Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/09/2008 11:43:00 AM EST

Monday’s bond market has opened down sharply as investors turn away from inflation sensitive investments. The stock markets are mixed by a wide margin with the Dow up 110 points and the Nasdaq down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 30/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point. I also would not be surprised to see further upward revisions sometime today as the bond market appears likely to continue its selling.

There was no relevant economic news released today. The week’s first but least important data is April’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and will be released at 8:30 AM. It isn’t likely to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates, but nevertheless forecasts are expecting to see a $59.5 billion deficit.

Late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it shows slowing economic activity, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.

Overall, it is going to be a fairly busy week for the financial markets. I feel that Friday will be the single most important day of the week with the release of the CPI, but Thursday also is likely to bring significant movement in rates due to the Retail Sales report being released. Accordingly, this would be a very good week to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: balance report, beige book, bond, bond market, closing, fomc meetings, lock, mortgage rates, refinancing a home, report tomorrow, today, U.S., upward revisions, week, wide margin

Weekly Rate Lock Recommendation – 04/20/2008 10:13:00 PM EST

This week is fairly light in terms of economic news scheduled for release. There are four reports scheduled, but only one of them is likely to cause much movement in mortgage rates. Accordingly, there is a fairly decent possibility of seeing a fairly calm week in the mortgage market.

The week’s first piece of data is one of the least important of all four. The National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers Tuesday morning, which are expected to show a drop from February. A similar report to this one and actually the week’s least important data- March’s New Home Sales will be released Thursday morning. Both of these releases give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but unless they vary greatly from analysts forecasts, I don’t think they will cause much movement in mortgage rates.

March’s Durable Goods Orders will be posted early Thursday morning. This report gives us an indicatio n of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts call for a small increase in orders. A smaller than expected increase could help boost bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop Thursday morning. However, a stronger than expected reading would indicate that the manufacturing sector is gaining strength quicker than many had thought. This would be negative news and would probably help drive mortgage rates higher.

Also Thursday is a 5-year Treasury Note auction. These sales sometimes bring volatility to the bond market ahead of the actual sales as investors prepare for them. However, that weakness is usually only temporary and will correct itself after the sale is complete as long as it was met with a decent demand from investors. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a strong demand, bond prices should rise during afternoon trading. But, lackluster interest could lead to weakness and upward revisions to mortgage rates.

The last important data of the week is the University of Michigan’s update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment. I don’t expect it to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts Current forecasts are calling for an upward revision to 64.2.

Overall, look for Thursday to be the most important day of the week with the Durable Goods report being posted and the Treasury auction. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the major stock indexes continue to rally, bonds will likely suffer and mortgage will move higher. If stocks pull back, we could see mortgage rates move lower this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Tags: association of realtors, closing, durable goods orders, existing homes sales, Float, lackluster interest, mortgage credit, mortgage market, mortgage rates, national association of realtors, report, Thursday, tuesday morning, U.S., upward revisions, week