Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Feb. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Feb. 5th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of favorable economic reports. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 44 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Both of this morning’s important releases gave us favorable results. Even weekly unemployment numbers that are not considered highly important came in weaker than expected. The Labor Department said that 626,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was the largest weekly filing since October 1982 and helps support the theory that tomorrow’s monthly employment report will show bleak numbers.

The two more important reports were December’s Factory Orders and 4th Quarter Productivity numbers. The factory orders data showed a larger than expected drop of 3.9% in new orders. This was the fifth consecutive mo nthly decline in orders, which is a first for the report. Analysts were expecting to see a decline of 3.0%, meaning manufacturing activity is slower than thought. In addition, today’s report also revised November’s decline in orders from 4.6% to 6.5% that is now the largest monthly decline since July 2000.

The 4th Quarter Productivity and Costs data was the third piece of news posted this morning. It showed a surprising jump of 3.2% in worker output. This was more than double what analysts had expected, meaning workers were more productive in each hour worked last quarter. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report. It will give us the unemployment rate, number of jobs lost or added to the economy last month and average hourly earnings. Analysts are expecting it to show that the unemployment rate jumped 0.3% to 7.5% last month while 500,000 jobs were lost. The average earnings reading is expected to show that earnings rose 0.3%. A higher unemployment rate and larger job loss would be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. If we do get favorable results, I would expect to see bonds rally and mortgage rates fall tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, average hourly earnings, bond, bond market, closing, decline, economic reports, employment report, favorable results, Float, mortgage rates, quarter productivity, rate, report, Unemployment, unemployment numbers, unemployment rate

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 30th

Rate Lock Advisory – Tuesday Dec. 30th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are contributing to the bond losses with early gains of 103 points in the Dow and 24 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but with yesterday’s afternoon weakness we should see this morning’s mortgage rates move higher by approximately .750 of a discount point.

The Conference Board released their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December late this morning. It showed a reading of 38.0 that was much weaker than the 45.2 that was expected and was a new record low for the index. This indicates that consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situation than many had thought. That is actually good news for bonds, generally speaking, because consumers are less likely to make large purchases if they are concerned about their own financial situations.

The only data we will get tomorrow are weekly unemployment numbers from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 575,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous week’s spike of 586,000. However, this data usually is not influential in setting mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The bond market will close early tomorrow ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday and will remain closed Thursday. The stock markets will also be closed Thursday.

The markets will reopen Friday morning along with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 35.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment fell from November’s 36.2. A smaller rea ding will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, closing, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, financial situations, index measures, institute for supply management, ism manufacturing index, lock, negative territory, stock markets, unemployment benefits, unemployment numbers

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 24th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 24th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite mixed results from this morning’s economic data. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 46 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently 7/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point.

There were two monthly reports released this morning along with weekly unemployment numbers. The first was November’s Durable Goods Orders that showed orders for big-ticket products fell 1.0% last month. This was much stronger than the 3.1% decline that was forecasted, however, October’s 6.2% drop was revised to a decline of 8.4%. That revision help offset some of the surprise from November’s orders, this was still negative news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the day was November’s Personal Income and Outlays data. The income portion of the report gave us favorable results with 0.2% decline in personal income and a downward revision of 0.2% to October’s income reading. This means that consumers had less income to spend than was expected during those two months. The bad news came in the spending portion of the report that showed a 0.6% decline in consumer spending. It was expected to show a 0.8% drop, meaning consumers spent more than thought.

The third piece of news posted this morning was last week’s unemployment numbers that showed 586,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was nearly 30,000 above what analysts had forecasted. Unfortunately, this data is not given much weight because it tracks a single week’s worth of claims.

The bond market will close early today and remain closed tomorrow in observance of the Christmas Day holiday. The stock and bond markets will be open Friday, but with no relevant economic news scheduled for release and another early close for bonds, I am not expecting to see much m ovement in rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, bond markets, closing, decline, downward revision, durable goods orders, favorable results, lock, negative news, outlays, stock markets, unemployment numbers

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/19/2008 1:01:00 PM EST

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as interest turns to stocks. The stock markets are currently mixed with the Dow up 16 points and the Nasdaq down a few points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we will likely still see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday. The first piece of news released today was last week’s unemployment numbers from the Labor Department. They reported that 381,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a decline form the previous week, but still higher than the 375,000 that was expected. This can be considered a bit of good news for bonds, but the truth is that this data is generally considered to be of low importance because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims. May’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was released this morning by the Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group. They said that the indicators rose 0.1%, slightly exceeding forecasts. This means that economic activity is being predicted to rise slightly over the next three to six months. There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for oil prices and stock movement to be the biggest influences on bond trading and mortgage rates. I am expecting to see a fairly quiet day in rates, but still fear there are more increases to mortgage rates likely before we see much of a decline. Therefore, I am holding the lock recommendations. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond trading, business research group, closing, leading economic indicators, LEI, lock, mortgage rates, negative territory, refinancing a home, stock, stock markets, stock movement, unemployment numbers, week

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/18/2008 11:10:00 AM EST

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses. The stock markets are reacting negatively during early trading to some corporate earnings news. This has the Dow down 131 points and the Nasdaq down 32 points. The bond market is currently up 20/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point. There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today, so I am expecting to see the stock markets and oil prices be the biggest influences on bond trading and mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes extend their early losses, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates move lower. However, if stocks recover, we will likely see bonds suffer and possibly get upward revisions to mortgage rates today. May’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be posted late tomorrow morning. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, will post this data. It attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. If it shows rapidly rising levels of activity, bond prices will probably drop, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. But, a weaker than expected reading could lead to lower mortgage pricing. It is expected to show no change from April to May. We will also get last week’s unemployment numbers from the Labor Department tomorrow morning. Normally these figures are not worth addressing too much, but the previous week’s number of new claims jumped to 384,000, coming close to an important benchmark of 400,000. If last week’s total moved higher, we may see bonds respond favorably. If the number of new claims was below forecasts of 375,000, bonds could move lower tomorrow. This data comes before the LEI and before the other markets open. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond prices, business research group, closing, corporate earnings, earnings news, leading economic indicators, LEI, lock, lower mortgage, major stock indexes, stock, stock losses, tomorrow, unemployment numbers, upward revisions, week