rates.

This morning’s economic data actually gave us favorable results. The Commerce Department said that new orders for big-ticket items, or Durable Goods, fell 2.6% last month. This was a larger than expected decline, but making the news even better was a significant reduction to November’s orders that was revised from down 1.0 to down 3.7%. This means that orders for products that are expected to last or more years were lower than expected. This is considered good news for bonds because it indicates a still weakening manufacturing sector.

December’s New Home Sales report was also posted this morning, revealing a sharp decline in sales of newly constructed homes. The 14.7% drop in December’s sales were the weakest level of sales since records started being kept on them in 1963. This indicates a still softening housing sector that is generally good news for bonds.

There are three reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first is one of the most important reports that we see regularly. The initial reading of the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be posted early tomorrow morning. This data is so important because it is considered to be the best measure of economic growth. The GDP itself is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the United States. Its’ results usually have a major impact on the financial markets and can cause significant changes in mortgage rates. There are three readings to each quarter’s activity, each released approximately one month apart. The first, which usually carries the most volatility, is expected to be a decrease of 5.4%. A weaker reading would be great news for the bond market, but the 5.4% decline would be the biggest quarterly drop in 26 years.

The 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) is also scheduled for release early tomorrow morning. It measures employer costs for employee wages and benefits, giving us an indication of the threat of wage inflation. It usually has more of an effect on the bond market than the stock markets. Current forecasts are showing an increase of 0.7%. A lower than expected reading would be favorable to bonds and mortgage rates, but the GDP reading will be the biggest influence on trading and rates tomorrow morning.

The last report of the week is the revised reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer co nfidence, which is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend. I don’t see this data having much of an impact on the markets or mortgage rates due to the importance of the employment index and GDP figures. It is expected to show no change from the preliminary reading of 61.9.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: big ticket items, bond, bond market, favorable results, GDP, initial reading, manufacturing sector, mortgage rates, negative territory, release tomorrow, stock markets, tomorrow, United States, yesterday

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 28th Afternoon Update

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 28th

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

Today’s FOMC meeting adjourned with no change to key short-term interest rates, keeping the benchmark Fed Funds Rate near 0%. The stock markets rallied following the adjournment, pushing the Dow up 200 points and the Nasdaq higher by 53 points on the day. The bond market soured though, driving bond prices lower that pushed yields and mortgage rates higher. Overall, we can expect to see an increase in tomorrow’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point unless the morning’s data offsets those losses or pushes them higher.

The post meeting statement did give us some insight into what actions the Fed may take to help boost economic activity since this rate can’t be lowered any further. They indicated that they were ready to buy longer-term government securities such as the 10-year Treasury Note and 30 year Bond if they felt that it would generate lending. This is actually good news as it creates another buyer for all the debt that could some to market to pay for the stimulus package currently being considered. Unfortunately, the statement was not very definitive, more or less saying that it is an option available not a commitment to do so.

The statement also hinted at the Fed’s forecast for the economy, saying that significant risks still remain but that a ?gradual recovery? could begin late this year. In other words they expect the economy to continue to slow for most of the year before slowly rebounding. That is actually fairly favorable news for bonds, but traders apparently were disappointed by the lack of solid details of what the Fed will do, particularly regarding the possibility or likelihood of buying government securities. The result was a weak afternoon for bonds and a likely upward revision to mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of December’s Durable Goods Orders. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years. The data often is quite volatile from month to month, but is currently expected to show a decline in orders of 2.0%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

December’s New Home Sales report, the sister release to Monday’s Existing Home Sales, will be posted late tomorrow morning. It is expected to show another decline in sales of new homes, but is not important enough to heavily influence mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaran teed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: Afternoon, bond, bond prices, decline, durable goods orders, fed funds rate, fomc meeting, government securities, Home, interest, lock, Mortgage, mortgage rate, stimulus package, stock markets, tomorrow, UPDATE, upward revision, year, year treasury note

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 26th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 26th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and early stock gains. The Dow and Nasdaq are kicking the week off in positive ground with the Dow up 65 points and the Nasdaq up 18 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to strength late Friday.

There were two reports posted this morning that are somewhat relevant to mortgage pricing. The first was December’s Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors. It showed an unexpected increase of 6.5% in the number of home resales last month, but it also indicated that home prices continue to fall. These are mixed results for the bond market, but since the data is not considered to be of high importance, its impact on this morning’s mortgage rates has been minimal.

December’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was also posted this morning, revealing an increase of 0.3% in the index. This means that the indicators are pointing towards an increase in economic activity over the next three to six months. This is considered bad news for bonds because it was expected to show that economic activity would continue to fall.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of January’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). It is considered to be of high-importance to the bond market and therefore can move mortgage rates. It is an indicator of consumer sentiment, which is important because a decline would be construed as a sign that consumers may be less willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, market participants are very attentive to related data. A reading smaller than the expected 39.0 would be ideal for the bond market and mortgage rates.

There is no factual economic data scheduled for release Wednesday, bu t we will get the results of this year’s first FOMC meeting. It will begin tomorrow and adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. It is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rate, but as is often the case, traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move. However, I am not expecting this meeting to have a major impact on the markets or mortgage rates because the Fed can’t lower key rates much more. There is little chance of indicating a possible rate hike in the near future, so I don’t believe that this meeting will have the influence they usually do.

Overall, look for tomorrow or Friday to be the biggest days for mortgage rates. Friday’s GDP is the single most important piece of data this week, but we may see quite a bit of movement in rates tomorrow also. If we see weaker than expected results from the most important reports, we should see rates close the week much lower than last Friday’s closing levels. If the data shows stronger than ex pected results, we may see mortgage rates move higher again this week. This is of course, assuming that the Fed meeting doesn’t reveal any surprises. I strongly recommend that fairly constant contact is maintained with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, bond, closing, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, consumer sentiment, existing home sales, home resales, leading economic indicators, LEI, market participants, national association of realtors, rate, stock gains, tomorrow, U.S., week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 21st

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Jan. 21st

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors continue to fret about upcoming debt sales. The stock markets are rebounding somewhat from yesterday’s sell-off with the Dow up 77 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by another .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Tomorrow brings us the release of both of this week’s only reports. Neither are considered to be of high importance to the markets, but they are the week’s only factual releases. Therefore, they may influence trading enough to slightly affect mortgage pricing.

The first is December’s Housing Starts report early tomorrow morning. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading. It is expected to show a d ecline in starts of new homes from November’s level.

The second is weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 548,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This would be an increase from the previous week, which would be considered favorable for bonds. If the report shows a much smaller number of claims, we may see bond prices fall and mortgage rates move higher again. However, a larger than expected number may lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of a ll/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond prices, bond trading, closing, debt sales, lock, lower mortgage, mortgage credit, mortgage rates, negative territory, refinancing a home, tomorrow, unemployment figures, Wednesday, week

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 18th

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Jan. 18th

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This will likely leave the stock markets to be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week. Whether this is good or bad news for bonds depends if stocks rally or fall. If stocks move higher, bonds will likely suffer, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, if stocks show weakness, funds may shift into bonds, driving mortgage rates lower.

The financial markets are closed tomorrow in observance of the Martin Luther King Holiday. They will reopen Tuesday morning for regular trading hours. I don’t believe many mortgage lenders will be open tomorrow, but any that are will likely use Friday’s rates or not allow a rate to be locked tomorrow.

Tuesday is Inauguration Day and while I don’t believe the ceremony or President Obama’s speech will directly affect the m arkets or mortgage rates, it does bring in the new administration, new policies and new theories. Those changes could come into play in the coming weeks and likely influence mortgage rates. Issues such economic stimulus and recovery along with tax and deficit news could create significant volatility in the markets and therefore mortgage pricing.

The week’s only relevant monthly economic data is December’s Housing Starts report early Thursday morning, but I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but it is not considered to be a heavy influence on bond trading.

Also Thursdays is the Labor Department’s weekly update on unemployment filings. They are expected to show that 548,000 new claims were filed last week. A smaller number is considered negative for bonds while a larger than expected rise is positive. But, this data is also not considered t o be of high importance. Since it is one of the only two reports released at all, it may influence trading some but not enough to greatly affect mortgage rates.

Overall, I am expecting a relatively quiet week in the mortgage market. As long as the stock markets remain fairly calm, mortgage rates will probably close the week close to Tuesday’s opening levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond trading, closing, economic report, economic stimulus, inauguration day, influence, lock, mortgage credit, mortgage lenders, open tomorrow, President Obama, report, tomorrow, trading, Tuesday, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Jan. 15th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Jan. 15th

Thursday’s bond market has opened fairly flat despite another round of sizable stock losses. The stock markets are continuing yesterday’s selling with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 25 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us two pieces of economic news this morning. The first was the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December that revealed a decline of 1.9% in the overall reading. This matched forecasts, but the more important core reading that excludes more volatile food and energy prices rose 0.2% when it was expected to rise 0.1%. This indicates that prices at the producer level of the economy that do not include food or energy rose more than expected. That basically is bad news for the bond market because rising prices raises inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-rela ted bonds less attractive to investors. However, tomorrow’s CPI reading that measures inflation at the consumer level of the economy is considered to be of more importance to the markets.

The second Labor Department release today was last week’s initial unemployment claims filings. They reported that 524,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, exceeding forecasts of 503,000. But since this data is a weekly reading, its results usually do not have much of an impact on the markets or mortgage pricing.

There are three relevant reports on the agenda for tomorrow. The first is December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is also one of the most important monthly reports that we see since it measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. The overall index is expected to fall 1.0% while the core data is expected to increase 0.1%. Weaker than expected readings should lead to bond improvements and lower mortgage rates tomorrow since this is the most important of the three.

December’s Industrial Production report is the second report to be posted tomorrow. It will be released at 9:15 AM ET and measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This gives us a good indication of manufacturing sector strength or weakness. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.8% from November’s production. A larger than expected drop would be good news and should lead to lower mortgage rates Friday as long as the CPI doesn’t reveal any surprises.

The final report of the week is January’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates. Good news would be if it shows a reading weaker than the 60.0 that is expected. However, it is the week’s least important of the five releases and probably will have little im pact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates due to the importance of the CPI and production reports.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, closing, consumer price index, cpi, index cpi, inflation concerns, initial unemployment claims, lower mortgage, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, stock losses, tomorrow, U.S., volatile food, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 5th

Monday’s bond market has opened well into negative territory despite early stock losses. The stock markets are giving back some of Friday’s new year gains with the Dow down 68 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently down 28/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. This morning’s bond weakness can be attributed to economic stimulus news that has traders concerned. The concern comes from two angles with the first being that an economic recovery will likely be bad news for bonds as stocks will likely become the investment of choice. This could lead to significant selling that would push yields and mortgage rates higher.

The second concern is that any stimulus package will require a large amount of new debt to be issued by the government. The additional supply weakens demand for existing debt, which in turns drives bond prices lower and their yields higher. Even though hard figures or estimates have not been released, traders are assuming that it will create an unfavorable situation for current bonds and Treasury notes.

The rest of the week brings us the release of only two monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. However, in addition to those two reports, we also will see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and a couple of Treasury auctions that may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates.

The first of the two reports will be posted late tomorrow morning when the Commerce Department releases November’s Factory Orders data. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last month, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 2.6% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates.

Also tomorrow will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed’s future moves toward interest rates, even though the Fed appears to be running out of options. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

There are two Treasury auctions that are worth watching also. The 10-year TIPS Notes (inflation-indexed securities) will be auctioned tomorrow while the traditional 10-year Treasury Note will be sold Thursday. If investor demand for these sales is strong, we should see bonds strengthen during afternoon trading those days and possibly improve mortgage rates slightly. However, a lackluster interest in the sales could cause bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to move higher following the announcement of the sale results.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for tomorrow to also be important with the economic data, FOMC minutes and one of the two more important Treasury auctions. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we will probably see mortgage rates move higher again.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I wo uld…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond prices, bond trading, closing, durable goods orders, economic stimulus, fomc meeting, lock, negative territory, stimulus package, stock losses, tomorrow, Treasury, treasury auctions, year

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 22nd

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Dec. 22nd

Monday’s bond market has opened flat with no relevant economic news on tap for today and a fairly uneventful morning in stocks. The stock markets are showing losses, but they can be considered pretty minor compared to recent sessions. The Dow is currently down 17 points while the Nasdaq has lost 20 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from Friday’s close, which should keep this morning’s mortgage pricing near Friday’s levels.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly or quarterly economic reports and a fairly important Treasury auction tomorrow. Most of the data being released is not considered to be of high importance to the markets, but with the Christmas holiday falling during the week we can expect very thin trading. We also may see profit-taking by some firms to capture the sizable gains in bonds this year as it winds down, so by no means can we be guaranteed a quiet week.

There is no relevant economic news schedul ed for release today, but four of the week’s reports are scheduled to be posted tomorrow. The first is the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP. I don’t think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month’s first revision showed that the economy contracted at a 0.5% annual pace during the quarter and this month’s revision is expected to show the same.

The next two are November’s Existing and New Home Sales reports. The Existing Home Sales release will come from the National Association of Realtors while the New Home Sales data is a Commerce Department report. Both give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, neither are considered to be of high importance. Both of the reports are expected to show a drop in sales.

The fourth report of the day also comes late morning when the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December is posted. Current forecasts are calling for a small downward revision from the preliminary reading of 59.1. This is important because rising consumer confidence indicates that consumers may be more apt to make large purchases in the near future. An unexpected upward revision could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

The last event tomorrow is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. If the sale is met with a decent demand from investors, we could see interest in other notes and bonds such as mortgage-related bonds increase during afternoon trading. But, a lackluster interest from investors may also lead to weakness in bonds and possible upward afternoon revisions to mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking pl ace over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, closing, commerce department report, existing home sales, index of consumer sentiment, lock, michigan index, mortgage credit, national association of realtors, quarter gdp, tomorrow, treasury auction, week