Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 4th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Dec. 4th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of weaker than expected economic news and a lackluster open in stocks. The stock markets are currently mixed with the Dow down 15 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department said late this morning that October’s Factory Orders fell 5.1%. This was the third consecutive month of a decline in new orders and a larger drop than analysts had expected. Forecasts were calling for a drop of 4.5% in orders, meaning that the manufacturing sector was weaker than thought. While this is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, this data is no considered to be of high importance so its impact on trading and mortgage pricing was fairly minimal.

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department gave us last week’s weekly unemployment claim figures. They reported a drop in new claims, pegging the total at 509,000 compared to forecasts of 540,000 new claims. But, since this data tracks only a week’s worth of new claims, it is also not considered to be of high importance to the markets.

The Labor Department will also post November’s Employment report early tomorrow morning. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for another upward change in the unemployment rate to 6.8%, payrolls down approximately 325,000 and an increase of 0.2% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 6.8%, a larger decline in jobs and no change in the earnings portion.

Regardless of its results, look for tomorrow morning’s r eport to cause a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage rates, especially if they vary much from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: amoun, average earnings, average hourly earnings, bond, bond market, closing, labor department, lock, mortgage rates, mortgage shoppers, rate, Unemployment, unemployment claim, unemployment rate, upward change

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Nov. 7th

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Nov. 7th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of a much weaker than expected Employment report. The stock markets are showing gains after a couple of sizable down days this week. The Dow is currently up 84 points while the Nasdaq has gained 17 points. The bond market is currently down 19/32, but we should still see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount due to a strong rally in bonds late yesterday. This morning’s losses are taking back some of yesterday’s late gains, but mortgage rates are still lower than yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us some surprising readings this morning, saying that the U.S. unemployment rate jumped from 6.1% in September to 6.5% in October. They were expected to show a 6.3% unemployment rate. This was the highest rate of unemployment since March 1994.

The number of payrolls added or lost during the month also opened some eye s. The economy lost 240,000 jobs last month, which was worse than the 200,000 that was forecasted. But equally as bad was a large revision to September’s payrolls. What was previously announced as a loss of 159,000 jobs in September is now being estimated at 284,000. This was the 10th consecutive monthly drop in payrolls and brings the yearly total to 1.2 million jobs lost and the first time we have seen 1 million jobs lost since 2001.

Today’s report gives us little to be optimistic about in regards to the employment sector. It is becoming more and more clear to many analysts that the economy is actually in a recession despite the lack of an official announcement or other benchmark indicators. What is equally concerning is that many think the problems are going to get worse before better. This could be good news for bonds and mortgage shoppers, but the crazy volatility we have seen in the markets recently makes it very difficult to follow historical patter ns or make realistic predictions. There is little doubt that we will see more volatility in the coming weeks.

Next week is light in terms of the number of relevant economic reports scheduled for release. We will get some important data late next week, but the first part of the week there is nothing scheduled for release to be concerned with. This make sit very likely that the stock markets will be the biggest influence on bonds and mortgage rates the first couple of days of the week. But look for more details on next week’s event sin Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion an d cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: benchmark indicators, bond market, closing, employment report, employment sector, lock, mortgage rates, mortgage shoppers, negative territory, rate, Release, stock markets, U.S., Unemployment, unemployment rate, week, yesterday

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Nov. 6th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite another round of stock losses and favorable economic news. The stock markets are continuing yesterday’s late selling that drove the Dow down 486 points and the Nasdaq down 98 points. The Dow has currently lost another 174 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 41 points. The bond market has fluctuated this morning between positive and negative ground, but currently stands down 11/32. This should mean that this morning’s mortgage rates will be approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s rates.

This morning’s release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading revealed a larger than expected increase of 1.1% in employee output. This was slightly higher than forecasts, but is still considered to be good news for bonds because high levels if productivity allows the economy to grow without inflationary pressures rising.

The second piece of data this morning was last we ek’s unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They reported that 481,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a drop from the previous week but higher than expected. This news isn’t the cause of this morning’s stock weakness, but today’s data was watched more closely due to the importance of tomorrow’s monthly report.

October’s Employment report will be released early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the im mediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, closing, employment report, Float, importance of tomorrow, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, negative territory, quarter productivity, rate, stock, stock losses, Unemployment, unemployment figures, unemployment rate, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 5th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are well into negative ground this morning with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but due significant strength in bonds late yesterday, we will likely see an improvement of approximately .500 – .625 in today’s mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release today. Tomorrow’s sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter’s final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Lab or Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week’s worth of claims, tomorrow’s release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday’s monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

Friday’s Employment report is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don’t believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower. However, stronger than forecasted readings could give back this morning’s improvements to rates since the markets are expecting weak numbers.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the immediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average earnings, bond, bond market, closing, employment report, inflationary pressures, mortgage rates, Productivity, productivity index, quarter productivity, rate, report, unemployment figures, unemployment rate, week, worker productivity

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 2nd

Rate Lock Advisory – Thursday Oct. 2nd

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news and another round of stock losses. The stock markets seem to be worried about the potential approval of the Fed bailout program that the Senate approved last night. The result is the Dow down 220 points and the Nasdaq losing 53 points. The bond market is currently up 24/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by .125 – .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us August’s Factory Orders data late this morning, saying that new orders for durable and non-durable goods fell 4.0%. This was a much larger decline than was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector is still slowing. That is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also released this morning were last week’s unemployment claim figures. The Labor Department said that new claims rose to 497,000 last week, reaching a seven year high. Thi s is also good news because it raises concerns about what tomorrow’s monthly Employment report will show.

The Labor Department will post September’s Employment report early tomorrow morning. This report will reveal the U.S. Unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates tomorrow. However, stronger then forecasted readings would not be good news for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate 6.1%, a decline in new payrolls of approximately 105,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking pl ace within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average hourly earnings, bond, closing, employment sector, fed bailout, lock, lower mortgage, rate, refinancing a home, stock losses, U.S. Unemployment, Unemployment, unemployment claim, unemployment rate

Rate Lock Advisory – Friday Sep. 5th

Friday’s bond market has opened on positive territory following the release of weaker than expected employment numbers. The stock markets are showing another weak morning with the Dow down 105 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by another .250 of a discount point. The Labor Department posted August’s Employment figures this morning, saying that the unemployment rate spiked to a five year high of 6.1% when it was expected to remain at 5.7%. They also reported that the economy lost 84,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecasted decline of 75,000. Both of these numbers are favorable to bonds and mortgage rates because they indicate a weakening employment sector. A bit of negative news for bonds was the average hourly earnings readings that rose 0.4%. This was 0.1% higher than was expected, but not enough of a concern to prevent stocks from falling and bo nd prices from rising. Next week is fairly light in terms of the number of economic reports scheduled for release. However, two of the reports on the calendar are considered to be very important to the markets and mortgage rates. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but look for more details on next week’s event sin Sunday’s weekly preview. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average hourly earnings, bond, bond market, closing, economic reports, employment numbers, employment sector, Float, negative news, refinancing a home, Release, relevant data, stock markets, unemployment rate, week

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 08/01/2008 11:00:00 AM EST

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly following the release of this morning’s economic news that had mixed results but leaned more towards unfavorable to bonds. The stock markets are also in negative ground with the Dow down 74 points and the Nasdaq down 30 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which will likely have little impact on this morning’s mortgage rates. However, if bonds fall any further we likely will see mortgage rates revise higher later today. The Labor Department gave us this morning’s big news with the release of July’s Employment figures. They said that the unemployment rate moved higher by 0.2% to a four year high of 5.7%. Analysts were expecting an increase but only to 5.6%. This was the part of the report that was favorable to bonds. The negative portion came in the number of payrolls added or lost during the month. Analysts were expecting to see a loss of 75,000 jobs last month, but today’s report showe d a loss of 51,000 payrolls. It also revised June’s loss upward by 11,000 jobs. However, this was the seventh consecutive monthly decline in payrolls, which indicates that the employment sector remains soft. Generally speaking, that is good news for bonds even though its not as good as we had hoped for. Today’s second release was the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index for July. It showed a stronger than expected reading of 50.0. Analysts were expecting to see a larger decline to a reading of 49.2. This means that more surveyed manufacturers felt business had improved during the month than was expected. That is also considered to be a negative for bonds, but was not enough to create much concern in the market. Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic reports for the markets to digest, beginning with July’s Personal Income and Outlays early Monday morning. This report is considered to be moderate-to-high in import ance and can influence bond trading and mortgage rates. However, I would not expect to see a significant move in rates solely as a result of this report. The rest of the week includes data on manufacturing and worker productivity along with another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Look for more details on this meeting and next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond market, closing, early monday morning, economic reports, employment figures, employment sector, institute for supply management, ism manufacturing index, Release, report, showe, stock markets, today, unemployment rate

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 07/02/2008 12:03:00 PM EST

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory again as investors continue to worry about the economy and what this month’s Employment report is going to show. The stock markets are showing losses this morning with the Dow down 36 points and the Nasdaq down 21 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that new orders at U.S. factories rose 0.6% in May. This was slightly higher than forecasts but not enough to influence bond trading or mortgage rates during morning trading. They also revised April’s sales higher by 0.2% but it also has not had an impact on mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of June’s Employment report that will give us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added or lost and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets.

The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and no change in earnings. Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate to slip 0.1% to 5.4%, while 60,000 jobs were lost and a 0.3% rise in earnings.

The bond market will close early tomorrow ahead of Friday’s Independence Day holiday and will reopen Monday morning. This may add to the volatility following tomorrow’s release as investors move to protect themselves over the long weekend.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average hourly earnings, bond, bond market, bond prices, bond trading, closing, employment report, employment sector, Float, lower mortgage, refinancing a home, tomorrow, U.S., Unemployment, unemployment rate

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/29/2008 12:04:00 AM EST

This week brings us the release of very few economic reports for the markets to digest. There are only three monthly reports scheduled for release that are likely to affect mortgage rates, but one of them is arguably the most influential single piece of data that we see each month. This is a shortened trading week with the markets closed Friday and an early bond market close Thursday in observance of the Independence Day holiday. The first of the week’s three reports is of fairly high importance to the bond market. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June late Tuesday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting another reading below 50.0. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business remained close to unchanged from the previous month. Good news would be a weaker than expected reading. The Commerce Department post May’s Factory Orders data late Wednesday morning, which is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was released last week. The biggest difference being that this week’s report covers both durable and non-durable goods. It usually doesn’t have as much of an impact on the bond market as the durable goods data does, but can lead to changes in mortgage pricing if it varies from forecasts. Current expectations are showing a 0.6% rise in new orders from April’s levels. A smaller than expected rise in orders would be considered good news for the bond market and should help lower mortgage rates slightly Wednesday. The only other important release of the week comes early Thursday morning. The Labor Department will give us June’s unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very impo rtant readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and no change in earnings. Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate to slip 0.1% to 5.4%, while 50,000 jobs were lost and a 0.3% rise in earnings. Overall, I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week. Tuesday morning should bring some volatility with the ISM index, but Thursday’s report is definitely the most important of the week and can single handily lead to an improvement or increase in mortgage rates for the week. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average hourly earnings, bond, closing, commerce department post, durable goods orders, economic reports, Float, index measures, institute of supply management, lower mortgage, mortgage rates, Release, Thursday, tuesday morning, unemployment rate, week

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/06/2008 11:44:00 AM EST

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of interesting employment numbers. The stock markets are reacting negatively to the news with the Dow down 247 points and the Nasdaq down 43 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, but we will likely see only a .125 of a discount point improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Labor Department gave us this week’s most important data early this morning with the release of May’s Employment numbers. The biggest surprise of the data was a 0.5% jump in the unemployment rate to bring it to 5.5%. This was the largest monthly increase in approximately 22 years, indicating that the employment sector is much weaker than thought. This is very good news for the bond market.

Also considered a positive for bonds was the loss of 49,000 payrolls. Analysts were expecting to see a loss of 60,000 jobs, but this was the fifth consecuti ve monthly decline in payrolls. That note seems to be more important than the 11,000 job variance between the actual and forecasted numbers.

In a bit of negative news, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% during the month, exceeding forecasts of a 0.2% rise. This means that wages rose more than expected, which raises concerns about wage-inflation that can easily spread to other sectors of the economy. Fortunately, the headline unemployment number seems to be the focus of trading this morning.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of important pieces of data. There is no relevant news scheduled for release Monday. Most of the important data will be posted the latter part of the week. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock i f my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: average hourly earnings, employment numbers, employment sector, negative news, point improvement, refinancing a home, sectors of the economy, unemployment number, unemployment rate, wage inflation