Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Mar. 12th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Mar. 12th

Thursday’s bond market has opened flat despite early stock gains and stronger than expected economic news. The Dow is currently up 99 points while the Nasdaq is up 14 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department posted February’s Retail Sales data this morning, revealing a 0.1% decline in sales. This was stronger than the 0.4% that was expected. Today’s release also revised January’s sales figures higher 0.8%, meaning that sales at the retail level of the economy were stronger than expected the past two months. That is considered to be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but the market seems to be shrugging off the data.

Also this morning, the Labor Department announced that 654,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than expected, but this weekly report usually does not carry much influence on the markets and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The 30-year Bond auction is being held today. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM, as yesterday’s 10-year Note sale. Yesterday’s sale was met with a strong demand from investors, which helped rally bonds during afternoon trading. The 10-year Note is more relevant to mortgage rates than the 30-year Bond, but a weak or strong sale today can lead to selling to selling or buying of bonds on a broader scale. So, if we get another strong interest in the sale, we may see bonds rally again this afternoon.

There are two economic reports scheduled to be posted tomorrow morning. The first is the release of January’s Goods and Services Trade Balance. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week’s least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much. It is expecte d to show a trade deficit of $38.2 billion.

The second report of the morning is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 56.3.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now. .. This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
©Mortgage Commentary 2009

Tags: bond, bond auction, bond market, closing, economic reports, Float, labor department, mortgage rates, retail level, retail sales data, stock gains, trade balance, U.S., year

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 13th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 13th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, erasing part of yesterday’s late rally that came as a result of strong stock losses. The stock markets have opened in negative ground, continuing yesterday’s selling. The Dow is currently down 90 points while the Nasdaq has lost 27 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will still likely see a small improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

This morning’s first piece of news was the release of September’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It gave us the size of the U.S. Trade Deficit, showing a $56.5 billion deficit. That was a little smaller than forecasts of $57.0 billion, but this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets and has had little impact on this morning’s trading or mortgage pricing.

The other news released this morning was weekly unemployment figur es from the Labor Department. They reported that new claims for benefits jumped to 516,000 last week, exceeding forecasts of 479,000. The previous week’s figures were revised to 484,000, meaning analysts were expecting to see a small decline in claims when we actually saw a sizable jump. While this data is not considered to be of high importance because it tracks only a week’s worth of filings, it can influence trading and rates when it varies from forecasts such as today’s variance.

There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning with one of them considered to be very important to the markets. October’s Retail Sales report is the first and the highly important one because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. If this report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in sales of approximately 2.1%.

The second report comes late tomorrow morning when November’s preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 57.0, down from October’s final reading of 57.6.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: balance report, bond, bond market, closing, consumer spending, lock, mortgage rates, negative territory, release tomorrow, report, stock losses, stock markets, trade balance, U.S., U.S. Trade, yesterday

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 9th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 9th

Thursday’s bond market has opened down sharply despite a lackluster opening in stocks. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 16 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down 33/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 – .500 of a discount point.

The markets still seem to be lost and unable to gain and solid traction. I am surprised that bonds are taking as much of a beating today as they are, especially with no solid gains in stocks. However, this could mean some traders feel the bottom is near for the stock markets and that funds are likely to shift back into stocks very soon. Accordingly, we may want to consider locking a rate is still floating and if closing in the immediate future.

There was no monthly or quarterly economic news released today. The only data posted was weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They reported that 478,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week’s 498,000 claims but was slightly higher than forecasts. But, since this data is not considered to be of high importance since it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, it has not been able to help bonds this morning.

August’s Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released early tomorrow, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates. It is expected to show a $59.0 billion trade deficit.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond prices, closing, immediate future, labor department, lock, mortgage rates, rate, refinancing a home, stock markets, Thursday, Trade, trade balance, trade deficit, U.S., unemployment figures, week

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 05/08/2008 12:38:00 PM EST

Thursday’s bond market has up sharply, continuing yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are also in positive territory with the Dow up 56 points and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market is currently up 27/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The only economic news posted this morning were the weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They said that 365,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a smaller number than was expected, but fortunately has not affected bond prices or mortgage rates.

Yesterday’s 10-year Note auction was not met with a very good demand. Despite this we saw bond prices rise during afternoon trading as the stock markets faltered. This is a sign that funds were being shifted from stocks into bonds, which may indicate an expectation of weakness in stocks. If the major stock indexes do begin to fall, we should see bonds benefi t and mortgage rates move lower.

Today’s 30-year Bond sale could very well have the same result as yesterday’s auction did. However, it appears that investors may not be so quick to react to its results. With no important economic data on tap tomorrow, we could see further gains in bonds, especially if stocks turn south.

March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a $61.3 billion trade deficit.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do i f I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: balance report, bond, bond market, bond prices, closing, Float, labor department, major stock indexes, mortgage rates, refinancing a home, stock, stock markets, Trade, trade balance, U.S., unemployment figures, yesterday