Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 12th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Jan. 12th

Monday’s bond market opened in negative territory but has since rebounded into positive ground. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 85 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, but we will likely still see a small increase in this morning’s mortgage pricing due to weakness in mortgage bonds late Friday and early this morning.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today or tomorrow. Look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and therefore mortgage rates until we get to the relevant data later in the week. If we continue to see stock weakness, bonds may thrive, pushing mortgage rates slightly lower.

The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data to digest. The first is December’s Retail Sales data early Wednesday morning. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of approximately 1.1%. A larger drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday may end up being the most important day of the week. The single most important report is the CPI, but the Retail Sales and PPI reports on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, are also considered to be of high importance and can heavily influence the markets. Therefore, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional, especially the latter part of the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… Th is is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond trading, closing, commerce department report, five pieces, lock, mortgage bonds, negative territory, refinancing a home, report measures, retail establishments, retail sales data, stock, stock markets, U.S., U.S. Since, Wednesday, week

Weekly Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 21st

Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Dec. 21st

This significantly shortened trading week brings us the release of six monthly or quarterly economic reports and a fairly important Treasury auction. Most of the data being released is not considered to be of high importance to the markets, but with the Christmas holiday falling during the week we can expect very thin trading. This means that we may see a larger reaction than normal to some news because there will be fewer traders working and less transactions being made. We also may see profit-taking by some firms to capture the sizable gains in bonds this year as it winds down, so by no means can we be guaranteed a quiet week.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. Five of the week’s events are scheduled for Tuesday. The first is the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP. I don’t think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month’s first revision showed that the economy contracted at a 0.5% annual pace during the quarter and this month’s revision is expected to show the same.

The next two are November’s Existing and New Home Sales reports. The Existing Home Sales release will come from the National Association of Realtors while the New Home Sales data is a Commerce Department report. Both give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, neither are considered to be of high importance. Both of the reports are expected to show a drop in sales.

The fourth report of the day also comes late morning when the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December is posted. Current forecasts are calling for a small downward revision from the preliminary reading of 59.1. This is important because rising consumer confidence indicates that consumers may be more apt to make large purchases in the near future. An unexpected upward revision could lead to higher mortga ge rates Tuesday.

The last event on Tuesday that is worth noting is the 5-year Treasury Note auction. If the sale is met with a decent demand from investors, we could see interest in other notes and bonds such as mortgage-related bonds increase during afternoon trading. But, a lackluster interest from investors may also lead to weakness in bonds and possible upward afternoon revisions to mortgage pricing.

The remaining two reports are scheduled for release Wednesday at 8:30 AM. This is when November’s Personal Income and Outlays data and Durable Goods Orders will be posted. The Income and Outlays report will give us an important measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data usually has a fairly significant impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for no change in income and a 0.8% decli ne in spending. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, we should see the bond market improve and mortgage rates drop slightly Wednesday

The last piece of data will be the Commerce Department’s Durable Goods Orders for November. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last at least three years. Analysts are expecting the report to show a decline in the neighborhood of 3.1%. A larger decline would indicate that the manufacturing sector was weaker than many had thought. This would be good news for the bond market and should drive mortgage rates lower. However, a smaller than expected drop in orders could lead to mortgage rates moving higher early Wednesday morning.

Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets and mortgage rates, but nothing drastic unless we get some surprising results from the week ‘s data. The bond market will close early Wednesday and Friday and be closed all day Thursday. This means that firms that trade bonds will likely be keeping only a skeleton staff most of the week. Still, my biggest fear between now and the end of the year will be selling bonds to capture profits from the significant rally of the past several weeks. That could lead to bonds falling and mortgage rates rising.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: association of realtors, closing, commerce department report, downward revision, existing home sales, index of consumer sentiment, lock, mortgage credit, national association of realtors, quarter gdp, release tomorrow, report, treasury auction, U.S., Wednesday, week

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 3rd

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Dec. 3rd

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of favorable economic news. The stock markets are in positive ground with the Dow up 87 points and the Nasdaq up 25 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage pricing higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The revised reading to the 3rd Quarter Productivity report was posted this morning, showing an upward revision in productivity. What was previously estimated as a 1.1% rate was expected to be lowered to 0.9%. However, today’s release revealed a 1.3% annual rate, which means that workers were more productive than previously thought. That is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Fed Beige Book will be released at 2:00 PM ET this afternoon. This report, which is named after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. It is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so it results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises. I am expecting it to show significant signs of economic weakness and easing inflationary pressures. But, I believe the market has this news already built into it so the news may not lead to improvements in rates this afternoon.

Tomorrow’s only monthly report is October’s Factory Orders. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except that this one includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but we may see it cause some movement in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in orders of approximately 4.5%.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, bond trading, closing, durable goods orders, economic weakness, fed beige book, fomc meetings, inflationary pressures, lock, negative territory, productivity report, quarter productivity, rate, report, upward revision, Wednesday

Daily Mortgage Rate Lock Advisory – Sunday Nov. 23th

Rate Lock Advisory – Monday Nov. 24th

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of an abundance of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are seven reports on the calendar with several being considered to be of high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates. With multiple moderately or highly important reports due out more than one day this week, we will likely see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates day to day.

October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted late this morning. This report, along with Wednesday’s New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results.

The first important data comes early tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month’s preliminary r eading of -0.3%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately -0.6%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Late tomorrow morning, November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted. The Conference Board will release the CCI for the month of November at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a small increase from last month’s 38.0 reading to somewhere around 39.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

There are four importan t reports scheduled to be posted Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted early morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items. It is expected to show a 2.5% drop in new orders. A larger decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data is thought to measure consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show that income rose 0.1% and that spending fell 0.7%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late Wednesday morning. Analysts are expecting to see little change to the preliminary reading of 57.9. Unless we see a significant variance from the fore casted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

Overall, I believe that it is going to be an active week for the mortgage market. Today or Friday will be the least important day of the week and either Tuesday or Wednesday will be the most important. The bond market will close early Wednesday and remain closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. I still expect to see plenty of movement in rates the remaining days, so please be careful and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financi ng a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, downward revision, economic reports, existing home sales, existing home sales data, inflation concerns, mortgage credit, mortgage rates, Wednesday, week

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 12th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Nov. 12th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as investors shift funds from stocks into bonds. This has pushed the stock indexes significantly lower again with the Dow down 312 points and the Nasdaq down 46 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point over Monday’s rates. The bond market was closed yesterday in observance of the Veteran’s Day holiday.

There is no relevant data being released today, but we will get the results of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. These results can influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates this afternoon. If the sale was met with a strong demand from investors, bonds will likely rally and mortgage rates should fall. However, a lackluster interest could lead to weakness in bonds and higher mortgage rates.

The first economic data of the week is September’s Goods and Service s Trade Balance report Thursday morning. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities’ proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor’s domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market compared to previous weeks unless something totally unexpected transpires. The two Treasury auctions that are of the most interest are today’s and Thursday’s since they can impact mortgage rates the most. But there is only one important report being posted and that doesn’t come until Friday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: balance report, bond, bond trading, closing, domestic currency, international investors, lackluster interest, lock, mortgage market, mortgage rates, shift funds, stock indexes, today, treasury auctions, U.S., Wednesday

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 29th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Oct. 29th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors await today’s FOMC meeting adjournment. The stock markets were trading higher earlier but are now in negative territory after yesterday’s huge rally. The Dow is currently down 32 points while the Nasdaq is down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates slightly higher.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that Durable Goods Orders for September rose 0.8% when they were expected to fall 1.0%. This means that manufacturing activity was stronger than expected, which is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, since the markets are directing their attention to today’s FOMC results, the higher than expected orders has not had much of an impact on this morning’s mortgage rates.

The FOMC meeting began yesterday and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET today. There is now a pretty large consensus that the Fed w ill lower key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but what is being debated is the size of the cut. Some analysts are calling for a .750 cut while the majority think a half-point reduction is coming. This makes the post meeting statement even more important than usual as traders will try to figure out if the Fed thinks this is the last cut or if they are prepared to make another in the future.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the Fed move and the post-meeting statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guarant eed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond market, closing, durable goods orders, Fed, fed move, Float, FOMC, fomc meeting, future look, half point, mortgage rates, negative territory, refinancing a home, today, Wednesday

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Sep. 10th

Rate Lock Advisory – Wednesday Sep. 10th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as investors sell holdings to capture profits from the recent rally. Stock gains are also contributing to the weakness in bonds with the Dow up 80 points and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, but we will likely see a slight improvement in mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Tomorrow brings us the the release of the first economic report of the week but it is not considered to be of high importance. July’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted tomorrow morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $58.0 billion, which would be an increase from June’s $56.8 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week’s releases, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates. < br />
Also tomorrow is the release of weekly unemployment figures. The Labor Department is expected to show that 440,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. A significantly higher or lower number may influence trading enough to affect mortgage rates. However, it is more likely that this release will have little impact on rates, especially with the important data that is scheduled for release Friday morning.

We will see three relevant reports posted Friday, two of which are very important to the markets. They are August’s Retail Sales report and Producer Price Index (PPI) and September’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. This makes Friday the most important day of the week, meaning we may see plenty of movement in rates Friday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my cl osing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: balance data, bond, closing, index of consumer sentiment, lock, michigan index, negative territory, producer price index, producer price index ppi, Release, relevant reports, stock gains, tomorrow, U.S., unemployment figures, Wednesday, week

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 07/13/2008 10:09:00 PM EST

This week brings us the release of six important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Throw in a couple of days of Fed testimony and we have the makings for a very interesting week. The first piece of data comes Tuesday morning with the release of June’s Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 1.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the core data reading. The bond market should react quite favorably to weaker than expected readings, but a bigger than expected jump in the core reading could send mor tgage rates higher Tuesday. June’s Retail Sales report will also be posted Tuesday. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.3% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report. Next on tap is Wednesday’s release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is a mirror of Tuesday’s PPI with the exception that the CPI measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.7% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core data is considered to be the key reading of both the PPI and CPI because they exclude more volatile food and en ergy prices, giving us a more stable measure of inflation. Higher than expected readings could raise inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher both days. June’s Industrial Production data will also be posted Wednesday morning. This data measures output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.2% rise in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector showed moderate growth during the month. A smaller than expected increase would be good news and could help push mortgage rates slightly lower Wednesday. Also worth noting about Wednesday is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members during discussion and voting at the last meeting. Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak before th e Senate Banking Committee Tuesday morning and the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday morning at 10:00am ET. His testimony will be broadcasted and will be watched very closely. Analysts and traders will be looking for the status of the economy and his expectations of future growth, particularly inflation concerns. This should create a great deal of volatility in the markets during the testimony and the question and answer session that follows. If he indicates that inflation is still a point of concern, we will likely see the bond market tank and mortgage rates rise. Thursday’s only relevant data is June’s Housing Starts report. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but is not considered to be of high importance. Analysts are currently expecting to see a small decline in new starts of housing projects. However, I don’t see this data having a much of an impact on mortgage rates Thursday unless it varies greatly f rom forecasts. Overall though, I think we will see the most movement in mortgage pricing this week on Tuesday or Wednesday due to the release of the inflation related indexes and Mr. Bernanke’s testimony those days. This weekend’s news of Fed support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely help stocks, but I am not sure of how the bond and mortgage markets will react to that news. I suspect it will be taken as positive news, but it will be interesting to see if it has a significant influence on mortgage pricing. Regardless, even without that turn of events, it will likely be an active week for mortgage rates with a fair amount of volatility. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is o nly my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, Chairman Bernanke, consumer price index, corporate earnings, fomc meeting, index cpi, lower mortgage, Mr. Bernanke, PPI, producer level, producer price index, producer price index ppi, Release, retail establishments, Testimony, Tuesday, U.S., volatile food, Wednesday, week

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/23/2008 11:47:00 AM EST

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a negative open for stocks. The stock markets are starting the week off with losses with the Dow down 10 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday. There is no relevant economic news being released today. The rest of the week will likely prove to be very active in terms of mortgage rate movement due to the economic data and other events that are scheduled. There are six economic reports scheduled for release between tomorrow and Friday, in addition to another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Together, we have the makings of a potentially volatile week in the financial and mortgage markets. Tomorrow brings us the first important report of the week with the release of June’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The CCI is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If it shows an increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see the bond market falter and mortgage rates rise slightly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading 56.0, down from last month’s 57.2 reading. The FOMC meeting begins tomorrow and will adjourn Wednesday afternoon. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, as we have seen so many times in the past, it is the post meeting statement that often creates the most volatility in the markets. They could give an opinion of the overall economy, hinting at a possible future move or lack of one. Statements like these could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing Wednesday afternoon. I suspect we will hear concerns about inflation that will lead to selling in bonds. Overall, today will likely be the quietest day of the week. The most active should be tomorrow or Wednesday to the importance of the data and FOMC meeting. Wednesday’s Durable Goods Orders could also help make it a busy day. Friday’s news may also affect mortgage rates, but likely not as much as earlier days. This would definitely be a good week to maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bernanke, bond, bond market, closing, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, economic reports, federal open market committee, future move, knee jerk reaction, lock, mortgage markets, Mr. Bernanke, open market committee, tomorrow, U.S., Wednesday, week

Weekly Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/22/2008 10:15:00 PM EST

This week will likely prove to be very active in terms of mortgage rate movement due to the economic data and other events that are scheduled. There are six economic reports scheduled for release, but in addition to the data, another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held this week. Together, we have the makings of a potentially volatile week in the financial and mortgage markets. There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. Tuesday brings us the first important report of the week with the release of June’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The CCI is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If it shows an increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see the bond market falter and mortgage rates rise slightly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading 57.0, down slightly from last month’s 57.2 reading. The only important release scheduled for Wednesday is May’s Durable Goods Orders, which gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is known to be quite volatile from month to month and is expected to show no change new orders from April to May. A decline in new orders would be the ideal scenario for the bond market and could lead to a decline in mortgage pricing Wednesday. There are two housing related reports scheduled for release this week, but neither is likely to cause any movement in mortgage rates. May’s New Home Sales will be released Wednesday morning while Existing Home Sales will be posted Thursday morning. These reports give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually do not cause much movement in mortgage rates. The FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday afternoon will adjourn Wednesday afternoon. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, as we have seen so many times in the past, it is the post meeting statement that often creates the most volatility in the markets. They could give an opinion of the overall economy, hinting at a possible future move or lack of one. Statements like these could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing Wednesday afternoon. I suspect we will hear concerns about inflation that will lead to selling in bonds. The only relevant economic data scheduled for release Thursday is the final reading to the1st Quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. The GDP data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Last month’s first revision showed a 0.9% rate of growth, but analysts are expecting to see an upward revision to 1.0%. May’s Personal Income and Outlays data will be posted Friday morning. This report gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending activity. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.4% in income and a 0.7% rise in the spending portion of the report. Smaller than expected increases should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Overall, tomorrow will likely be the quietest day of the week. The most active should be Tuesday or Wednesday to the importance of the data and FOMC meeting. Wednesday’s Durable Goods Orders could also help make it a busy day. Friday’s news may also affect mortgage rates, but likely not as much as earlier days. This would definitely be a good week to maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional. If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tags: bond, consumer confidence index, consumer confidence index cci, durable goods orders, existing home sales, federal open market committee, fomc meeting, mortgage credit, mortgage markets, Mr. Bernanke, open market committee, Release, release tomorrow, U.S., Wednesday, week